By Roger Straw, December 16, 2020

A record 372 new positive cases in Solano County in just one day; ACTIVE cases over 2,000 for the first time; 2 new deaths; ICU beds at a dangerous level of only 13% available; and our positivity rate is at 18%.  The virus is spreading here among all age groups.  Solano has come under the Regional stay-at-home order as of tomorrow… See Solano County press release for details.

[Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard (posted on the County website late today, around 8pm).  For a complete archive of County updates, see my Excel ARCHIVE.  ALSO see important daily updates from the state of California at COVID19.CA.GOV, embedded here on the BenIndy at Cases and Deaths AND Hospitalizations AND ICU Beds by REGION.]

Wednesday, December 16: a record of 372 new cases overnight, 2 new deaths.  Since Feb: 14,269 cases, more than 680 hospitalized, 93 deaths.Compare previous report, Tuesday, Dec. 15:Summary

• • Solano County reported a record of 372 (!!) new cases overnight.  As of today, Solano has seen an average increase of 228 (!) new cases per day over the last 14 days! (source: covid19.ca.gov)  Total of 14,269 cases since the outbreak started.
  • Deaths – 2 new deaths reported today, a total of 93 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
  • Active cases – Solano reported a shocking increase of 222 additional active cases today, for a record total of 2,024 active cases.  COMPARE: average number of Active Cases during October was 284, average in November was 650 – and TODAY we are at 2,024!  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – CAUTION ON SOLANO HEALTH DEPARTMENT REPORTING: According to Solano Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas, the County “occasionally” updates Age Group hospitalizations retroactively, adding substantial numbers.  Thus, many hospitalizations are never reported as CURRENTLY hospitalized.  Today, the number of CURRENTLY hospitalized persons fell by 11, total of 107.  But it would seem that Solano County performed its “occasional” update today of those hospitalized among age groups, adding 80 newly reported hospitalizations, for a total of 686 persons hospitalized since the outbreak began.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.  For COVID19-CA.GOV numbers, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.]
  • ICU Beds – Solano County reported only 13% of our ICU beds available today, up from 11% yesterday and still deep in the yellow danger zone.  COVID19-CA.GOV reported today that Solano hospitals had only 11 available ICU beds as of yesterday, December 15.  (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
  • Testing – The County reports today that 1,483 residents were tested overnight, a total of 150,746 unduplicated residents have now been tested for COVID-19 since the outbreak began.  33.7% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate – INCREDIBLY HIGH AT 18%

Solano County reported another dangerously high 7-day average positive test rate today of 18.0%, up a bit from yesterday’s 17.8%, far and away over the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate has also been on the rise lately, up today from 11.1 to 11.9%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group – Surge in case numbers and hospitalizations!

• Youth 17 and under – 48 new cases today, total of 1,601 cases, representing 11.2% of the 14,269 total cases.  3 new hospitalizations reported today among this age group, total of 17 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 14 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 192 (!) new cases today, total of 8,323 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents around 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported 25 (!) new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 220 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this young group today, total of 6 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 78 (!) new cases today, total of 2,835 cases.  This age group represents nearly 20% of the 14,269 total cases.  The County reported 21 (!) new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 184 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 16 deaths.
• Persons 65 years or older – 54 (!) new cases today, total of 1,502, representing 10.5% of Solano’s 14,269 total cases.  The County reported 31 (!) new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 265 have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  2 new deaths were reported in this age group today.  A total of 71 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 76% of Solano’s 93 total deaths.

City Data

• Benicia added 13 new cases today, total of 393 cases since the outbreak began. 
• Dixon added 24 new cases today, total of 1000 cases.
• Fairfield added 81 new cases today, total of 4,180 cases.
• Rio Vista added 6 new cases today, total of 119 cases.
• Suisun City added 27 (!) new cases today, total of 994 cases.
• Vacaville added 71 new cases today, total of 3,108 cases.
• Vallejo added 158 (!!) new cases today, total of 4,432 cases.
• Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 51 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 10% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 16% of hospitalizations, and 22% of deaths.
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 22% of cases, 25% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 27% of cases, 28% of hospitalizations and 33% of deaths.

More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.