Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Solano County averaging 94 new COVID cases per day over the last 2 weeks

[Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard.  For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE.]

Wednesday, November 18: 73 new cases overnight, no new deaths.  4 new reported hospitalizations. Since the outbreak began: 9,161 cases, 549 hospitalized, 80 deaths.Compare previous report, Tuesday, Nov. 17:Summary

  • Solano County reported 73 new cases overnight, continuing the spike since last week’s huge increase of over 700 cases.  Solano has seen an average of 94 new cases per day over the last 14 days!  Total of 9,161 cases since the outbreak started.
  • Deaths – no new deaths reported today, a total of 80 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 34 additional active cases today, total of 687 (eclipsed only by our 718 cases last Friday).  Active cases have increased alarmingly lately – COMPARE: average number of Active Cases during October was 284 – now we are at 687!  Note that only 55 of these 687 individuals are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – CAUTION: According to a November 7 email from Solano Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas, the County occasionally updates Age Group hospitalizations retroactively.  This accounts for the sudden 106 additions on October 29, a one-day increase of 25% in total hospitalizations.  Those 106 had never been recorded as CURRENTLY hospitalized.  My take on this is that the County’s daily updates on hospitalizations are nearly meaningless. Solano County reported the number of CURRENTLY hospitalized persons reportedly increased by 8 today, total of 55.  TOTAL hospitalized since the outbreak began supposedly increased by 4 today, a total of 549 of all ages hospitalized since the outbreak began.    The County will likely change these figures at a later date.  [For manual calculation of total, see age group stats below.]
  • ICU Beds – The County reported an increase in ICU beds available today, rising from 21% to 29%, still in the yellow danger zone.  (No information about availability of ventilators.)

Positive Test Rate – extremely high, 10.0%

Solano County reported that our 7-day average positive test rate fell slightly today from 10.5% to 10.0%, still well over the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate has also been on the rise lately, but rose today from 5.2% to 5.3%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 4 new cases overnight, total of 1,070 cases, representing 11.7% of the 9,161 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 14 youth have now been hospitalized.50
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 43 new cases overnight, total of 5,354 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents just under 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups. No new hospitalizations reported today, total of 181.  No new deaths in this young group today, total of 6 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 17 new cases overnight, total of 1,773 cases.  This age group represents over 19% of the 9,161 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today, total of 152.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 15 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 9 new cases today, total of 959, representing 10.6% of Solano’s 9,161 total cases.  4 new hospitalizations reported today, total of 202 since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, total of 59 of our elders who died of COVID.  This group accounts for 59 of the 80 total deaths, or 74%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 2 new cases overnight, total of 243 cases since the outbreak began.  (Valued reader Mike Guerin alerted me to a method of calculating ACTIVE CASES by City, never before reported by Solano County.  Assuming a 14-day quarantine period, just add new cases over the last 14 days… which gives Benicia a total of 40 Active Cases today.) 
  • Dixon added 7 new cases overnight, total of 589 cases.
  • Fairfield added 20 new cases overnight, total of 2,862 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 1 new case overnight, total of 75 cases.
  • Suisun City remained steady today, total of 633 cases.
  • Vacaville added 18 new cases overnight, total of 1,798 cases.
  • Vallejo added 25 new cases overnight, total of 2,930 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 31 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 10% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, but 17% of hospitalizations, and 23% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 25% of cases, 28% of hospitalizations, and 16% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 24% of cases, 26% of hospitalizations and 33% of deaths.

More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.