Monthly Archives: September 2020

Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Solano County COVID cases pass 6,000 – good news: over 82,000 residents tested

[For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Wednesday, September 16: 20 new cases overnight, no new deaths.  Since the outbreak started: 6,007 cases, 52 deaths.Compare previous report, Tuesday, Sept 15:Summary

  • Solano County reported 20 new cases today, total of 6,007 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last week, Solano reported 229 new cases, an average of 33 per day.
  • Deaths – no new deaths today, total of 52 Solano deaths.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 4 more ACTIVE cases today, total of 216.  Note that only 29 of these 216 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has no reporting on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons included 3 fewer individuals today, total of 29.  This despite the increase in total number hospitalized since the outbreak started, plus 3 today, total of 301.  Evidently more released than admitted (see age group hospitalization stats below).
  • ICU Beds –The County reported 43% of ICU beds available, down from 50% available yesterday and 56% on Monday.  (After 7 weeks, still no information about availability of ventilators.)
  • Testing – The County reports today that only 249 residents were tested since yesterday (fewest single-day increase since August 5), new total of 82,257.  Solano has a long way to go: only 18.4% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate remained at 3.1%.  I was skeptical about the remarkably low rate last week: our supposedly smooth 7-day moving average has been jumping all over the place lately (see note about delayed adjustments below).  For the record, two weeks ago we saw Solano rates above 7% for the first time since we peaked at 9.3% on July 22.  Last week we bottomed out at 2.7%.  The County’s line graph looks like a flat line and tells us absolutely nothing, not worth posting here.  Health officials and news reports focus on percent positive test rates as one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much more stable California 7-day test rate rose today from 3.3% to 3.6%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – only 1 new case today, total of 657 cases, representing 10.9% of the 6,007 total cases.  No new hospitalizations among this age group, a total of 5 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths.  In recent weeks it seems too many youth are ignoring public health orders.  Cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained around 11% since then.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: 1) youth numbers have increased steadily and at a faster rate than the other age groups, and 2) youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 5 youth have been hospitalized.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 11 new cases today, total of 3,607 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 60% of the 6,007 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 94 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths among this age group today, total of 4 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect his group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 4 new cases today, total of 1,150 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 6,007 total cases.
    2 new hospitalizations today, total of 82 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 8 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – On Monday, I reported Solano’s LARGEST SINGLE WEEKEND INCREASE in this age group since I began keeping records on April 20: 31 new cases, 3 new hospitalizations and 2 deaths.  The County reported 4 new cases today, and 1 new hospitalization, (no new deaths).  I believe recent increases are related to news of an outbreak at the Parkrose Gardens Alzheimer’s and Dementia care facility in Fairfield, where 31 patients and 8 staff have tested positive.  This age group’s 592 cases represent 9.9% of the 6,007 total cases.  Total hospitalizations since the pandemic began number 120 today, and deaths total 40 in this age group.  In this older age group, 20.3% of cases required hospitalization at one time.  This group accounts for 40 of the 52 deaths, or 77%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 2 new cases today, total of 155 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added no new cases today, total of 399 cases.
  • Fairfield added 6 new cases today, total of 1,961.
  • Rio Vista added no new cases today, total of 40 cases.
  • Suisun City added 1 new case today, total of 434 cases.
  • Vacaville added 5 new cases today, total of 998 cases.
  • Vallejo added 6 new cases today, total of 2,001 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas added no new cases today, total of 19 cases.

Cases, Hospitalizations & Deaths by Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinex members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 23% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 31% of cases, 32% of hospitalizations, and 27% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 21% of cases, 22% of hospitalizations and 21% of deaths.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Coronavirus, Covid 19, Fairfield CA, Senior care, Solano County CA

Fairfield COVID outbreak adds to Solano daily update: 4 hospitalized, 2 new deaths

[For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Tuesday, September 15: 50 new cases overnight, 2 new deaths.  Since the outbreak started: 5,987 cases, 52 deaths.Compare previous report, Monday, Sept 14:Summary

  • Solano County reported 50 new cases today, total of 5,987 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last week, Solano reported 225 new cases, an average of 32 per day.
  • Deaths – 2 new deaths today, total of 52 Solano deaths.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 4 more ACTIVE cases today, total of 212.  Note that only 32 of these 212 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has no reporting on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons included 1 fewer individuals today, total of 32.  This despite the increase in total number hospitalized since the outbreak started, plus 4 today, total of 298.  Evidently more released than admitted (see age group hospitalization stats below).
  • ICU Beds –The County reported 50% of ICU beds available, down from 56% available yesterday.  (After 7 weeks, still no information about availability of ventilators.)
  • Testing – The County reports today that 649 more residents were tested since yesterday, new total of 82,008.  Solano has a long way to go: only 18.3% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate: TOPSY TURVY … DOWN AGAIN

Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate fell overnight by 1.8% from 4.9% to 3.1%.  I was skeptical about the remarkably low rate last week: our supposedly smooth 7-day moving average has been jumping all over the place lately (see note about delayed adjustments below).  For the record, two weeks ago we saw Solano rates above 7% for the first time since we peaked at 9.3% on July 22.  Last week we bottomed out at 2.7%.  The County’s line graph looks like a flat line and tells us absolutely nothing, so I decided today that it isn’t worth posting here.  Health officials and news reports focus on percent positive test rates as one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much more stable California 7-day test rate fell slightly today from 3.5% to 3.3%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 5 new case today, total of 656 cases, representing 11% of the 5,987 total cases.  No new hospitalizations among this age group, a total of 5 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths.  In recent weeks it seems too many youth are ignoring public health orders.  Cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained at 11% since then.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: 1) youth numbers have increased steadily and at a faster rate than the other age groups, and 2) youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 5 youth have been hospitalized.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 27 new cases today, total of 3,596 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 60% of the 5,987 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 94 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths among this age group today, total of 4 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect his group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 12 new cases today, total of 1,146 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 5,987 total cases.
    1 new hospitalization today, total of 80 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  1 new death in this age group today, a total of 8 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – Yesterday, I reported Solano’s LARGEST SINGLE WEEKEND INCREASE in this age group since I began keeping records on April 20: 31 new cases, 3 new hospitalizations and 2 deaths.  The outbreak continues: 7 new cases today, 3 new hospitalizations and 1 new death.  Now we can report that this is almost assuredly related to news of an outbreak at the Parkrose Gardens Alzheimer’s and Dementia care facility in Fairfield, where 31 patients and 8 staff have tested positive.  This age group’s 588 cases represent 9.8% of the 5,987 total cases.  Total hospitalizations since the pandemic began number 119 today, and deaths total 40 in this age group.  In this older age group, 20.2% of cases required hospitalization at one time.  This group accounts for 40 of the 52 deaths, or 77%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 5 new cases today, total of 153 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 1 new cases today, total of 399 cases.
  • Fairfield added 15 new cases today, total of 1,955.
  • Rio Vista added no new cases today, total of 40 cases.
  • Suisun City added 4 new cases today, total of 433 cases.
  • Vacaville added 4 new cases today, total of 993 cases.
  • Vallejo added 21 new cases today, total of 1,995 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas added no new cases today, total of 19 cases.

Cases, Hospitalizations & Deaths by Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinex members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 23% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 31% of cases, 33% of hospitalizations, and 27% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 20% of cases, 22% of hospitalizations and 21% of deaths.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

2020 elections, Benicia elections, Valero PAC

Valero shells out its first $20,000 – for phone calls and polling data

By Roger Straw, September 15, 2020
The Valero Benicia PAC reported on September 12 that it has paid $20,000 to WINNING CONNECTIONS of Washington, D.C. for election polling data and live phone calls.

Brace yourself – OIL INDUSTRY MONEY is about to phone you… LIVE from Washington, D.C.!

A friend asked me, “Do you know whether Valero has yet spent its $250,000 and in what way?”

So I took a look at the City of Benicia’s Campaign Finance Reports page, and the answer is YES:

  • The Valero PAC reported that it spent $8,468 as of June 30 on legal and accounting expenses (Semi_Annual_Form_460_2.pdf.)
  • AND MUCH MORE IMPORTANTLY…
    The Valero PAC reported last Saturday Sept 12 that they have laid out their first BIG campaign expense of $20,000, for “LIVE CALLS & DATA, WINNING CONNECTIONS, 317 Pennsylvania Ave, 2nd Floor, Washington, DC” (Form_496_1.pdf_Redacted.pdf)

NOTE that Valero and friends used this same company to provide data and make offensive and disparaging phone calls against Kari Birdseye in 2018.  The company had to defend itself against charges of orchestrating a PUSH POLL.  Documentation: see p. 7 of this 2018 Valero PAC campaign report.

Winning Connections appeared in these five Benicia Independent posts during the 2018 election.

2020 elections, Benicia elections, Climate Change, Crude By Rail, Economic diversification, Environmental crisis, Oil Industry, Oil trains, Valero Benicia Refinery

Game Over for the Oil Industry, What Will Benicia Do?

Emergency flaring at Valero Benicia Refinery, May 5, 2017. (Chris Riley/Times-Herald)
By Grant Cooke, Benicia resident and President, AgTech Blends, September 14, 2020
Grant Cooke

During the 2016 resistance to Valero’s horrendous attempt to bring crude oil by rail into Benicia, I urged the city council to rethink its dependence on Valero for the bulk of its tax support. I suggested then that we move away from being a “company town” to one that embraced a more knowledge-based economic model with a diversified tax base.

I pointed out that as the world’s industrial nations shift from carbon-driven economies that threatened severe climate disruption and environmental catastrophe to a clean energy driven model, those mega-trend shifts would have significant impact on our little town.

I noted that the era of the Bay Area’s refineries was drawing to a close and that most—including Valero—would be closed before mid-century.

It was not a popular observation, even though at the time there was a rumor that all five Bay Area refineries were for sale, but title couldn’t change hands because the environmental cleanup was prohibitive. Besides, the oil industry’s business model of ever-increasing demand was suspect.

Well, then the nation’s leadership banked a hard right, the Environmental Protection Agency was gutted, the heavy oil interests broke free, and the carbon boys rode tall as the U.S. became a net exporter and one of the world’s major oil producers.

2019 saw the highpoint. Production was up 11 percent to new historic U.S. highs of over 12 million barrels per day. In 2018 Brent Crude’s price was over $70 per barrel. It slipped to $65 per barrel in 2019, but production was at a fever pitch.

And then it all collapsed. The Saudis and the Russians did a circular firing squad, OPEC stumbled, supply burgeoned, the novel coronavirus hit, and the U.S. economy tanked. At this spring’s lows, Brent Crude dropped to about $34 per barrel.

Now that the Saudis and Russians have given up their battle, Brent has budged a bit to $44 per barrel.

With the economic collapse so too has the demand for gasoline. Storage is full, demand is way down, supply is way up.

Valero as a refiner makes money when oil prices slide. As long as supply increases and oil prices drop but demand for gas is constant, money is made, profits are up, bonuses and dividends are paid.

Back in June 2018, Valero was in its glory, and the stock price was a couple of cents under $127 per share. The fall was ugly. By April 2020, it broke down to around $31. It has since rebounded a bit—what the financial folks colorfully describe as a Dead Cat bounce—to the mid-$50s. Most likely, it will turn down again and the dividend will be reduced.

What’s equally as devastating to Valero and the oil industry, is that Covid-19 and the subsequent economic collapse has pushed clean energy forward into the nation’s recovery plans. A huge national infrastructure plan is on the horizon, much of it encompassing renewable energy.

This is the TESLA tsunami with its market cap of $144 billion, and the growing consumer recognition that e-vehicles are better, faster, and cleaner than gas-powered cars. E-vehicles and hybrids are the growing segment of the auto market.

About 13 percent of California’s vehicles are e-vehicles or hybrids, and the percentage is growing with the state’s goal of 5 million zero emission vehicles on the road by 2030.

Pickups and commercial vehicles like trucks and forklifts are turning to electric motors for their increased power and torque. Even in the mining industry, electric, autonomous vehicles are being phased in to reduce costs and improve efficiency.

Eventually, there won’t be any more diesel trucks idling in Oakland’s port, and the incidence of asthma will drop significantly in nearby neighborhoods.

The oil industry needs to look no further for discouraging news than the recent announcement by General Motors, the largest U.S. automaker, that it is converting most of its fleet to electric power. Led by Cadillac, GM intends to have 20 electric nameplates by 2023, including an electric Hummer and a rumored Corvette that will hit 200 mph to compete with the 2021 Ford Mustang Mach-E.

Further, Southern California’s Hyperion just introduced the XP-1, a mind-blowing mega car powered by hydrogen with a top speed over 220 mph and a range of 1,000 miles on a tank of hydrogen. Europe already has hydrogen-powered buses, and hydrogen fuel cell technology will only hasten the development of carbon-free vehicles.

Finally, and what really should worry Valero and Benicia, is that Phillips 66 just announced that they are converting the Rodeo facility from refining crude oil to a renewable fuels plant using cooking oil and food wastes to produce motor fuels. The conversion should be finished in 2024.

The oil industry is not known for its vision and if Phillips sees that the carbon era is over, most likely it is.

As the world transitions away from carbon energy, the remaining crude-based Bay Area refineries will suffer, and some will lock their gates. The money isn’t there for the environmental cleanup, so the cities—Benicia, Martinez, Pinole, Richmond—will be left without tax revenue and worse, holding the bag for the hazardous waste.

The November election is critical for our nation, and equally important for our town. Some city council candidates are being funded by the oil industry, in a last-ditch effort to cement political power and influence, preserve profits, and probably re-introduce a Crude-by-Rail agenda.

The oil industry and union Political Action Committee, or PAC, has in fact set aside $250,000 this year to steer the 2020 election to their chosen candidates. It would be tragic for Benicia’s if they succeed.

The future for Benicia is not in clinging to the century-long carbon industry that is in decline. Benicia’s future is, or at least should be, in the knowledge-based economy. Science, technology and innovation are the drivers that create wealth and municipal security in the Bay Area. That is where the future is, not in the gas pumps.

Benicia is facing a severe challenge. The carbon-based tax structure that supported its amiable lifestyle with a full range of municipal services is ending.

Allowing a last gasp effort by the oil industry to control the city’s future is a terrible idea. That game is, and should be, over.

I’m voting for and supporting Steve Young for mayor. (And no, Steve has not approved this message.)

Grant Cooke is a Benicia resident and co-author of two books:
By Woodrow Clark II and Grant Cooke, published by Elsevier and available at Amazon:
Grant Cooke
President, AgTech Blends
https://agtechblends.com