Solano County COVID cases now over 4,000 with 40 deaths


[Note that Solano County publishes a DAILY update, and displays past weeks and months in epidemic curve charts.  However, the curve charts do not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  This methodology is accurate in a way, but it misleads the public by consistently displaying a recent downward curve which is often corrected upward on a later date. For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Friday, August 7: 70 new cases in 1 day,
1 new death. 
Since the outbreak started: 4,029 cases, 40 deaths.

Compare previous report, Thursday August 6:Summary

  • Solano County reported 70 new cases overnight, total of 4,029 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 2 weeks, Solano reported 900 new cases, an average of 64 per day.
  • Deaths – 1 new death today, another of our elders, total of 40 deaths.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 6 more ACTIVE cases today, total of 198.  Note that only 37 of these 198 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  One wonders… is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  (See SF Chronicle report on contact tracing in Bay Area – “Solano County did not respond”.)
  • Hospitalizations2 fewer currently hospitalized persons today, total of 37.  However, the total number hospitalized since the outbreak started increased by 3, totaling 174.  Evidently more folks were discharged than the number of new admissions.  (The County no longer reports Total Hospitalized, but I can add the new hospitalization numbers in the Age Group report – see below.)  Again now for two straight weeks, the County offers no information about availability of ICU beds and ventilators.
  • Testing 433 residents were tested  today, total of 54,843.  We still have a long way to go: only 12.2% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Percent Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today’s 7-day percent positive test rate increased each day this week, from 5.3% on Monday to 6.5% today.  (The chart may be misleading – see NOTE at top of this page.)  The County posted a high of 9.3% two weeks ago on July 22.  CONTEXT: California’s 7-day positivity rate has been falling, and is reported at 5.7% today, significantly lower than Solano County’s 6.6% Health officials and news reports focus on percent positive test rates as one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 7 new cases again today, total of 399 cases. No new hospitalizations, only 2 hospitalizations since the outbreak began, and no deathsI continue to raise an alarm for Solano’s youth.  It is clear that youth are catching the disease, and it seems too many youth are ignoring social distancing orders!  Cases among Solano youth have increased to 10% of the 4,029 total confirmed cases.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 42 new cases today, total of 2,470 cases.  This age group is 41% of the County population, but represents over 61% of the 4,029 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 48 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths among this age group, total of 3 deaths.  This young to middle age group is very active, many provide essential services among us, and are likely spreading the virus!
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 13 new cases today, total of 763 cases.  This age group represents just under 19% of the 4,029 total cases.  The County reported 1 new hospitalization in this age group today, total of 55 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths among this age group, total of 4 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 8 new cases today, total of 396 cases.  This age group represents nearly 10% of the 4,029 total cases2 new hospitalizations today, total of 69 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  1 new death in this age group today, total of 33.  In this older age group, over 17% of cases required hospitalization at one time, a substantially higher percentage than in the lower age groups.  This group accounts for 33 of the 40 deaths, or 82.5%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 1 new case today, total of 93 cases.
  • Dixon added 9 new cases today, total of 220 cases.
  • Fairfield added 23 new cases today, total of 1,306.
  • Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 29 cases.
  • Suisun City added 7 new cases today, total of 310 cases.
  • Vacaville added 15 new cases today, total of 690 cases.
  • Vallejo added 15 new cases today, total of 1,369 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas – Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 12 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  There are also tabs showing a calculated rate per 100,000 by race/ethnicity for each of these boxes.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  As of today:

  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 22% of cases, 23% of hospitalizations and 25% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 13% of cases, but 22% of hospitalizations, and 28% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 27% of cases, 31% of hospitalizations, and 22% of deaths.
  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases and 13% of hospitalizations, but 17% of deaths.

Much more…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Solano and other Bay Area Counties – detailed tracking of status on State COVID watchlist

[NOTE: Details on Solano County below.]

Coronavirus:  How close are Bay Area counties to coming off state monitoring list?

Santa Clara and San Mateo are nearing the threshold

Vallejo Times-Herald, by Evan Webeck and Harriet Rowan, 8/6/20

It’s been close to a month since Gov. Gavin Newsom announced additional restrictions for counties on the state’s COVID-19 monitoring list. In that time, the list has grown to encompass every county in the Bay Area and over 90% of the state’s population.

Is there anywhere in the Bay Area close to escaping the list? We’re tracking the metrics county-by-county below, using data compiled by this news organization. Currently, hospitalizations are trending in the right direction in most of the region, but there isn’t one county that meets the per-capita case threshold necessary to come off the list, according to our calculations.

San Mateo County, with a rate of 12.5 cases per 10,000 residents over the past two weeks, is closest to falling below the state threshold of 10, followed by Santa Clara County, with a per-capita rate of 13.9 per 10,000.

The California Department of Public Health uses six criterion to determine if there is elevated disease transmission, increasing hospitalizations or limited hospital capacity in a county.

  1. Testing rate: Below 1.5 per 1,000 population per day over past 7 days
  2. Case rate: Above 10 per 10,000 population over the past 14 days
  3. Positivity rate: 8% or higher over past 7 days if 14-day case rate is less than 10 but higher than 2.5 per 10,000
  4. Hospitalizations: Increase of 10% or more in 3-day average vs. previous 3 days
  5. ICU capacity: 20% or less beds available
  6. Ventilator capacity: 25% or less ventilators available

Falling out of line with any one of the six metrics for three days lands a county on the list. To come off, a county has to meet all six markers for three straight days.

Under the most recent health order, counties on the monitoring list for three days are also forced to close gyms, personal-care services, nonessential offices, places of worship and malls in addition to the statewide closures of bars, indoor dining and other indoor entertainment. To be eligible to open schools for in-person learning, a county must be off the list for 14 days.

Note: CDPH uses a 7-day lag when tracking its data, while this news organization compiles the most up-to-date data from county health departments. Recently discovered underreporting of tests and cases could skew the data. Because of the faulty data, CDPH has temporarily paused adding or subtracting counties from the monitoring list. There is no standardized number of ICUs and ventilators per county publicly available, so that data is not included below.

Alameda

population: 1.67 million

Cases per 10,000 (past 14 days): 15.7 (+6.6% since previous 14-day period)

Positivity rate (past 7 days): 3.7%

Hospitalizations (past 3 days, average): 194.3 (-2.5% since previous 3-day period)

Contra Costa

population: 1.15 million

Cases per 10,000 (past 14 days): 15.3 (-14.5% since previous 14-day period)

Positivity rate (past 7 days): 12.32%

Hospitalizations (past 3 days, average): 98.3 (-5.7% since previous 3-day period)

Marin

population: 263,000

Cases per 10,000 (past 14 days): 31.0 (-43.7% since previous 14-day period)

Positivity rate (past 7 days): 15.86%

Hospitalizations (past 3 days, average): 23.3 (-10.4% since previous 3-day period)

Napa

population: 140,000

Cases per 10,000 (past 14 days): 21.5 (+22.9% since previous 14-day period)

Positivity rate (past 7 days): 11.24%

Hospitalizations (past 3 days, average): 8.3 (-28.8% since previous 3-day period)

San Francisco

population: 884,000

Cases per 10,000 (past 14 days): 19.7 (+22.9% since previous 14-day period)

Positivity rate (past 7 days): 2.96%

Hospitalizations (past 3 days, average): 93 (-9.4% since previous 3-day period)

San Mateo

population: 775,000

Cases per 10,000 (past 14 days): 12.5 (-11% since previous 14-day period)

Positivity rate (past 7 days): 7.16%

Hospitalizations (past 3 days, average): 55.7 (-0.1% since previous 3-day period)

Santa Clara

population: 1.95 million

Cases per 10,000 (past 14 days): 13.9 (-4.9% since previous 14-day period)

Positivity rate (past 7 days): 7.48%

Hospitalizations (past 3 days, average): 175.7 (-5.7% since previous 3-day period)

Solano

population: 441,000

Cases per 10,000 (past 14 days): 19.3 (-21.5% since previous 14-day period)

Positivity rate (past 7 days): 15.33%

Hospitalizations (past 3 days, average): 45.3 (+7.1% since previous 3-day period)

Sonoma

population: 501,000

Cases per 10,000 (past 14 days): 19.8 (+27.3 since previous 14-day period)

Positivity rate (past 7 days): 12.42%

Hospitalizations (past 3 days, average): 41.7 (-5.2% since previous 3-day period)

COVID-19 in Solano County – another death, 75 new cases, positive test rate remains higher than State


[Note that Solano County publishes a DAILY update, and displays past weeks and months in epidemic curve charts.  However, the curve charts do not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  This methodology is accurate in a way, but it misleads the public by consistently displaying a recent downward curve which is often corrected upward on a later date. For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Thursday, August 6: 75 new cases in 1 day,
1 new death. 
Since the outbreak started: 3,959 cases, 39 deaths.

Compare previous report, Wednesday August 5:Summary

  • Solano County reported 75 new cases overnight, total of 3,959 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 2 weeks, Solano reported 889 new cases, an average of 64 per day.
  • Deaths – 1 new death today, another of our elders, total of 39 deaths.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 21 more ACTIVE cases today, total of 192.  Note that only 39 of these 192 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  One wonders… is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  (See SF Chronicle report on contact tracing in Bay Area – “Solano County did not respond”.)
  • Hospitalizations3 fewer currently hospitalized persons today, total of 39.  However, the total number hospitalized since the outbreak started increased by 7, totaling 171.  Evidently more were discharged than the number of new admissions.  (The County no longer reports Total Hospitalized, but I have added the new hospitalization numbers in the Age Group report – see below.)  Again this week, the County offers no information about availability of ICU beds and ventilators.
  • Testing 595 residents were tested  today, total of 54,410.  We still have a long way to go: only 12% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Percent Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today’s 7-day percent positive test rate is up from 5.3% on Monday to 6.2% yesterday and today.  (The chart may be misleading – see NOTE at top of this page.)  The County posted a high of 9.3% two weeks ago on July 22.  CONTEXT: California’s 7-day positivity rate has been falling, and is reported at 5.1% today, significantly lower than Solano County’s 6.2% Health officials and news reports are focusing on percent positive test rates.  Test positivity is one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 7 new cases again today, total of 392 cases. No new hospitalizations, only 2 hospitalizations since the outbreak beganI continue to raise an alarm for Solano’s youth.  It is clear that youth can catch the disease, and it seems too many youth are ignoring social distancing orders!  Cases among Solano youth have increased to 10% of the 3,959 total confirmed cases.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 45 new cases today, total of 2,428 cases.  This age group is 41% of the County population, but represents over 61% of the 3,959 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported 3 new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 48 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Good news, no new deaths among this age group, total of 3 deaths.  This young to middle age group is no doubt active, many are providing essential services among us, and potentially spreading the virus!
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 14 new cases today, total of 750 cases.  This age group represents just under 19% of the 3,959 total cases.  The County reported 3 new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 54 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths among this age group, total of 4 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 9 new cases today, total of 388 cases.  This age group represents nearly 10% of the 3,959 total cases1 new hospitalization today, total of 67 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  1 new death in this age group today, total of 32.  In this older age group, over 17% of cases required hospitalization at one time, a substantially higher percentage than in the lower age groups.  This group accounts for 32 of the 39 deaths, or 82%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 2 new cases today, total of 92 cases.
  • Dixon added 6 new cases today, total of 211 cases.
  • Fairfield added 17 new cases today, total of 1,283.
  • Rio Vista added 1 new case today, total of 29 cases.
  • Suisun City added 6 new cases today, total of 303 cases.
  • Vacaville added 14 new cases today, total of 675 cases.
  • Vallejo added 29 new cases today, total of 1,354 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas – Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 12 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  There are also tabs showing a calculated rate per 100,000 by race/ethnicity for each of these boxes.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  As of today:

  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 22% of cases, 23% of hospitalizations and 26% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 13% of cases, but 22% of hospitalizations, and 29% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 27% of cases, 32% of hospitalizations, and 23% of deaths.
  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases and 12% of hospitalizations, but 14% of deaths.

Much more…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Benicia Superintendent Charles Young on school classes to start August 17

Vallejo, Benicia school districts getting ready for start of fall classes

Solano County on watch list

Vallejo Times Herald, by Thomas Gase, August 5, 2020
Dr. Charles Young is Benicia Unified School District’s superintendent. (Chris Riley – Times-Herald file)

Zoom accounts. Masks. Decent WiFi. It’s not the typical back-to-school shopping list, but then again 2020 has been anything but normal due to COVID-19.

With the start of the school year right around the corner (Aug. 17 in Solano County) teachers, administrators and school board members are currently working quicker than The Flash to make things run smoothly when students return back to class.

When the students do return it won’t be on campuses as the Solano County Office of Education announced three weeks ago that local schools will start the new school year with distance learning. This is because Gov. Gavin Newsom announced in July that that schools in counties on the state’s coronavirus watch list begin the school year via distance learning. Solano County is on that list.

“It’s definitely different preparing for the start of the school year in the digital age,” Vallejo High principal Jarrod Bordi said. “We’ve been doing a lot of brainstorming this week and we’ve had a lot of professional development this week. We will have three more days next week with our staff. We want to make sure that our teachers have all the right tools they need.”

Kids and parents walk on to the Widenmann/Solano campus on the first day of school in 2019. (Chris Riley–Times-Herald)

Newsom has said that once these “watched” locales meet requirements (including being off the list for 14 consecutive days) campuses may reopen, but as of now, Dr. Charles Young, Superintendent of Schools for Benicia Unified School District agrees with Newsom’s plan.

“We have a phase-in model approach,” Young told the Times-Herald. “We would like to be able to do in-person teaching when it is safe for students and staff as outlined by the Governor’s Directive. … Everyone is doing their very best getting ready for the year. BUSD is very fortunate to have amazingly talented employees in all parts of our system who work together in ways that are supportive and student-centered.”

Solano County Superintendent of Schools Lisette Estrella-Henderson said in July that educators “are working tirelessly to design and implement solutions to meet a broad range of unique needs for thousands of students.

“Bottom line is equity for every student is critical,” Estrella-Henderson said. “Our districts and charters schools will continue to be flexible, resourceful, and innovative no matter where instruction occurs on the first day of school.”

Young said that one of the most important issues was to make sure every student is prepared.

“Students will be provided with Chromebook for home learning,” Young said. “Some specialty classes at the secondary level will also have supply kits for students.”

Young as well as Bordi said that Benicia and Vallejo will keep a regular grading policy for the fall and not turn to a pass, fail system.

The Benicia superintendent said that there will be challenges to the new school year but that his staff and himself learned a lot during the spring semester when distance learning was first put into effect.

“Challenges include not being in the same space with our students;” Young said. “Keeping students engaged; how it’s difficult to do small group work and collaborative/hands-on work; and creating and keeping culture, community and connection, these are all challenges.

“That being said, I’ve been impressed with our teachers commitment to students,” Young continued. “I’m impressed with their ability to adjust and learn and create new “system” within 48 hours; our teachers partnership, positivity and collaboration to do what needs to be done to support students. We learned a lot in the spring such as teaching online in smaller groups works better for some students; creating a set schedule and being as consistent as possible; finding additional support curriculum that works well online; creating connection is key and that learning and teaching takes longer online.”

Bordi also said that Vallejo High will switch some things up in the fall due to what the school learned from distance schooling in the spring.

“I think this time around it’s going to be a little more robust and more direct with how we communicate with the students,” Bordi said. “For some this will be easier, while for some this may not be easier. But we want to provide a more rigorous, robust semester for kids this year.”

Bordi said one of the biggest challenges is “meeting the needs of everyone” involved. As Vallejo High moves forward he said it will take a “team effort.”

Young said that BUSD is always listening to community feedback on what they can improve on and what they should continue to do.

Some parents expressed their hopes and concerns about the school year to the Times-Herald online on Wednesday.

Iona Morgan has a student who will be a senior at Benicia High as well as an eighth-grader at Benicia Middle School.

“My biggest concern is the greater uncertainty around the college application process,” Morgan said. “Biggest hope is finding a way to protect students’ mental health. Challenges are having kids miss their friends and teachers. But I did enjoy the flexibility that distance learning provided.”

Parent Debbie Lamb said her biggest concern was funding.

“AB77 and AB98 base this year’s funding for schools in California on last year’s numbers,” she said. “But for charter schools with a growth plan, this means new students won’t be funded and the schools aren’t allowed to disenroll students either.”

Robert Alexander also weighed in on the issue on Twitter.

“Biggest hope: Pandemic=road to school vouchers. I want VJO families at @VCUSD to have choice-ability-resources to get their kids into best learning environment for their kids (SPSV-Justin-DLS-etc). If they like @VCUSD, they can give their vouchers back and stay in Vallejo public school”

Bordi said that high school is important and stressed that giving incoming freshmen the great experience of finally getting to high school is on the minds of staff.

“One thing we’ve been talking about is orientation,” Bordi said. “We want to give incoming students that great welcoming experience. It won’t be physical where a teacher shows you around the school personally like in the past, but we still want to provide a welcoming experience.”

Incoming freshmen at Vallejo High will be picking up textbooks and other materials on campus on Thursday, Aug. 13. The distribution will be spaced out and done alphabetically while staff shows up to make sure social distancing is being followed.

Newsom said the pace at which counties on and off the monitoring list resume in-person classes this fall is incumbent upon people following state health mandates and guidelines like wearing masks and face coverings, practicing physical distancing, hand washing and minimizing contact with people outside one’s household.

“The more we do … and we do it at scale, the quicker all those counties are going to come off that monitoring list, we’re going to mitigate the spread of this virus and those kids are back in school,” Newsom said in July.

Newsom also outlined the state’s requirements for distance learning. Schools must ensure that all students have access to the requisite technology and internet service for at-home classes and that students and teachers interact with each other daily. Schools must also lay out plans to modify their lessons for English language learners and special education students.

“Safety is foundational and safety will ultimately make the determination of how we go about educating our kids as we move into this fall and we work our way through this pandemic,” Newsom said.


Mitchell Romao, Vallejo Unified School District interim superintendent, as well as VCUSD President John Fox, did not return phone calls to the Times-Herald for this story.

For safe and healthy communities…