While much of the nine-county Bay Area has seen fairly steady and minimal growth in the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, Solano County just recorded its single biggest one-day jump in cases.
Solano County Health Officer Dr. Bela MatyasSFiST, by Jay Barmann, June 18, 2020
On Wednesday, Solano County added 105 new cases to its tally, a rise of 15 percent for a cumulative total of 792. The county’s Daily Republic newspaper spoke to Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas explains that the jump reflects a backlog of suspected cases under investigation which he decided to add to the total yesterday. And he suggests that while there is “no evidence” to suggest that the reopening of restaurants and other businesses is to blame for the uptick, he betrays a bit of trepidation about how the public is handling the reopening in the county.
“When I drive around town, I get the sense that it is pre-COVID,” he tells the paper, noting that he sees a lot of social gatherings happening without precautions.
Matyas blames those gatherings along with recent protest marches and a group of cases that originated in vineyards across the county line in Napa for the uptick in confirmed cases.
46 of the new cases were found in Fairfield — where, according to Matyas, many of the infected vineyard workers live — and 34 cases were found in Vallejo, where a week of sometimes violent protests rocked the city two weeks ago. Overall, Vallejo has been home to nearly half of all the county’s confirmed cases to date — 371 in total.
Matyas was one of the early naysayers about region-wide lockdowns that occurred in March, and was notably the last of the nine Bay Area health officers to institute strict shelter-in-place orders. When he did, he called it a “stay-at-home” order, and he still expressed skepticism that workplaces with cubicles were at all dangerous for the spread of the coronavirus.
Here he is on March 17:
Solano County opened its restaurants for indoor dining back on May 21, two months ahead of the current date set for indoor dining in San Francisco, which is July 13.
The total number of hospitalizations from COVID-19 in Solano County has remained low — it went down to 10 last week from 14, and has remained there since — with 97 people hospitalized since the pandemic began. The county has also seen one of the lowest number of deaths in the Bay Area, with 23, though Napa and Sonoma Counties are tied for the lowest, with four apiece.
San Francisco Chronicle, by Joe Garofoli, June 18, 2020
Demonstrators take a knee in an intersection, blocking traffic, and have a moment of silence for 8 minutes and 46 seconds during a protest organized by a group of young people to support Black Lives Matter on June 16, 2020 in Mill Valley, Calif. Photo: Kate Munsch / Special to The Chronicle
While three of California’s biggest local police unions are taking out full-page newspaper ads promising to back reforms, other law enforcement organizations have pumped more than $2 million into a November ballot measure that would partially overturn laws that some call models for reforming the criminal justice system.
Police unions have contributed more than half the nearly $4 million raised for the Reducing Crime and Keeping California Safe Act campaign. The ballot initiative would roll back provisions in three measures that were aimed at reducing the state’s prison population, including Proposition 47, a voter-approved 2014 initiative that reclassified several felony crimes as misdemeanors.
The measure would change Prop. 47 by allowing prosecutors to charge a defendant with a felony for a third offense of stealing something worth more than $250. Prop. 47 raised the felony threshold for theft to $950 from $450.
“It is a measured approach to correct the problems we had with Prop. 47,” said Brian Marvel, president of the Peace Officers Research Association of California, the state’s largest law enforcement labor organization, representing more than 77,000 public safety workers.
The ballot measure would also change parts of AB109, a 2011 law that transferred the responsibility for many nonviolent felons from state prisons to county jails. It would require the Board of Parole Hearings to consider an inmate’s whole criminal history when deciding on parole, not just the person’s most recent crime.
The initiative would also alter Proposition 57, a 2016 ballot measure that made it easier for nonviolent felons to win parole. It would expand the list of crimes that would not be eligible for early parole to include felony domestic violence and other violations.
“There were some good pieces in Prop. 47 and 57, but it was overly broad,” Marvel said.
Prop. 47 and the other two measures were part of the response to a 2011 federal court order that California cut the number of inmates in its overcrowded prisons by 34,000 within two years.
In this photo taken Friday, Feb. 13, 2015, Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced talks with Assemblywoman Melissa Melendez, R-Lake Elsinore, at the Capitol in Sacramento, Calif. Four months after California voters approved Proposition 47, which reduced penalties for certain crimes, state lawmakers and law enforcement officials are lining up to repeal portions they say went too far. Gray and Melendez have introduced legislation that would restore the felony charge for stealing guns, if the measure is approved by the Legislature and by voters next year. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)
Prop. 47 has also helped to steer money away from incarceration. The law required that the state spend the money it saved by not imprisoning more nonviolent felons on social and educational programs — an example of “defund the police” initiatives that many reformers are calling for now. This year, the state will redirect nearly $103 million in this way, according to the California Department of Finance.
Reform advocates say the November ballot measure would be difficult to square economically with a state budget that has plunged into the red with the coronavirus pandemic. A report to be released Thursday by the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice, a nonpartisan organization in San Francisco that works to reduce reliance on incarceration, found that the changes proposed by the ballot measure could cost California “hundreds of millions of dollars in new annual costs” to take care of more people in prison and monitor more felons on probation.
In San Francisco, the measure could mean up to $7.5 million in additional annual costs, and Alameda County’s total could rise by $26 million, the study found.
“It’s a prison spending scam at a time when we are actively closing prisons and reallocating funds toward what’s needed in communities,” said Dan Newman, a political strategist who is working on the opposition campaign. “They’re doubling down on solidifying their places on the wrong side of history at a critical moment.”
Demonstrators march onto a Hwy 101 overpass during a protest organized by a group of young people to support Black Lives Matter on June 16, 2020 in Mill Valley, Calif. Photo: Kate Munsch / Special to The Chronicle
The ballot measure’s supporters started the initiative campaign long before the Minneapolis police killing of George Floyd touched off anti-brutality protests across the country, and they’re not changing their approach now.
“Why should we? We just want reform, too” said Kelli Reid, a consultant to the campaign.
The campaign’s website says the past decade’s changes have led to “an explosion of serial theft and an inability of law enforcement to prosecute these crimes effectively.” The initiative’s proponents say they want to change parole rules because “parolees who repeatedly violate the terms of their parole currently face few consequences, allowing them to remain on the street.”
“If I stab you or beat you with a baseball bat, those are considered nonviolent crimes under the penal code (now),” said Assemblyman Jim Cooper, D-Elk Grove (Sacramento County), a former Sacramento County sheriff’s captain who supports the measure. “These are not crazy things we’re proposing.”
A 2018 study by the Public Policy Institute of California, however, found “no evidence that violent crime increased as a result of Proposition 47.” The report did find that “it may have contributed to a rise in larceny thefts, which increased by roughly 9 percent” from 2014 to 2016.
Some leading Prop. 47 advocates see a contrast between the ballot measure and promises by local police unions to back changes in law enforcement.
Matyas: “no evidence that opening the businesses in the county has been a big part of the spike.”
Official blames unpermitted social gatherings for spike Solano in Covid-19 numbers
Fairfield Daily Republic, by Todd R. Hansen, June 18, 2020
Demonstrators march down Texas Street in Fairfield while protesting the death May 25 of George Floyd while in police custody in Minneapolis, Minn., Tuesday, June 2, 2020. (Aaron Rosenblatt/Daily Republic)
FAIRFIELD — Solano County Public Health reported Wednesday that waiting for paperwork from state laboratories on suspected Covid-19 cases was delaying investigations into how transmissions were being made.
“I just decided the delays were just too big and we are wasting too much time to do the investigations,” Dr. Bela Matyas, the public health officer, said in a Wednesday phone interview.
So he decided to count those cases – resulting in a spike of 105 new cases in Wednesday’s update.
Matyas said he fully expects that some of the numbers will be dialed back, but having timely investigations was more important.
The numbers also indicated the active cases climbed from 70 in Tuesday’s report to 132 in Wednesday’s update, a gain of 62.
However, there were no new deaths and the number of residents who are hospitalized with the disease decreased from 14 to 10, the county reported. There have been 97 hospitalizations since the outbreak started, the county reported.
“When I drive around town, I get the sense that it is pre-Covid.” – Dr. Bela Matyas
Matyas said there are three primary sources of the transmissions: dozens of vineyard cases out of Napa and Sonoma counties involving mostly Fairfield residents; graduation parties and other as-of-yet unpermitted social gatherings; and the recent protest marches.
“When I drive around town, I get the sense that it is pre-Covid,” Matyas said of the social gatherings.
He said there is no evidence that opening the businesses in the county has been a big part of the spike.
The report also reflects 1,381 additional tests having been completed.
Despite the big number shifts, Rio Vista and the unincorporated areas of the county continue to be reported as having fewer than 10 cases apiece.
However, one of the 105 new cases was found in one of those jurisdictions.
Fairfield experienced the highest increase with 46 new cases, bringing the city’s total to 219, or 27.7% of the 792 cases in the county.
Vallejo added 34 cases for a total of 371, or 46.8% of all cases in Solano.
Vacaville has 98 cases, 16 new, while Suisun City added five to reach 51 and Dixon added three for a total of 17. Benicia stayed at 25 cases.
Most people who have Covid-19 experience only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. Some people, especially older adults and those with underlying health problems, experience more severe illness such as pneumonia and at times, death.
The vast majority of people recover. The World Health Organization reports people with mild illness recover in about two weeks, while those with more severe illness may take three to six weeks to recover.
Wednesday, June 17: 105 new positive cases, no new deaths. Total 792 cases, 23 deaths.
Solano County Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Updates and Resources. Check out basic information in this screenshot. IMPORTANT: The County’s interactive page has more. On the County website, you can hover your mouse over the charts at right for detailed information.
Solano County reported a one-day record of 105 new positive cases today, total of 792 cases.
No new deaths today, total of 23.
Another one-day record of 62 additional active cases since yesterday, total 132.
Testing – 1,381 residents were tested since yesterday, quite likely yet another one-day record for Solano.
Youth – 12 new cases today among the 17 and under age group, total 52. There have been 47 new cases among Solano youth in the last 35 days, with only 6 new cases over the 5 weeks prior.
BY AGE GROUP
12 new cases! among those 17 and under, total of 52 cases, including one hospitalization. With today’s 12 new cases, our concern is heightened: there have been 47 new cases among those age 17 and under in the last 35 days, with only 6 new cases over the 5 weeks prior! And cases among youth have increased in recent weeks to 6.6% of the 792 total confirmed cases.
67 new cases! …among persons 18-49 years of age, total of 406 cases. 2 new hospitalizations, no new deaths, total of 26 hospitalized at one time and 2 deaths. This age group now represents over 50% of the 792 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups. 26 of the 406 cases in this age group have been hospitalized at one time, 6.4% of total cases in the age group.
22 new cases! among persons 50-64 years of age, total of 186 cases. 1 new hospitalization, no new deaths, total of 31 hospitalized at one time and 3 deaths. This age group represents 23.5% of the 792 total cases. 31 of the 186 cases in this age group have been hospitalized at one time, 16.7% of total cases in the age group.
4 new casesamong persons 65 years or older, total 148 cases, including 1 new hospitalization and no new deaths, total of 39 hospitalized at one time and 18 deaths. This age group represents 18.7% of the 792 total cases. 39 of the 148 cases in this age group (26.4) were hospitalized at one time, a substantially higher percentage than in the lower age groups. And… this group counts for 18 of the 23 deaths, over 78%.
CITY DATA
Vallejoadded 34 new cases today, total of 371.
Fairfield added 46 new cases today, total of 219.
Vacaville added 16 new cases today, total of 98 cases.
Suisun City added 5 new cases today, total of 51 cases.
Benicia remained at 25 cases.
Dixon added 3 new cases today, total of 17 cases.
Rio Vista and “Unincorporated” are still not assigned numerical data: today both remain at <10 (less than 10). 1 new case was evidently in this group today, unaccounted for among the other city counts. The total numbers for other cities add up to 781, leaving 11 cases somewhere among the 2 locations in this “<10” category (one more than last reported). Residents and city officials have pressured County officials for city case counts. Today’s data is welcome, but still incomplete.
TOTAL HOSPITALIZATIONS: 97 of Solano’s 792 cases resulted in hospitalizations since the outbreak started, 4 more than yesterday. Cumulative hospitalizations is a most important stat to watch. On May 1 there were 51 hospitalizations, and the daily increase was relatively steady, adding 2 or less each day. But on May 22, the County reported 4 new hospitalizations, 9 more on May 29, and 3 more on June 2. We were back to 1 or 2 a day lately or even remaining steady until today’s increase by 4. We need to keep our eyes on these numbers.
ACTIVE CASES:132 of the 792 cases are currently active, an astonishing increase of 62 more than yesterday. Again, this is a something of a mystery to me, given that the County is reporting 105 NEW cases today. 105 NEW cases but only 62 additional ACTIVE cases? I’m sure there’s an explanation, but…. Note that active cases had been trending lower until a steep increase last week. We were at 72 active cases on May 28; down to 42 on June 8, and bouncing back up to 88 on Friday June 12. And now today’s big jump to 132. Below you will see that only 10 of the active cases are currently hospitalized, which leaves 122 of these 132 active cases out in our communities somewhere, and hopefully quarantined.
HOSPITAL IMPACT: The County shows only 10 of the 97 hospitalized cases are CURRENTLY hospitalized, 4 fewer than yesterday, good news! The County’s count ofICU beds available and ventilator supply remains at “GOOD” at 31-100%. (No information is given on our supply of test kits, PPE and staff.) TESTING: The County reports that 18,362 residents have been tested as of today, an increase of 1,381 residents tested since yesterday! Testing has increased by a large degree over the last 2 weeks, and will continue to be a very important way of limiting and tracking outbreaks – please go get a test if you can! Testing sites in Vallejo and Vacaville are open to anyone – see locations below. We still have a long way to go: only 3.1% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.
Solano’s curve – sharp upturn in cumulative cases as of June 17
This chart shows the infection’s steady upward trajectory in Solano County with a sudden jump today. Our nursing homes, long-term care facilities and jails bear watching, and social distancing is still incredibly important: everyone stay home if you don’t need to go out, wear masks when you do go out (especially in enclosed spaces), wash hands, and be safe!
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