Tag Archives: Hospitalizations

Benicia CA, Coronavirus, Covid 19, Hospitalizations, Long-COVID, Solano County CA, Solano County Health Department, Solano County Health Officer Bela Matyas

Dr. Richard Fleming: Reflecting on Solano County’s huge ‘correction’ in COVID numbers

The importance of accurate COVID-19 numbers in Solano and Benicia

By Richard Fleming, M.D., March 12, 2022
[BACKGROUND: Solano Public Health corrects COVID numbers
AND Solano Public Health Director explains.]
Richard Fleming, M.D., Benicia, CA

Having accurate numbers on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, mortality rates, and long-covid rates is very important.

I’m glad Solano County has decided to include positive antigen tests in their case numbers. False positive antigen tests are uncommon, so a positive antigen test almost always means a true infection.

The antigen test is the rapid test done with the at-home kits. Many of these positive antigen test results are not being reported to the county or state, so total covid-19 cases are increasingly being under-counted. Nonetheless, it is appropriate for Solano County to do what other counties have been doing, which is to count positive antigen tests as covid-19 infections.

It is a little surprising the county has decided to start excluding positive serological test results. A positive serological (or antibody) test for COVID-19 is almost always due to a prior COVID-19 infection. I am not sure what the rationale is for deciding to take these cases off the count of covid-19 infections.

One of the biggest data gaps is how many people are facing long-covid problems. In assessing the impact of the virus, this is an important aspect to understand. Sadly, there are currently no county-level, statewide, or even national numbers on how many people are dealing with this condition.

Looking at the big picture, Solano County will, in all likelihood, continue to see better numbers, in parallel with the improvement in the state’s and the country’s numbers.

As we celebrate our progress locally, it is important to look at the fact that neither Benicia nor Solano County is an island, and much of what happens with the pandemic here is impacted by the situation in surrounding areas. There is little doubt that we in Benicia and Solano County have benefitted, and continue to benefit, from the actions of other Bay Area counties, which have much better numbers than we do. These better numbers are no doubt due to the fact these other counties have much higher vaccination rates and have had more stringent public health safeguards in place than has been the case in Solano County and in Benicia.

And, because we are not an island, there is also little doubt that Solano County has made things slightly worse for the other Bay Area counties.

The question which will be hard to answer is whether we (Benicia and Solano County) could have seen fewer hospitalizations, fewer deaths, and fewer cases of long covid had we followed the same public health measures as the rest of the Bay Area, including more masking requirements, more vaccine mandates, and more vaccinations. Actually, the question is not whether we would have had fewer, but how many fewer, in each category.

This is not just an historical question. It is a question which should concern all of us today. How many of the 80 Benicians who acquired covid-19 this past week may have avoided this infection if our city had waited a couple of weeks longer to lift its mask mandate? How about those who will become infected next week? It would be nice if there was some way to quantify that, but it may never be known.

Richard Fleming, M.D.
Benicia, CA

#wearamask, Benicia CA, Benicia City Council, Coronavirus, Covid 19, Face coverings, Omicron variant, Solano County CA, Solano County Health Department, Vaccine, Vaccine mandate

Solano COVID report – much good news, but still… 3 new deaths and 78 new infections

NOTE: The information below is not the latest.  TAP HERE for today’s latest information.

By Roger Straw, Monday, March 14, 2022

Solano County reported 78 new COVID infections today and 3 new deaths.  Good news: Solano no longer in HIGH transmission rate, Benicia falls into MODERATE transmission rate.

Solano Public Health COVID dashboard, Monday, March 14, 2022:

DEATHS:  Solano reported 3 new COVID-related deaths in today’s report.  Fifteen new deaths were reported in February, ALL over 65 years of age.  So far in March, 13 County residents were reported to have died with COVID.  A total of 409 Solano residents have now died of COVID or COVID-related causes over the course of the pandemic.

TRANSMISSION RATE: Good news: With today’s report, Solano moved out of the HIGH transmission rate and into the SUBSTANTIAL rate for the first time since Dec 22, 2021, now showing a total of 286 new cases over the last 7 days. CDC FORMULA: Based on Solano County’s population, 450 or more cases in 7 days places Solano in the CDC’s population-based definition of a HIGH transmission rate.  We would need to drop below 225 cases in 7 days to show MODERATE community transmission.

>ACTIVE CASES: Good news: Solano reported 303 ACTIVE cases today, down from 425 at last report, our lowest number since Dec 15 2021.

CASES BY CITY – Monday, March 14, 2022:

  • BENICIA added 4 new cases today, a total of 3,108 cases since the outbreak began.  TRANSMISSION RATE: Good news! Benicia’s 7-day case count fell to only 13 today, dropping Benicia into the CDC’s MODERATE range for the first time since Dec 6, 2021.  For a city with Benicia’s population, anything over 27 cases in 7 days is considered HIGH TRANSMISSION, and 14 to 27 cases is considered SUBSTANTIAL TRANSMISSION. (See chart below.)

  • Dixon added 1 more case today, total of 4,318 cases.
  • Fairfield added 17 new cases today, total of 22,504 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 0 new cases today, total of 1,185 cases.
  • Suisun City added 5 new cases today, total of 5,888 cases.
  • Vacaville added 17 new cases today, a total of 21,518 cases.
  • Vallejo added 34 new cases today, a total of 25,359 cases.
  • Unincorporated added 0 new cases today, a total of 199 cases.

TEST RATE:  Solano County’s 7-Day Percent Positive Test Rate has fallen dramatically in March, down today to 5% today. Even at this lower rate, SOLANO DOES NOT COMPARE FAVORABLY: The CALIFORNIA 7-day % positive rate was steady today at only 1.6%.  [Source: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Tracking Center] and the U.S. 7-day % positive rate was only 2.7% today. [Source: CDC COVID Data Tracker.] 

HOSPITALIZATIONS:

CURRENT: Good news: the number of those currently hospitalized with COVID in Solano County fell today from 25 to only 13 persons.  Current hospitalizations don’t tell the whole story, though, as it reflects both admissions and discharges.  Only from the increase in total hospitalizations can we know how many new admissions have come into our hospitals as of this date.

TOTAL hospitalizations over the course of the pandemic: Solano updated its Age Group and Race/Ethnicity charts today, adding 2 new hospitalizations, for a pandemic total of 3,767.

ICU Bed Availability in Solano County increased slightly today from 45% to 46%, in the County’s GREEN safe zone .

Ventilator Availability  Good news: Ventilators rose today from 68% to 80% available, in the County’s GREEN safe zone. 

HOW DOES TODAY’S REPORT COMPARE?  See recent reports and others going back to April 20, 2020 in my ARCHIVE of daily Solano COVID updates (an excel spreadsheet).

Click green text above or on the image.

>The data on this page is from the Solano County COVID-19 Dashboard.  The Dashboard is full of much more information and (as of 3/14/2022) is updated Monday and Thursday between 4 and 6pm.  On the County’s dashboard, you can hover a mouse or click on an item for more information.  Note the tabs at top for “Summary, Demographics” and “Vaccines.”  Click here to go to today’s Solano County Dashboard.

See also my BENINDY ARCHIVE of daily Solano COVID updates (an excel spreadsheet).  I have also archived the hundreds of full CORONAVIRUS REPORTS posted here almost daily on the Benicia Independent since April 2020.

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#wearamask, Benicia CA, Benicia City Council, Coronavirus, Covid 19, Face coverings, Omicron variant, Solano County CA, Solano County Health Department, Vaccine, Vaccine mandate

Solano County’s final MWF COVID report: 136 new infections, 98 previously undisclosed hospitalizations

NOTE: The information below is not the latest.  TAP HERE for today’s latest information.

By Roger Straw, Friday, March 11, 2022
[Note: The information below is from Solano County Public Health’s final Mon-Wed-Fri update.  Starting next week, Solano will update it’s COVID-19 Dashboard only on Mondays and Thursdays.  Barring a new surge, I will follow on that same schedule.  – R.S.]

Solano County reported 136 new COVID infections today and 98 new hospitalizations.

Solano Public Health COVID dashboard, Friday, March 11, 2022:

NOTICE: Solano County Public Health will update its COVID Dashboard ONLY ON MONDAYS & THURSDAYS starting next week, Mon 3/14.

DEATHS:  Solano reported no new deaths in today’s report.  Fifteen new deaths were reported in February, ALL over 65 years of age.  So far in March, 10 County residents were reported to have died with COVID.  A total of 406 Solano residents have now died of COVID or COVID-related causes over the course of the pandemic.

Dr. Matyas explains huge increase in COVID cases

TRANSMISSION RATE: With last Monday’s huge increase in case numbers, Solano moved back into the HIGH transmission rate and remains there today, with a total of 4,323 new cases over the last 7 days. But the County has explained that many of Monday’s new cases are based on a ‘different testing procedure’ and predate our last 7 days, so we may not know Solano’s true 7-day case count until next Monday, 3/14. (See also Solano Public Health Director explains…)  CDC FORMULA: Based on Solano County’s population, 450 or more cases in 7 days places Solano in the CDC’s population-based definition of a HIGH transmission rate.  We would need to drop below 225 cases in 7 days to rate as having only MODERATE community transmission.

>ACTIVE CASES: Solano reported 425 ACTIVE cases today, down from 429 at last report, but still far above the County’s 329 active cases on December 1.

CASES BY CITY – Friday, March 11, 2022:

  • BENICIA added 6 new cases today, a total of 3,104 cases since the outbreak began.  TRANSMISSION RATE: The County’s extraordinary update on Monday pushed Benicia’s 7-day case count well into the HIGH range and continues HIGH today at 80 CASES.  But the County has explained that many of these new cases are based on a ‘different testing procedure’ and predate our last 7 days, so we may not know Benicia’s true 7-day case count until next Monday, 3/14.  For a city with Benicia’s population, anything over 27 cases in 7 days is considered HIGH TRANSMISSION. (See chart below.)

  • Dixon added 8 more cases today, total of 4,317 cases.
  • Fairfield added 41 new cases today, total of 22,487 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 1 new case today, total of 1,185 cases.
  • Suisun City added 15 new cases today, total of 5,883 cases.
  • Vacaville added 34 new cases today, a total of 21,501 cases.
  • Vallejo added 31 new cases today, a total of 25,325 cases.
  • Unincorporated added 0 new cases today, a total of 199 cases.

TEST RATE:  Solano County’s 7-Day Percent Positive Test Rate has fallen dramatically in March, down today to 6% today. Even at this lower rate, SOLANO DOES NOT COMPARE FAVORABLY: The CALIFORNIA 7-day % positive rate was steady today at only 1.6%.  [Source: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Tracking Center]

HOSPITALIZATIONS:

CURRENT The number of those currently hospitalized with COVID in Solano County fell today from 29 to 25 persons.  Current hospitalizations don’t tell the whole story, as it reflects both admissions and discharges.  Only from the increase in total hospitalizations can we know how many new admissions have come into our hospitals as of this date.

TOTAL hospitalizations over the course of the pandemic: Solano Public Health played catch-up today, updating its Age Group and Race/Ethnic charts today, adding 98 previously undisclosed hospitalizations, for a pandemic total of 3,765. (The County’s hospitalization numbers for Race/Ethnicity is less accurate, but presented here to show relative percentages.)

ICU Bed Availability in Solano County fell today from 49% to 45%, in the County’s GREEN safe zone .

Ventilator Availability  rose today from 64% to 68% available, but still in the GREEN safe zone. 

HOW DOES TODAY’S REPORT COMPARE?  See recent reports and others going back to April 20, 2020 in my ARCHIVE of daily Solano COVID updates (an excel spreadsheet).

Click green text above or on the image.

>The data on this page is from the Solano County COVID-19 Dashboard.  The Dashboard is full of much more information and (as of 3/14/2022) is updated Monday and Thursday between 4 and 6pm.  On the County’s dashboard, you can hover a mouse or click on an item for more information.  Note the tabs at top for “Summary, Demographics” and “Vaccines.”  Click here to go to today’s Solano County Dashboard.

See also my BENINDY ARCHIVE of daily Solano COVID updates (an excel spreadsheet).  I have also archived the hundreds of full CORONAVIRUS REPORTS posted here almost daily on the Benicia Independent since April 2020.

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Benicia CA, Coronavirus, Covid 19, Hospitalizations, Solano County CA, Solano County Health Department, Solano County Health Officer Bela Matyas

Solano Public Health Director explains this week’s huge increase in COVID cases

By Roger Straw, Friday, March 11, 2022

Dr. Bela Matyas, Public Health Director with the Solano Public Health Department (Chris Riley/Times-Herald)

In the March 6 Fairfield Daily Republic, reporter Todd Hansen wrote about his phone interview with Solano Public Health Director Bela Matyas: “Solano County expects to receive a significant report of previously unreported cases that were identified through a different testing procedure.”

Sure enough, in the County’s March 7 COVID Dashboard update, Public Health reported a whopping 4,115 previously unreported cases in Solano County, and 71 previously unreported cases in Benicia, unprecedented increases and huge numbers by any measure.

I wrote to Public Health Director Dr. Bela Matyas asking for clarification:

Dr. Matyas –

Please explain the meaning of reporter Hansen’s “different testing procedure.”  What accounts for these dramatic increases?

I agree that the numbers show cases declining. But what these revelations clearly do show is that previous updates were vastly under-reported. Are you going back and updating the dates where these new cases were discovered, showing a higher curve?

How is the public to understand in detail what WAS our experience with COVID over the period when these cases were not being uncovered and reported?

Dr. Matyas gave me permission to share his email explanation:

Hi Roger,

The State’s COVID-19 database, CalREDIE, collects several types of laboratory data for COVID-19, including pcr results, rapid antigen test results and serology results.

According to the State, only the pcr results are counted as confirmed cases, and the State’s total of cases for each county represents these confirmed (i.e. pcr-posititve) cases.

For most of the duration of the pandemic, we have noted that the State’s reported case count for Solano is different from our own count.

In continuing to investigate the reason(s) for this, we recently learned that

      • the State’s count of confirmed cases for Solano included several hundred persons whose only laboratory evidence of disease was a serology for COVID-19 (serology is not approved by the FDA for diagnosis, except for Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome of Children [MIS-C]),
      • and it included several hundred persons whose laboratory result was a positive rapid antigen test.

Among those with serology results only were 33 residents who had been hospitalized in out-of-county hospitals (e.g. John Muir), and the diagnoses based only on serology were nearly all from mid-2020 through 2021.

As for the cases with positive rapid antigen tests only, it is difficult to discern a pattern to identify which of these were counted as confirmed cases and which were counted as probable cases (and not, therefore, included in the case count for the county). It is noteworthy, however, that over the last several months, use of rapid antigen tests to diagnose COVID-19 cases rather than use of pcr tests has become increasingly prevalent; in fact, in a growing number of circumstances, the rapid antigen test has become the preferred test for diagnosis and is the test recommended by the State.

Based on this, we decided to remove from our county case count those persons whose diagnosis was based on a serology test only, and this included 33 hospitalized individuals.

By contrast, we decided to include in our county case count those residents whose diagnosis was based on a rapid antigen test only.

The resulting math was to:

      1.  Delete 409 serology-only cases (including 33 hospitalized);
      2.  Add 4410 rapid antigen-only cases; and
      3.  Add 114 cases diagnosed over the prior three days (including 3 hospitalized).

The net result, therefore, was an increase of 4115 cases and a decrease of 30 hospitalizations.

With respect to your specific questions below, yes, the previous updates were significantly under-reported (particularly for January and early February). We do go back and update each of the line curves with date-appropriate data every time we post a new update to the dashboard.

I think it’s difficult for the public to understand in detail what we are experiencing when there are significant issues with data accuracy; we still have significant under-reporting of positive rapid antigen tests from long-term care facilities, from home testing and from pharmacy testing.

I hope to publish a local reflection on Dr. Matyas’ rather complicated explanation.  Stay tuned.  – R. S.

>Reference the Solano County COVID-19 Dashboard where you can hover a mouse or click on an item for additional information.  Note the tabs at top for “Summary, Demographics” and “Vaccines.”  Click here to go to today’s Solano County Dashboard.

See also my BENINDY ARCHIVE of daily Solano COVID updates (an excel spreadsheet).  I have also archived the hundreds of full CORONAVIRUS REPORTS posted here almost daily on the Benicia Independent since April 2020.

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