Virus surges: ICU beds filling up in hard-hit spots; Bay Area shutdown likely mid-December

Newsom to impose new stay-at-home orders in California’s hardest-hit areas

[see map below]
A masked Los Gatos woman who declined to share her name waits to see a doctor after being admitted to the Emergency Department at Good Samaritan Hospital in San Jose, Calif. Friday, July 31, 2020 where doctors are currently treating twelve COVID-19 patients in various states of severity. Photo: Jessica Christian / The Chronicle
San Francisco Chronicle, Alexei Koseff, Peter Fimrite, Dec. 3, 2020

SACRAMENTO — Vast swaths of California will fall under new shutdown orders in the coming weeks after Gov. Gavin Newsom announced additional restrictions Thursday to try to slow the coronavirus surge in areas where intensive care unit capacity is dwindling.

Newsom said he was “pulling the emergency brake” to help California through a third surge of the pandemic, one he hoped would be a final ordeal before a coronavirus vaccine becomes widely available after the winter months.

“The bottom line is if we don’t act now, our hospital system will be overwhelmed. If we don’t act now, we’ll continue to see a death rate climb, more lives lost,” Newsom said during a news briefing. But, he added, “There is light at the end of this tunnel. We are not in a permanent state.”

The orders, which do not immediately impact the Bay Area, will close personal care services such as hair and nail salons, playgrounds, bars and wineries, movie theaters, museums and zoos in places where fewer than 15% of intensive care unit beds are available across an entire region. ICU capacity will be tracked in five regions: Bay Area, rural Northern California, Greater Sacramento, San Joaquin Valley and Southern California, stretching from San Luis Obispo to the Mexican border.

Retailers, grocery stores and other businesses in those regions that are allowed to remain open will have to operate at 20% capacity, and restaurants will be able to offer only takeout or delivery. No outdoor or indoor dining will be allowed. Schools that have received a waiver to reopen can continue to offer in-person classes.

The orders will remain in effect for at least three weeks after the state imposes them and can be lifted only if the available ICU capacity in the region is projected to rise above 15% again within four weeks after that. At that point, counties in the region will return to one of the state’s current color tiers, with associated restrictions, based on their individual case rates.

Dr. Grant Colfax, director of the San Francisco Department of Public Health, said Thursday that the city is considering issuing orders similar to the new state edict even before the city hits the 15% ICU mark. Alameda County public health officials Thursday indicated they may follow that same path, issuing stronger restrictions before the state takes action.

“Everything is on the table at this point,” Colfax said. “It is likely that we will take additional steps consistent with the governor’s orders soon.”

As of Thursday, the Bay Area region had 25.3% of its ICU beds available, the state said.

Whether San Francisco or other Bay Area counties move faster than the state prescribes depends on the trajectory of hospitalizations and case rates across the region, Colfax said. At the current rate, the city will run out of ICU beds on Dec. 26, Colfax said.

“And that’s without accounting for what we expect from Thanksgiving,” he said. “We are doing relatively well compared to the rest of the state, but the virus is spreading like wildfire across the state, and if we run out of beds, whether it’s San Francisco or Santa Clara (County), there is not going to be capacity to put people in beds outside the region.”

The state is also reinstating a ban on all nonessential travel statewide, a move intended to reduce mixing between households and discourage family gatherings ahead of the holidays. It includes an exemption for outdoor exercise.

“Today’s message is not about how do we mix safely,” said Mark Ghaly, secretary of California’s Health and Human Services Agency. “It’s about how we reduce our mixing altogether — staying at home unless it is absolutely essential.”

Newsom said the Bay Area will probably fall below the ICU threshold for new shutdowns by mid-December. The state defined Bay Area in this matter as San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Sonoma, Marin, Napa, Solano, Santa Cruz and Monterey counties.

Other parts of the state are expected to come under the stay-at-home order even sooner.

The moves come as California struggles with a dramatic rise in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, which has already forced Bay Area counties to crack down on community activities. Much of the state and every Bay Area county except Marin have instituted curfews prohibiting nonessential activity between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m.

As of Thursday afternoon, the nine-county Bay Area had recorded 158,554 cases and 1,996 deaths since the pandemic began. The numbers have exploded over the past month.

The region averaged nearly 1,600 new cases per day for the week that ended Nov. 29, an increase of more than 33% over the previous week, according to a Chronicle data analysis. The Bay Area set an ignominious record in November, averaging 1,158 new cases a day, an average that increased to 1,500 a day over the last two weeks of the month. That’s compared to 480 new cases a day in October. The previous high for a month was 1,061 per day in August.

On Monday, following the Thanksgiving holiday, the Bay Area reported 2,500 cases, by far the most in a single day since the start of the health crisis.

Peter Chin-Hong, a professor of medicine and infectious diseases at UCSF, said Newsom’s order was not as drastic as it could have been. He said the governor could issue blanket restrictions but suspects he limited the order to preserve the economy.

Still, he said, the fact that there are hospitals in California with less than 15% capacity in their intensive care units is disturbing.

“For me it illustrates very loudly that this third surge in California is very different than the other two,” Chin-Hong said. “There is no room for complacency. I’m scared. Now everybody is hurting, so there is no give in the system.”

The surge is happening in every Bay Area county, but Chin-Hong said Santa Clara County is likely to be the hardest hit by the regulations, at least right away.

With nearly 2,000 COVID-19 patients in hospitals, only 44 ICU beds are available countywide, officials said. Dr. Sara Cody, the county health officer, said the county is in danger of running out of beds if the current trend continues.

One indication of Santa Clara County’s trouble is the fast-spreading outbreaks at long-term care facilities.

Dr. George Han, the county’s deputy public health officer, said Thursday that 151 people recently tested positive at the Amberwood Gardens skilled nursing center. Sixty have tested positive since Nov. 23, including four staffers, at San Jose’s Boccardo Reception Center. Fourteen tested positive there Wednesday.

Han said the infected residents and those with exposure were put up in hotels. It was the county’s first large-scale outbreak at a homeless shelter, but it wasn’t the only one. Seven people have tested positive since Nov. 18 at South Hall, a shelter in San Jose.

“We have seen an increase recently in all these settings,” said Han, who attributed the increase to a rise in cases throughout the community. “It is more dangerous right now in our community than at any other point in the pandemic.”

In an attempt to quell the spread, Santa Clara County issued a travel directive Monday requiring a 14-day quarantine for people who travel into the county from a distance greater than 150 miles.

The disease is rampant in San Francisco, which reported 209 new infections on Thursday, a count not seen since the summer surge in July. It brought the total cases in the city to 16,001 since the start of the pandemic. The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 in San Francisco has increased 45% in the past week, and cases have more than quadrupled over a month.

The daily average of new cases in California climbed above 15,000 in the past week, Newsom said, and the number of deaths is rising again, as well. The state saw back-to-back days of more than 100 deaths this week, including 113 on Wednesday, the governor said. A month ago, the daily total was 14 deaths.

Newsom said that without further public health interventions, the state could run out of capacity in intensive care units by Christmas Eve if the surge continues at its current rate. About three-quarters of ICU beds are full, nearly 25% with COVID-19 patients.

Restaurant owners were relieved that Newsom did not shut down outdoor dining statewide at once, an option the governor could have considered.

“I was prepared for the worst, but I’m relieved that the governor made some concessions for restaurants to allow us to try to stay afloat,” said Rocco Biale, the owner of Rocco’s Ristorante Pizzeria in Walnut Creek. “It’s a break for the restaurant industry. Let’s see how long it can last.”

Los Angeles County and the city of Los Angeles adopted their own modified stay-at-home orders this week, largely prohibiting people from gathering outside their immediate households but allowing retail businesses, parks, beaches, golf courses and tennis courts to remain open.

Republican leaders immediately slammed the new order as excessively harsh and questioned the scientific rationale behind the move.

“Gov. Newsom continues to disrupt life as we know it without releasing the full data behind his decisions or showing the impact his actions are having on our lives,” state Senate Republican Leader Shannon Grove of Bakersfield said in a statement. “The governor owes the state leadership that is committed to transparency and accountability.”

Recognizing that frustration has mounted across the state with his quickly changing restrictions, Newsom practically begged Californians to take the latest order seriously.

“This is the time, if there was any doubt, to put aside your doubt,” he said, “to put aside your skepticism, to put aside your cynicism, to put aside your ideology, to put aside any consideration except this: Lives are in the balance. Lives will be lost, unless we do more than we’ve ever done.”

San Francisco Chronicle staff writers Erin Allday and Michael Williams contributed to this report.

Solano County COVID surge continues – new record of 1,062 active cases, new record of 15.8% positive test rate


[Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard.  For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVEALSO see important daily updates from another source, COVID19.CA.GOV: here on the BenIndy at Cases and Deaths AND Hospitalizations.]

Thursday, December 3: 162 (!) new cases overnight, no deaths.  Since February: 11,119 cases, at least 603 hospitalized, 81 deaths.Compare previous report, Wednesday, Dec. 2:Summary

  • Solano County reported 162 (!) new cases overnight.  As of today, Solano has seen an average of 122 new cases per day over the last 14 days! (source: covid19.ca.gov Total of 11,119 cases since the outbreak started.
  • Deaths – no new deaths reported today, a total of 81 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 106 (!) more active cases today.  New total of 1,062 active cases – a record high for Solano County Active cases have increased alarmingly lately – COMPARE: average number of Active Cases during October was 284 – today we are at 1,062!!  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – (For best info, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.)  CAUTION ON COUNTY REPORTING: According to Solano Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas, the County occasionally updates Age Group hospitalizations retroactively, adding substantial numbers.  Thus, many hospitalizations are never reported as CURRENTLY hospitalized.  So the County’s daily updates on hospitalizations are nearly meaningless. Today, Solano County reported the number of CURRENTLY hospitalized persons decreased by 3, total of 62. TOTAL hospitalized since the outbreak began supposedly remained unchanged todaya total of 603 of all ages hospitalized since the outbreak began.  The County will likely change this figure at a later date.  [For my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.]
  • ICU Beds(For detailed info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.)  The County reported an increase in ICU beds available today, up from 33% to 40%.
  • Testing – The County reports today that 1,078 residents were tested since yesterday, a total of 129,396 unduplicated residents tested for COVID-19 since the outbreak began.  28.9% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate – Solano record high of 15.8%

Solano County reported a new record high 7-day average positive test rate of 15.8% today, up from yesterday’s 13.6% – and far and away over the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate has also been on the rise lately, and rose substantially today from 7.3% to 7.7%(Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group
  • Youth 17 and under – 14 new cases today, total of 1,271 cases, representing 11.4% of the 11,119 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today among this age group.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age groupBut cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 14 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 102 new cases today, total of 6,487 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents just under 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 194 have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this young group today, total of 6 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 33 new cases today, total of 2,182 cases.  This age group represents nearly 20% of the 11,119 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 162 have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 15 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 13 new cases today, total of 1,173, representing 10.6% of Solano’s 11,119 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 233 have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, total of 60 of our elders who died of COVID, accounting for 74% of Solano’s 81 total deaths.
City Data
  • Benicia added 3 new cases today, total of 293 cases since the outbreak began. 
  • Dixon added 18 new cases today, total of 787 cases.
  • Fairfield added 35 new cases today, total of 3,338 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 1 new case today, total of 95 cases.
  • Suisun City added 15 new cases today, total of 770 cases.
  • Vacaville added 40 new cases today, total of 2,295 cases.
  • Vallejo added 50 new cases today, total of 3,501 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 40 cases.
Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 10% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, but 16% of hospitalizations, and 23% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 22% of cases, 26% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 26% of cases, 28% of hospitalizations and 33% of deaths.
More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is USUALLY full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Solano County hospitalizations on 2020-12-02: 67 positive patients, 21 in ICU, more suspected

By Roger Straw, December 3, 2020

12 ICU beds remain available

The State of California’s  COVID19.CA.GOV website is an incredibly rich resource for daily updates with latest data on hospitalizations (and much more) – both for the State and by individual Counties.

Each day the State updates the numbers along with “Change from Prior Day” and “14-Day Rolling Average.”  Below is a summary, followed by a screenshot of today’s results.  The CURRENT data on the CA.GOV Hospitalizations page provides much more by simply hovering over various components.

Today CA.GOV showed Solano County COVID19 hospitalizations as of yesterday, Tuesday November 2:

  • 67 Positive Patients (2 fewer than previous day, 14 day rolling average of 62)
  • 11 additional Suspected Patients (1 fewer than previous day, 14 day rolling average of 11)
  • 21 ICU Positive Patients (same as previous day, 14 day rolling average of 16)
  • 2 additional ICU Suspected Patients (1 fewer than previous day, 14 day rolling average of 2)
  • 12 ICU Available Beds (same as previous day)
As of yesterday, Tuesday, December 2, 2020
Previous day’s report – data as of Tuesday, December 1, 2020