By Roger Straw, January 25, 2021
[From Solano County Public Health and others, see sources below.  For a running archive of daily County updates, see my Excel ARCHIVE. 

I have NO IDEA why we should not continue to STAY AT HOME…

Monday, January 25: 547 new Solano cases over the weekend, 4 new deaths.  Since Feb: 27,041 cases, over 800 hospitalized, 115 deaths.Compare previous report, Friday, Jan. 22:Summary

• • Solano County reported 547 new cases over the weekend.  Total of 27,041 cases since the outbreak started.
  • Deaths – 4 new deaths reported today, one young person aged 18-49 and 3 persons over 65 years of age, a total of 115 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 453 fewer active cases today, a total of 1,717 active cases.  Compare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases during October was 284, average in November was 650, in December 1,658 – and TODAY we are at 1,717.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Or do we just sit back and wait for a voluntary 10 day quarantine to expire.  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – (See expanding ICU capacity below.)  Today, Solano reported 8 fewer currently hospitalized cases, total of 152, and no change in hospitalizations among the age groups.  We will have to wait for the County’s “occasional” large group of updated numbers on hospitalizations among the age groups.  Even then, accuracy cannot be certain – note…
    >>In a December 31 Fairfield Daily Republic article, reporter Todd Hanson wrote, “Since the start of the pandemic, and as of Wednesday, 9,486 residents have been hospitalized.”  This startling number is far and away above the number of residents hospitalized as indicated in the count of age group hospitalizations, and not available anywhere on the County’s COVID-19 dashboard.  Asked about his source, Hanson replied that Solano Public Health “had to do a little research on my behalf.”  It would be good if the County could add Total Hospitalized to its daily Dashboard update.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.  For COVID19-CA.GOV numbers, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.]
  • ICU Beds – Solano County Public Health reports that Solano hospitals recently expanded their ICU capacity [see Benicia Independent, “Why the sudden improvement in our ICU bed numbers?“]  Even with the expanded ICU capacity, Solano County reported a sharp drop in ICU beds available today, down from 26% Friday, to 15% today, continuing in the YELLOW DANGER ZONE.  >> COVID19-CA.GOV reported today that Solano County had ONLY 2 AVAILABLE ICU BEDS as of yesterday, January 24.  (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)

Positive Test Rate – SOLANO TEST RATE REMAINS ALARMINGLY HIGH, 20% – VIRUS STILL SPREADING, STAY HOME!

Solano County reported our 7-day average positive test at an alarming rate of 20%, down a bit from Friday’s 20.7%, but still 2 ½ times the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  COMPARE: The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was down significantly from Friday’s 8.9% to 8.0% today.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group – The surge continues…

• Youth 17 and under – 72 new cases over the weekend, total of 3,144 cases, representing 11.6% of the 27,041 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today among this age group, total of 17 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 17 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 275 new cases over the weekend, total of 14,934 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 55.2% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 241 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Solano recorded 1 new death in this young group today, total of 8 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 122 new cases over the weekend, total of 5,648 cases.  This age group represents 20.9% of the 27,041  total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 217 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were reported in this age group today, a total of 18 deaths.
• Persons 65 years or older – 78 new cases over the weekend, total of 3,304, representing a high of 12.2% of Solano’s 27,041 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today, a total of 328 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  3 new deaths were reported in this age group today.  A total of 89 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 77% of Solano’s 115 total deaths.

City Data

• Benicia added 17 new cases over the weekend, total of 759 cases since the outbreak began.
• Dixon added 26 new cases over the weekend, total of 1,615 cases.
• Fairfield added 125 new cases over the weekend, total of 7,499 cases.
• Rio Vista added 12 new cases over the weekend, total of 259 cases.
• Suisun City added 39 new cases over the weekend, total of 1,849 cases.
• Vacaville added 188 new cases over the weekend, total of 7,117 cases.
• Vallejo added 140 new cases over the weekend, total of 7,860 cases.
• Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 83 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 17% of hospitalizations, and 22% of deaths.
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 12% of cases, 22% of hospitalizations, and 15% of deaths.
• Multi-race / Others are 7% of Solano’s population, but account for 35% of cases, 18% of hospitalizations, and 12% of deaths.
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 29% of cases, 29% of hospitalizations and 33% of deaths.

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More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

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