By Roger Straw, November 14, 2020

Scott still trails by 130 votes, with only 40-140 Benicia votes yet to count – I’m calling the race: Macenski the winner

Solano County didn’t post it’s Friday Nov. 13 update until Saturday, but it’s there now, showing that more mail-in ballots and provisional ballots were processed.

The one close race in Benicia was for the second seat on Benicia’s City Council. Both Trevor Macenski and Terry Scott netted 17 more votes in the latest Solano Registrar of Voters report. So Macenski continues to lead Scott by 130 votes. And I’m calling the race.

CANDIDATE NAME	TOTAL VOTES	PERCENTAGE
	8,627	36.45%
	7,587	32.05%
	7,457	31.50%

Potential ballots remaining to be processed, as of Friday’s Solano County report, include 0-250 mail-in ballots and 500-1,500 provisional ballots. By my own calculation, Benicia might account for about 8% of those remaining ballots, or 40-140 outstanding votes.

It begins to look like a 130 vote margin is not at all likely to be overcome. So I think we can say that Trevor wins, given the odds.

The Registrar of Voters won’t offer a FINAL count for awhile. We’ll just have to wait for them to finish counting and certify the winner. But meanwhile, we can offer sad well-wishes to our candidate Terry, and congratulations to Trevor Macenski. Here’s hoping the next City Council will work together well and accomplish much!

Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Solano County confirms 880 new COVID cases in last 10 days, averaging 88 per day

November 13, 2020 Roger Straw

UPDATE: See today’s latest information

[Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard. For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE.]

Solano’s ACTIVE case count also up sharply, nearly doubling, adding 325 in last 10 days; 718 residents are currently considered active. Test positivity rate still over 10%.

Friday, November 13: 133 new cases overnight, no new deaths, no new reports of hospitalizations. Since the outbreak began: 8,729 cases, 545 hospitalized, 79 deaths.Compare previous report, Thursday, Nov. 12:Summary

Solano County reported 133 new cases overnight, following a huge weekend increase of 234, 64 more on Tuesday and 166 yesterday. Total of 8,729 cases since the outbreak started.
Deaths – no new deaths reported today, total of 79 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
Active cases – Solano reported 37 additional active cases today, total of 718. Active cases have increased by 325 since last Wednesday, Nov. 4! COMPARE: average number of Active Cases during October was 284 – now we are at 718! Note that only 40 of these 718 individuals are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined. Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons? Who knows? To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
Hospitalizations – Solano County reported the number of CURRENTLY hospitalized persons increased by 5 today, total of 40. TOTAL hospitalized since the outbreak began supposedly remained steady today, a total of 545 of all ages hospitalized since the outbreak began. CAUTION: According to a November 7 email from Dr. Bela Matyas, the County occasionally updates Age Group hospitalizations retroactively. This accounts for the sudden 106 additions on October 29, a one-day increase of 25% in total hospitalizations. Those 106 had never been recorded as CURRENTLY hospitalized. My take on this is that the County’s daily updates on hospitalizations are nearly meaningless. Nonetheless, I will continue to track both CURRENT hospitalizations and TOTAL hospitalizations since the outbreak began. For manual calculation of total, see age group stats below.
ICU Beds – The County reported a slight increase in ICU beds available today, up from 28% to 29% but remaining in the yellow danger zone. (Still no information about availability of ventilators.)

Positive Test Rate – extremely high, 10.1%

Solano County reported that our 7-day average positive test rate fell slightly today from 10.3% to 10.1%. Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus. The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate has also been on the rise lately, but remained steady today at 4.4%. (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results. However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results. The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.)

By Age Group

Youth 17 and under – 20 new cases overnight, total of 1,021 cases, representing 11.7% of the 8,729 total cases. No new hospitalizations reported today. Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group. But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30. Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low. The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 14 youth have now been hospitalized.
Persons 18-49 years of age – 83 (!) new cases overnight, total of 5,106 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents just under 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups. No new hospitalizations reported today, total of 181. No new deaths in this young group today, total of 6 deaths. Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us. I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
Persons 50-64 years of age – 24 new cases overnight, total of 1,684 cases. This age group represents over 19% of the 8,729 total cases. No new hospitalizations reported today, total of 152. No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 15 deaths.
Persons 65 years or older – 6 new cases today, total of 914, representing 10.6% of Solano’s 8,729 total cases. No new hospitalizations reported today, total of 198 since the outbreak began. No new deaths in this age group today, total of 58 of our elders who died of COVID. This group accounts for 58 of the 79 total deaths, or 73%.

City Data

Benicia added 5 new cases today, total of 229 cases since the outbreak began.
Dixon added 7 new cases today, total of 556 cases.
Fairfield added 30 new cases today, total of 2,743 cases.
Rio Vista added 5 new cases today, total of 72 cases.
Suisun City added 15 (!) new cases today, total of 619 cases.
Vacaville added 40 new cases today, total of 1,679 cases.
Vallejo added 31 new cases today, total of 2,804 cases.
Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 27 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics. This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans. Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 23% of deaths.
Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 25% of cases, 28% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 24% of cases, 25% of hospitalizations and 32% of deaths.

More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis. The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions. For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

2020 elections, Benicia City Council, Benicia elections, Solano County Registrar of Voters, Terry Scott, Tom Campbell, Trevor Macenski

Benicia City Council – super close race, Terry Scott down 3 more votes, not quite over yet

November 12, 2020 Roger Straw

By Roger Straw, November 12, 2020

Terry Scott, candidate for Benicia City Council

Scott now trails by 130 votes, with an estimated 140-240 Benicia votes yet to count

Solano County took Veterans Day off, but came back today and processed more mail-in ballots and provisional ballots.

The winner status in all races remained unchanged as of 5:15pm tonight.

The one truly close race in Benicia is for the second seat on Benicia’s City Council. Tom Campbell is assured of first place, having won 8,615 votes. The second seat is really close, with Trevor Macenski leading Terry Scott by only 130 votes.

CANDIDATE NAME	TOTAL VOTES	PERCENTAGE
	8,615	36.49%
	7,561	32.03%
	7,431	31.48%

Potential ballots remaining to be processed, as of tonight’s Solano County report, include 250-500 mail-in ballots and 1,500-2,500 provisional ballots. By my own calculation, Benicia might account for about 8% of those remaining ballots, or 140-240 outstanding votes.

If I were a pro, I might call the race now, given the odds against narrowing a 130-point margin. But I’m no pro, and Terry’s a friend, so I can’t go there. We’ll just have to wait for the Registrar of Voters to finish counting and certify a winner. ☹

Hang in there, Terry!

Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Over Veterans Day holiday in Solano County, 166 new COVID infections, 3 new hospitalizations

November 12, 2020 Roger Straw

UPDATE: See today’s latest information

[Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard. For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE.]

Thursday, November 12: 166 new cases over 2 days, no new deaths, 3 new hospitalizations. Since the outbreak began: 8,596 cases, 545 hospitalized, 79 deaths.Compare previous report, Tuesday, Nov. 10 (no report on 11/11, Veterans Day)…Summary

Solano County reported 166 new cases over 2 days, including Veterans Day, following a huge weekend increase of 234 and 64 on Tuesday. Total of 8,596 cases since the outbreak started.
Deaths – no new deaths reported today, total of 79 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
Active cases – Solano reported 101 (!) additional active cases today, total of 681. The County has added 288 active cases since last Wednesday! Note that only 35 of these 681 individuals are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined. Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons? Who knows? To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
Hospitalizations – Solano County reported the number of CURRENTLY hospitalized persons increased by 4 today, total of 35. TOTAL hospitalized since the outbreak began increased by 3 today, two individuals 18-49 years of age and one person 50-64 years of age, a total of 545 of all ages hospitalized since the outbreak began. According to a November 7 email from Dr. Bela Matyas, the County occasionally updates Age Group hospitalizations retroactively. This accounts for the sudden 106 additions on October 29, a one-day increase of 25% in total hospitalizations. Those 106 had never been recorded as CURRENTLY hospitalized. My take on this is that the County’s daily updates on hospitalizations are nearly meaningless. Nonetheless, I will continue to track both CURRENT hospitalizations and TOTAL hospitalizations since the outbreak began. For manual calculation of total, see age group stats below.
ICU Beds – The County reported fewer ICU beds available today, down from 35% to 28% entering today into the yellow danger zone. (Still no information about availability of ventilators.)

Positive Test Rate – extremely high, 10.3%

Solano County reported that our 7-day average positive test rate rose today from 11.1% to 10.3%. Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus. The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate has also been on the rise lately, increasing today from 4.2% to 4.4%. (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results. However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results. The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.)