First, the chilling illustration on New York Times’ front page from yesterday, where each dot represents a death, starting at the top with a single death on February 29, 2020 (Click on the image to enlarge.) …and be sure to also see the Washington Post story, below.
The Washington Post Graphics Department posted 3 ways of imagining 500,000 of us – a caravan of 9,804 buses full of people, 50 on each bus; names listed on a memorial wall like that of Vietnam War dead, only 87 feet tall; and a filled-to-capacity new cemetery the size of Arlington Cemetery. (This story cannot be shared visually on the BenIndy, but you can view it free at the WaPo. Click here or on the image below.) Thanks to Washington Post graphics staffers Artur Galocha and Bonnie Berkowitz.
500,000 dead, a number almost too large to grasp
Here are three ways to visualize the monstrous death toll of the coronavirus in this country
COVID is still spreading and dangerous in Solano County – stay safe!
Friday, February 19: 76 new Solano cases overnight, 5 new deaths. Since February 2020: 29,766 cases, over 875 hospitalized, 161 deaths.Compare previous report, Thursday, February 18Summary
CASES – Solano County reported 76 new cases overnight, a total of 29,766 cases since the outbreak started. In January, Solano added 8,495 new cases, for an average of 274 new cases per day. February 1 to 19, the County reported 1,575 new cases, an average of 83 per day.
DEATHS – the County reported yet another 5 new deaths today, one person 50-64 years of age, and four of our elders 65+. A total of 161 Solano residents have died with COVID since the pandemic began. 39 COVID deaths were reported here in Solano County just since February 1. COMPARE: In the month of January, Solano recorded a total of 24 coronavirus deaths. Combining the two months to date, a total of 63 deaths, or 39% of Solano’s 161 COVID deaths occurred just since January 1! While many other COVID stats are improving, the recent surge in deaths is no doubt the final sad result of our holiday surge. And we may see another surge in cases and deaths following the Super Bowl.
ACTIVE cases – Solano reported 63 fewer active cases overnight, a total of 471 active cases. Compare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases during October was 284, average in November was 650, in December 1,658, in January 2,185 – and TODAY we are at 471. Much better, but still, is the County equipped to contact trace all these infected persons? My guess is we just sit back and wait for a voluntary 10 day quarantine to expire. Who knows? To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
HOSPITALIZATIONS –(See expanding ICU capacity and ventilator availability below.) Today, Solano reported 1 fewer currently hospitalized case, total of 68. However, the County also reported 1 new hospitalization among the 50-64 age group and 1 more among the 65+ age group, a total of 877 hospitalized in all age groups since the pandemic began. Accuracy of the County’s hospitalization numbers cannot be certain. [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below. For COVID19-CA.GOV numbers, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.]
ICU BEDS – In late January, Solano hospitals expanded their ICU capacity [see BenIndy, Jan. 25] Even with the expanded ICU capacity, Solano County fell back into the YELLOW DANGER ZONE again today, reporting 21% available today, down significantly from yesterday’s 40%. The State’s COVID19-CA.GOV reports that Solano County had only 14 AVAILABLE ICU BEDS as of yesterday, February 18. (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
VENTILATORS available – Today Solano hospitals have 53% of ventilators available, down from yesterday’s 60%, and down substantially from last summer’s reports of 82-94% available.
Positive Test Rate: 12.4% – VIRUS STILL SPREADING, STAY SAFE!
Solano County reported our 7-day average positive test at 12.4%, same as yesterday and well over the State’s purple/red tier threshold of 8%. DON’T EXPECT A QUICK MOVE DOWN TO THE RED TIER: the State requires a county to meet criteria for the next less restrictive tier (in test rate measures AND case rate measures) for the prior two consecutive weeks in order to progress to the next tier. Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus. COMPARE: The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was 3.1% today, down slightly from yesterday’s 3.2%. (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results. However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results. The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.)
By Age Group
Youth 17 and under – 15 new cases overnight, total of 3,482 cases, representing 11.7% of the 29,766 total cases. No new hospitalizations were reported today among this age group, total of 18 since the outbreak began. Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group. But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained at over 11% since September 30. Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low. The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 18 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
Persons 18-49 years of age – 36 new cases overnight, total of 16,421 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 55.2% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups. The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today. A total of 245 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began. Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 10 deaths. Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders. I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
Persons 50-64 years of age – 12 new cases overnight, total of 6,213 cases. This age group represents 20.9% of the 29,766 total cases. The County reported 1 new hospitalization among persons in this age group today, a total of 234 reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began. 1 new death was reported in this age group today, a total of 26 deaths.
Persons 65 years or older – 13 new cases overnight, total of 3,639, representing 12.2% of Solano’s 29,766 total cases. The County reported 1 new hospitalization among persons in this age group today, a total of 380 hospitalized since the outbreak began. 4 new deaths were reported in this age group today. A total of 125 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 78%of Solano’s 161 total deaths.
City Data
Benicia added 1 new case overnight, total of 843 cases since the outbreak began.
Dixon added 4 new cases overnight, total of 1,744 cases.
Fairfield added 17 new cases overnight, total of 8,092 cases.
Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 316 cases.
Suisun City added 2 new case overnight, total of 2,005 cases.
Vacaville added 19 new cases overnight, total of 7,846 cases.
Vallejoadded 33 new cases overnight, total of 8,833 cases.
Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 87 cases.
Race / Ethnicity
The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics. This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans. Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.
Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 17% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 14% of cases, 21% of hospitalizations, and 12% of deaths.
Multi-race / Others are 7% of Solano’s population, but account for 34% of cases, 19% of hospitalizations, and 15% of deaths.
White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 29% of cases, 31% of hospitalizations and 35% of deaths.
It’s been almost a month since Twitterless Donald Trump flounced down to Florida. Some hoped that, having lost his presidential and social media platforms, his Big Lie about the 2020 election being stolen would flame out.
No such luck. In voting to acquit him at his impeachment trial, 43 out of 50 Republican senators yet again caved to his control. In the House, Arizona, Texas and Michigan, his loyalists keep pushing his party line or pushing out figures who don’t fall in line.
Left unchecked, democracy-destroying lies don’t die. Hitler exploited a Big Lie, which blamed Germany’s World War I defeat on a “stab in the back” by Jews and leftists, to spur the Nazis’ rise to power. Today’s authoritarians in Hungary, Turkey, Russia and Poland similarly twist history to seek to cement their rule. The Lost Cause myth, which cast the Confederacy as a noble endeavor, and which survives and even thrives in some states today, buttressed over a century of racist repression of Southern Blacks.
Such havoc can happen here. In fact, it’s already started. The impeachment managers’ presentations documented how the Big Lie has already fomented vitriol and violence, above and beyond the January 6 fatalities and injuries. The rot includes the Capitol rioters’ death threats against Mike Pence and Nancy Pelosi, an attempt in Texas to run Biden backers’ bus off the road and the militant Proud Boys’ pride in Trump’s support.
Even if his sway fades, likely 2024 candidates like Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz could keep pressing the point to fuel further division and even violence. In historian Timothy Snyder words, “The lie outlasts the liar.”
Tell the Truth
What to do in the face of all this? As Mitt Romney memorably put it on January 6, “The best way we could show respect for the voters who were upset is by telling them the truth.”
That’s why we need persistent, multipronged efforts to promote the Big Truth: Joe Biden won a free and fair election.
Here are some ideas about what those efforts could feature:
A Truth Commission. South Africa and many other nations have assembled such panels to document and address their respective histories of war, repression or human rights abuses. Unlike these deep dives, the American version could quickly pull together and propagate the overwhelming evidence of the Big Truth.
This work could be one aspect of the “9/11-type commission” proposed by Pelosi. Or it might best be unofficial in nature, since a government-appointed body could feed conspiracist fantasies and prove otherwise problematic. Who organizes the panel is less important than the bipartisan, respected figures who constitute it.
The Messenger is the Message. The power of Arnold Schwarzenneger’s recent, intensely personal video on the “lies, and lies, and lies” behind the Nazis’ Kristallnacht in his native Austria flows not just from the history he recites but from the famous macho man reciting it. In their song “Undivided,” country music stars Tyler Hubbard and Tim McGraw frame faith, patriotism, tolerance and unity in terms appealing to their fans.
Given their activist orientations and broad appeals, celebrities like Bruce Springsteen and Taylor Swift could play similar roles. But tweets, PSAs and outreach by previously unengaged movie, military, athletic and other heroes might also help bring the truth to light.
Democracy Won. Though the obvious upshot of all this is that Joe Biden is our legitimate president, the core message is not about Democrats or Republicans. Democracy won on November 3, in that our democratic practices and principles prevailed.
Go Legitimately Low. Michelle Obama’s laudable 2016 declaration, “When they go low, we go high,” only goes so far in effectively countering the Big Lie. There’s nothing wrong with shining a harsh but accurate light on the price we pay for denying the truth. The Lincoln Project has made an artform of such ads. Circulating powerful videos, like the horrid January 6 clip of a police officer beaten with a pole bearing the American flag on the Capitol steps, can also dramatize the un-American danger the Big Lie brings.
Call Out the Big Liars. Turn the tables on the many Republican officials who are trying to turn the GOP into the Trump Party. Through speeches, social media, ads and other advocacy, call it by that name in order to exploit how unpopular he is with the majority of Americans. Or call it the Big Lie Party, or the Anti-democracy Party.
Call Out the Elusive Liars. In a related vein, Jonathan Last of The Bulwark, the conservative anti-Trump site, offers this suggestion for putting anti-democracy Republicans on the spot if they try to side-step the issue:
A proposal for reporters covering Republican candidates and officeholders over the next four years:
Every interview should begin with two questions.
Sir/Ma’am, I need one-word answers from you:
1. Who won the 2020 U.S. presidential election?
2. Was this the legitimate result of a free and fair election?
This shouldn’t take long. The questions can be asked in less than 5 seconds. The answers are one word each: “Biden” and “yes.”
Any Republican candidate or officeholder who refuses to answer, or who tries to elide the question by saying something like, “Joe Biden is the president,” should be asked again. And again. And again.
Keep Beating the Drum. The Big Lie won’t rest. The Big Truth can’t either. Messages must be repeated many times over time in order to sink in. Creative ways can be found to hammer home the truth without being boring.
Look Toward the Future. The Big Truth is about more than setting straight the recent past. It’s also about the future. Fueled by the Big Lie, over 100 voter suppression bills have already been filed in 28 states in 2021. Persuading people that the 2020 election was free and fair could positively impact the voter protection battles that will roil 2022 and 2024.
Other truth-promoting efforts could include financial pressure on corporations to keep withholding funds from Big Lie-propagating political action committees; keeping the lid on Trump’s fabrication-fostering and violence-inducing social media access, particularly since online misinformation about election fraud dropped dramatically after Twitter dumped Trump; and journalists adopting Washington Post media columnist Margaret Sullivan’s excellent ideas on vanquishing the Big Lie.
Even Modest Persuasion Could Prove Pivotal
Having said all this, this is not to say that most Big Lie devotees will reverse course if shown the facts. Too many are too resistant. But some absolutist truth deniers may become only doubters. Some doubters may become persuaded.
Even a modest amount of persuasion could make the difference between whether our democracy lives or dies in the years ahead. This is especially crucial in view of how closely divided our representative institutions are today, between democrats and anti-democrats. Convincing relatively few folks of the truth could prove decisive.
America dodged a bullet on November 3. If fewer than 22,000 votes had switched from Biden to Trump in three states, or if Trump had been just a bit more strategic rather than self-defeating during the campaign – something a would-be autocratic candidate could well be in 2024 – the world would be a much darker place today.
The battle for our democracy began rather than ended with Trump’s defeat. Simply fretting over the Big Lie won’t cut it. Nor will wanting to wish it away or pretending we can ignore it.
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