Solano COVID numbers all rise: 10 more in hospitals, spike in elderly cases and deaths, possible start of a Labor Day surge?

[For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Monday, September 14: 117 new cases over the weekend, 2 new deaths.  Since the outbreak started: 5,937 cases, 50 deaths.Compare previous report, Friday, Sept 11:Summary

  • Solano County reported 117 new cases over the weekend, total of 5,937 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 2 weeks, Solano reported 425 new cases, an average of 30 per day.
  • Deaths – 2 new deaths today, total of 50 Solano deaths.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 13 more ACTIVE cases today, total of 208.  Note that only 33 of these 208 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has no reporting on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons included 10 more individuals today, total of 33.  The total number hospitalized since the outbreak started increased by 4 today, total of 294.
  • ICU BedsThe County reported 56% of ICU beds available, up from 43% available Friday.  (After 7 weeks, still no information about availability of ventilators.)
  • Testing – The County reports today that 1,276 more residents were tested over the weekend, new total of 81,359.  Solano has a long way to go: only 18.2% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate – BACK UP … AGAIN

Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate rose over the weekend to 4.9% after hovering under 3% for 2 days on Thursday and Friday.  I was skeptical about the remarkably low rate last week: our supposedly smooth 7-day moving average has been jumping all over the place lately (see note about delayed adjustments below).  For the record, two weeks ago we saw Solano rates above 7% for the first time since we peaked at 9.3% on July 22.  Health officials and news reports focus on percent positive test rates as one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The California 7-day test rate fell slightly today from 3.7% to 3.5%(Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity curve chart which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 12 new case today, total of 651 cases, representing 11% of the 5,937 total cases.  No new hospitalizations among this age group, a total of 5 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deathsIn recent weeks it seems too many youth are ignoring public health orders.  Cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% since last week.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is: 1) that youth numbers have increased steadily and at a faster rate than the other age groups, and 2) that youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 5 youth have been hospitalized.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 47 new cases today, total of 3,569 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 60% of the 5,937 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 94 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths among this age group today, total of 4 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect his group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 25 new cases today, total of 1,134 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 5,937 total cases.
    1 new hospitalization today, total of 79 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths  in this age group today, a total of 7 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – ALARMING!… 33 new cases today, total of 581 cases.  This is the LARGEST SINGLE WEEKEND INCREASE since I began keeping records on April 20.  The closest to this record number was during the outbreak at the Windsor Vallejo Nursing Home, on Monday, May 4, when Solano reported 31 new cases.  Do we have another outbreak somewhere, or perhaps the beginning of the anticipated Labor Day surge?  This age group represents 9.8% of the 5,937 total cases (up from 5.4% on Friday)3 new hospitalizations today, total of 116 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  In this older age group, 20.6% of cases required hospitalization at one time.  This is a much higher percentage than in the lower age groups.  ALSO OF DEEP CONCERN: 2 new deaths in this age group today, total of 39 deaths.  This group accounts for 39 of the 50 deaths, or 78%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 6 new cases today, total of 148 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 2 new cases today, total of 398 cases.
  • Fairfield added 42 new cases today, total of 1,940.
  • Rio Vista added 2 new cases today, total of 40 cases.
  • Suisun City added 10 new case today, total of 429 cases.
  • Vacaville added 6 new cases today, total of 989 cases.
  • Vallejo added 48 new cases today, total of 1,974 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas added 1 new case today, total of 19 cases.

Cases, Hospitalizations & Deaths by Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinex members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 20% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 24% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 32% of cases, 33% of hospitalizations, and 26% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 20% of cases, 21% of hospitalizations and 20% of deaths.
  • (Note that percentages in the County’s Race/Ethnicity chart have not changed over several days.  I wonder if it’s not being updated….)

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at