All posts by Roger Straw

Editor, owner, publisher of The Benicia Independent

Bay Area COVID-19 information source: SF Chronicle’s CORONAVIRUS TRACKER

[BenIndy Editor: The San Francisco Chronicle’s excellent Coronavirus Tracker is jam-packed with good information.  The interactive parts of the Tracker don’t work here – some of the links work, but you have to go to the Tracker to see data when you hover over various parts or otherwise interact with the page.  – R.S.]

Coronavirus Tracker

projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/
By Last updated:
The Chronicle is mapping every reported coronavirus case in the Bay Area, California and the U.S. We are tallying the number of tests performed in California and new confirmed cases and deaths reported across the state by day.
California cases are organized by reporting county. Cases are based on reports from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the California Department of Public Health and county public health departments, plus exclusive Chronicle reporting. For more information on the data, please read about our methodology.

What are the latest developments?

California Gov. Gavin Newsom said he will outline a plan on Tuesday for gradually loosening the stay-at-home orders, a plan that will use “science to guide our decision-making, not political pressure.” Newsom recently said the shutdown could last longer than the early May target that President Trump was hoping for in an effort to jumpstart the economy. Earlier Monday, Trump tweeted that the decision to reopen businesses would be his alone, but Newsom, who issued the original orders in California, clearly does not agree. In other news out of Washington, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said during a news briefing that more than 80 million Americans are expected to receive direct deposit payments by Wednesday as part of the COVID-19 relief program.

Latest headlines: Complaint filed over nursing home death; illegal nightclub used janitorial company as a front; and San Francisco program bonds young and old during shutdown

For the latest news and developments, read The Chronicle’s coronavirus live updates or sign up for our coronavirus newsletter.

Snapshot of cases in the Bay Area by county

SOURCES: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the California Department of Public Health and county public health departments, exclusive Chronicle reporting

Bay Area cases by city or region

Some Bay Area county health departments are now providing details on where people who have tested positive reside, either by region, city or jurisdiction. Use the drop down to search counties (more will be added if data becomes available).

Is shelter in place working?

There are hopeful signs. Though the case counts keep climbing, they’re not rising so fast as to suggest the regional outbreak is out of control, as it is in New York. The death toll in the Bay Area is mounting, and while that’s sobering news, it’s not increasing faster than anticipated. It’s too early to say whether the regional outbreak will mushroom into the kind of crisis striking New York. Public health authorities warn it may be many more weeks before they can say that sheltering in place saved the Bay Area and the state.

New confirmed cases in California, by day

Sources: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, California Department of Public Health and county public health departments, Chronicle reporting. Some counties do not provide daily updates which, combined with daily variances in the number of tests given, could result in randomly higher or lower counts for daily reported cases.
Sources: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, California Department of Public Health and county public health departments, Chronicle reporting. Note: A Santa Clara County death that had been reported on Feb. 29 has been moved to March 9 due to a shift in how deaths are tracked.

Do we know how many people have been hospitalized?

The most reliable marker of the outbreak is the number of people hospitalized with COVID-19, infectious disease experts say. Those numbers have been rising steadily since March 26 when the California Department of Public Health started reporting statewide counts for the number of people hospitalized and in intensive care units due to the virus. Tracking the number of patients is important because a major goal of sheltering in place is to reduce the spread of the illness and ease the burden on hospitals. Gov. Gavin Newsom has cited the rising ICU numbers as especially troubling in his daily coronavirus briefings.

What are the key data points for understanding the severity of the pandemic?

Reports of people who test positive for the coronavirus are not very reliable markers of the actual spread of disease or the severity of illness in a community because ongoing testing shortages mean most people who are infected are never tested. There are also lags in data being reported, due to long waits — sometimes up to a week — to get results from tests and the frequency with which counties report. Other important signals include the number of people hospitalized, how many people have died and how many people in the community have symptoms. More than 23,000 people have died from COVID-19 in the U.S.

Why are so few people being tested?

Testing has proved a major hurdle, with missteps at federal and state levels hampering the process along the way. California has tested far fewer people per capita than other states, including New York. As testing increases so will the case counts in the Bay Area and the rest of the state. But infectious disease experts say that even as testing becomes more widespread, the counts ultimately should be a good marker of when the outbreak is starting to slow down. Also, quicker tests will be rolled out on a limited basis in the Bay Area.

Source: The COVID Tracking Project. Tests are reported by the California Department of Health and are approximate.

How does California compare to the rest of the nation?

In the Bay Area, the pace of growth over the past month suggests that this region is doing better than other places. New cases have been roughly tripling every week for the past three weeks. In New York, the new cases have been doubling or tripling every few days.

* 152 cases without available location data not mapped. Sources: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University, U.S. Census Bureau U.S. reports of COVID-19 are tabulated by Johns Hopkins, which is tracking cases using data collected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and state and local public health departments. Numbers from Johns Hopkins for California may not match the numbers from the top map, which are being compiled by The Chronicle using county reports, county public health departments and Chronicle reporting.

HAVE MORE QUESTIONS?

We’re answering our readers’ most common questions here. Below you can find even more answers for issues specific to the Bay Area.

Railroads Resist Oil Companies’ Demands for Storage in Rail Cars Citing Safety Concerns

U.S. railroads push against oil industry demands for storage in rail cars

Reuters, by Devika Krishna Kumar, Laura Sanicola, April 9, 2020

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Railroads are clamping down on rising demand from oil companies to store crude in rail cars due to safety concerns, sources said, even as the number of places available to stockpile oil is rapidly dwindling.

FILE PHOTO: Unused oil tank cars are pictured on Western New York & Pennsylvania Railroad tracks outside Hinsdale, New York August 24, 2015. REUTERS/Lindsay DeDario

Oil demand is expected to drop by roughly 30% this month worldwide due to the worsening coronavirus pandemic, and supplies are increasing even as Saudi Arabia and Russia hammer out an agreement to cut worldwide output. Storage is filling rapidly as refiners reduce processing and U.S. exports fall.

Globally, storage space for crude could run out by mid-2020, according to IHS Markit, and most U.S. onshore storage capacity is expected to fill by May, traders and analysts said.

However, railroads including Union Pacific and BNSF, owned by billionaire Warren Buffett, are telling oil shippers that they do not want them to move loaded crude trains to private rail car storage facilities on their tracks due to safety concerns, three sources in the crude-by-rail industry said.

The railroads are telling clients that tank cars are not a prudent long-term storage mechanism for a hazardous commodity such as crude, and do not want to put a loaded crude oil unit train in a private facility and potentially create a safety hazard, they said.

Federal rules typically only allow crude in rail cars to be stored on private tracks. There is no federal data on how much oil is regularly put in rail storage, but analysts said it is very little.

“Most federal regulations require rail cars loaded with … crude oil to be moved promptly within 48 hours. Therefore, federal regulations discourage shippers and railroads from leaving crude oil in transportation for an extended time,” transportation lawyers at Clark Hill LLC wrote in an article Thursday.

BNSF did not respond to several requests for comment. Union Pacific declined to comment.

Nearly 142 million barrels of crude moved via rail in the U.S. in 2019, representing about 10% of what is transported via pipelines, according to the U.S. Energy Department. Unit trains, made up entirely of tank cars, can carry around 60,000-75,000 barrels.

Even on smaller or mid-sized railroads, known as shortlines, there may be capacity constraints or insurance coverage may not be adequate, the railroads have said, advising rail companies not to store oil.

“It is arbitrary, and is happening at a time when it (storage) is an option being heavily considered by all companies that have access to crude by rail right now,” one of the sources said.

As of September, there was enough crude storage capacity in the U.S. for about 391 million barrels of out of about 700 million working capacity, excluding the strategic reserve, according to the U.S. Energy Department. However, U.S. stocks have risen by 32.5 million barrels in just the last 4 weeks, including a 15-million-barrel gain in the latest week, the most ever.

Crude-by-rail shipments were not economic when oil prices were high but are expected to rise as prices have plunged. Loadings out of the Permian basin, the biggest in the country, slumped to about 12,500 barrels per day (bpd) in January, the lowest in at least a year, before rising to about 13,200 bpd in February, according to data from Genscape.

Demand is falling so swiftly that rail cars loaded with crude may not be accepted by the time they reach their destination three-to-five days later, leaving barrels orphaned without a storage option, one trader said.

Rates to lease rail cars have dropped sharply due to the crash in oil prices, making them more attractive for storage. Lease rates for rail cars have fallen from about $800 per month to about $500, said Ernie Barsamian, founder and CEO of The Tank Tiger, a terminal storage clearinghouse.

Reporting by Devika Krishna Kumar, Laura Sanicola and Laila Kearney in New York; Editing by Chris Reese

COVID-19 in Solano County – 14 new cases over the weekend, 1855 tested


Monday, April 13: fourteen new cases no new deaths, total now 135 cases, 2 deaths:

Solano County Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Updates and Resources.  Check out basic information in this screenshot. IMPORTANT: The County’s interactive page has more.  On the County website, you can click on “Number of cases” and then hover over the charts for detailed information.

Last report (Friday, April 10):

Summary:

Solano County reported 14 NEW POSITIVE CASES over the weekend and today – total is now 135.  No new deaths in Solano County – still stands at 2.

Over the weekend:

    • 5 new cases were reported on Saturday 4/11
    • 4 new cases were reported on Sunday 4/12
    • 5 new cases were reported today, Monday 4/13

As of today:

    • 1 additional positive case was a young person under 19 years of age, total of 2.
    • 13 additional cases were persons 19-64 years of age, total of 106 cases, 79%, of the 135 total (no new deaths, total of 1).
    • No additional cases were persons 65 or older, total of 27 cases, 20% of the 135 total (including 1 death)

ACTIVE CASES:  Only 25 of the 135 are active cases. This is 8 fewer than previously reported on Friday, 4/10. On that day, 6 fewer than the previous day were classed as active.  Taken together would seem to be a dramatic reduction.  Good news!

HOSPITALIZATIONS: 36 of the cases have resulted in hospitalizations (2 more than previously reported on 4/10).

CITY DATA: Vallejo added 6 new cases, total of 50; Fairfield added 1 case, total of 34; and Vacaville added 3 new case, total of 24.  Smaller cities are still not assigned numerical data: all show <10 (less than 10).  NOTE that the county’s 3 major cities account for only 10 of today’s 13 new cases, so 3 of today’s new cases must have come from our four smaller cities or unincorporated areasResidents and city officials have been pressuring County officials for city case counts for many weeks.  Today’s data is welcome, but incomplete.

A new NUMBER OF RESIDENTS TESTED panel was added to today’s report.  1,855 residents have been tested as of today, approximately 4 tenths of 1% of Solano County’s population of 447,643 (2019).

The blue bars in the chart, “Daily number of cases on the date that specimens were collected” shows why the County is interpreting a flattening of the curve.  Note that the daily date in that chart refers to the date a sample was drawn and so reflects the lag time in testing.

 

Solano’s upward curve in cumulative cases – as of April 13

The chart above gives a clear picture of the infection’s trajectory in Solano County.  Our COVID-19 curve continues on its uphill climb!

Everyone stay home and be safe!

Here’s what a coronavirus-like response to the climate crisis would look like

Los Angeles Times, by Sammy Roth, March 30, 2020


Both the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change are global crises with the power to derail economies and kill millions of people. Society has moved far more aggressively to address the coronavirus than it has the climate crisis. But some experts wonder if the unprecedented global mobilization to slow the pandemic might help pave the way for more dramatic climate action.

Leah Stokes, a political scientist at UC Santa Barbara, pointed out that aggressive steps to reduce planet warming emissions — such as investing in solar and wind power, switching to electric cars and requiring more efficient buildings — wouldn’t be nearly as disruptive to everyday life as the stay-at-home orders that have defined the novel coronavirus response.  [continued – view article in PDF format…]