Category Archives: Coronavirus

ANALYSIS: School reopening becomes the new partisan wedge issue

See also this local perspective on reopening schools: Benicia Black Lives Matter letter opposes School Board recall effort

CNN POLITICS: What Matters

CNN, by Zachary B. Wolf, February 5, 2021

(CNN) The debate over when and how and whether to put American kids back in school is taking on a predictably partisan tinge in Washington, with Republicans targeting teachers’ unions and Democrats over perceived resistance to reopening.

But it’s more complicated than that. The fight over schools slices through red and blue America.

In San Francisco, for instance, despite a waning but still serious outbreak, the city, led by Mayor London Breed, has sued the school district for not having a fully developed plan to get kids back in the classroom. The city attorney said San Francisco kids are being turned into “Zoom-bies.” Breed, who was among the first US mayors to impose strict Covid lockdowns in 2020, wants to know when the kids will be back in schools. She said the nearly full year out of school is hurting communities of color and driving inequality.

In Chicago, the mayor and school board are locked in a standoff with the teachers’ union. “We need our kids back in school. We need our parents to have that option,” Mayor Lori Lightfoot said Thursday. “It cannot be so that a public school system denies parents that right.”

Unions representing teachers who have avoided physically returning to school buildings want vaccines and more safety measures. Parents are getting louder, organizing on social media and running grassroots campaigns to open school doors in the portions of the country where they remain shut. School districts, which are mostly controlled at the local level, keep delaying and punting.

This is a worldwide debate. There’s no consensus in Europe, either.

So which is the party of opening schools?

Democrats, without Republican help so far, are pushing a massive Covid relief package that would give new money to schools and Biden has made opening the majority of schools a key benchmark of his aggressive 100-day plan.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, however, said money isn’t the issue and slammed teachers’ unions, which he said “donate huge sums to Democrats and get a stranglehold over education in many communities.” Read this from CNN’s Dan Merica, Alex Rogers and Gregory Krieg on the new partisan wedge issue.

Republican governors in Ohio and Maryland are ramping up teacher vaccinations and setting early spring deadlines to get teachers and staff vaccinated in anticipation of reopening schools. In West Virginia, Republican Gov. Jim Justice said all teachers and staff who wanted a first dose have gotten it.

About half of states are prioritizing teachers, according to The New York Times. But it’s notable that some of the states with the worst outbreaks, like Texas, have both ordered schools to open and not prioritized teachers to get vaccines.

The tension between present danger and future risk

For the teacher side of things, read this CNN report about the hundreds of American educators who have been among the hundreds of thousands of American Covid deaths. For the student side of things, look at the recent studies suggesting schools that comply with safety guidance are not the cause of Covid spread.

Schools aren’t just not opening, they’re still closing. In Montgomery, Alabama, the school district closed this week until school staff can all get vaccinated after a string of teacher deaths from Covid.

But new US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky said Wednesday vaccines might not be necessary to safely reopen. “There is increasing data to suggest that schools can safely reopen and that safe reopening does not suggest that teachers need to be vaccinated in order to reopen safely,” she told reporters. “Vaccination of teachers is not a prerequisite for the safe reopening of schools.”

That’s not official guidance, cautioned White House press secretary Jen Psaki. When asked about the comments, Psaki said she’d like to see that officially put out by CDC. “Certainly ensuring teachers are vaccinated, prioritizing teachers, is important to the President,” she said.

Re-opening schools won’t immediately fix the problems caused by a year out of them. In Chicago, where the city’s liberal mayor is at war with the city’s teachers’ union, data released by district about who will actually come back when schools open suggests it’s the White kids who will return, while the Black and Brown kids stay home.

Read this from the Chicago Tribune:
> When CPS offered the choice to return to schools to families in the first two waves, 67% of white students opted in, followed by 55% of multiracial students, 34% of Black students, 33% of Asian students and 31% of Latino students. Students with special education plans opted in at a lower-than-average rate, 36%, as did economically disadvantaged students, 32%.

The New York Times points out more White kids have returned to school in New York than Black kids and tries to explain mistrust of the system in communities that have already been frustrated by institutional racism in school facilities, funding and curriculum.

Mistrust of schools and mistrust of vaccines

There’s a frustrating similarity that should be explored in that the same Black and Brown communities that have been slow to adopt the Covid vaccine have been slow to return to school when given the opportunity.

Everyone’s doing things differently. In Virginia, the state Department of Education tracks what each district is doing, and the state map is a color-coded patchwork of open, virtual and hybrid.

Biden’s nominee for education secretary, Miguel Cardona — who was recently in charge of Connecticut’s education system — was asked at his confirmation hearing Wednesday if kids should be tested in this weird year, and whether the federal government will still give districts who don’t test students the federal money that is normally tied to it.

Sen. Richard Burr, a North Carolina Republican, asked the question in a simple way, according to the Washington Post: “Do you feel like the states should incorporate standardized testing this year given the circumstances of the pandemic?”

Cardona gave a very complicated answer. “I feel they should have an opportunity to weigh in on how they plan on implementing it and [on] the accountability issues, and whether or not they should be tied into any accountability measures as well,” he said.

That’s a definite maybe on the testing question, which is better than the “I don’t know” a lot of parents hear from local districts who won’t set timelines to return.

COVID in Solano County: 175 new cases today, 1 youth under 18 hospitalized


By Roger Straw, Friday, February 5, 2021

COVID is still spreading and deadly in Solano County – stay safe this weekend!

EXTRA:  Check out NY Times, “Super Bowl Party or Superspreader Event? Experts offer tips on how to stay safe.

Friday, February 5: 175 new Solano cases overnight, no new deaths.  Since February 2020: 28,686 cases, over 840 hospitalized, 134 deaths.Compare previous report, Thursday, February 4:Summary

[From Solano County Public Health and others, see sources below.  For a running archive of daily County updates, see my Excel ARCHIVE
    • CASES – Solano County reported 175 new cases overnight, total of 28,686 cases since the outbreak started.  In the month of January, Solano added 8,495 new cases, for an AVERAGE of 274 new cases per day.
    • DEATHS – the County reported no new deaths today, a total of 134 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.  12 new COVID deaths were reported in the first 4 days of February!  In the month of January, Solano recorded 24 coronavirus deaths.  While many other COVID stats are improving, the recent surge in deaths is no doubt the final sad result of our holiday surge.
    • ACTIVE cases – Solano reported 70 fewer active cases today, a total of 1,101 active cases.  Compare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases during October was 284, average in November was 650, in December 1,658 – and TODAY we are at 1,101.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  My guess is we just sit back and wait for a voluntary 10 day quarantine to expire.  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
    • HOSPITALIZATIONS – (See expanding ICU capacity and ventilator availability below.)  Today, Solano reported 7 fewer currently hospitalized cases, total of 97.  However, in the number of hospitalizations among age groups, the county reported an increase of 2 new hospitalizations, including 1 person under age 18 and another over 65, for a total of 844 hospitalized in all age groups since the pandemic began.) Even then, accuracy cannot be certain – note>>  In a Dec. 31 Fairfield Daily Republic article, reporter Todd Hanson wrote, “Since the start of the pandemic, and as of Wednesday, 9,486 residents have been hospitalized.”  This startling number is far and away above the number of residents hospitalized as indicated in the County’s count of age group hospitalizations, and not available anywhere on the County’s COVID-19 dashboard.  Asked about his source, Hanson replied that Solano Public Health “had to do a little research on my behalf.”  It would be good if the County could add Total Hospitalized to its daily Dashboard update.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats belowFor COVID19-CA.GOV numbers, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.]
    • ICU BEDS – Solano hospitals recently expanded their ICU capacity [see Benicia Independent, “Why the sudden improvement in our ICU bed numbers?“]  Even with the expanded ICU capacity, Solano County has dropped back and remains in the YELLOW DANGER ZONE in ICU beds available, 28% today, down from 29% yesterday.  The State’s COVID19-CA.GOV reported today that Solano County had ONLY 12 AVAILABLE ICU BEDS as of yesterday, February 4(For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
    • VENTILATORS available – Last week, for the first time since July 24 of last year, Solano County is reporting the percentage of ventilators available.  Today Solano hospitals have 62% of ventilators available, up from yesterday’s 47% but down substantially from last summer’s reports of 82-94% available.
Positive Test Rate – SOLANO TEST RATE REMAINS ALARMINGLY HIGH, 12.2% – VIRUS STILL SPREADING, STAY HOME!

Solano County reported our 7-day average positive test rate of 12.2%, down from yesterday’s 12.7%, but well above the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  COMPARE: The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was 5.8% today, down from yesterday’s 6.1%(Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group
  • Youth 17 and under – 18 new cases overnight, total of 3,309 cases, representing 11.5% of the 28,686 total cases1 new hospitalization was reported today among this very young age group, total of 18 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age groupBut cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 18 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 97 new cases overnight, total of 15,851 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 55.3% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 243 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 9 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 42 new cases overnight, total of 6,011 cases.  This age group represents 21% of the 28,686 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 230 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were reported in this age group today, a total of 21 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 18 new cases overnight, total of 3,504, representing 12.2% of Solano’s 28,686 total cases.  The County reported 1 new hospitalization among persons in this age group today, a total of 353 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were  reported in this age group today.  A total of 104 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 78% of Solano’s 134 total deaths.
City Data
  • Benicia added 5 new cases overnight, total of 819 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 9 new case overnight, total of 1,693 cases.
  • Fairfield added 45 new cases overnight, total of 7,844 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 5 new case overnight, total of 278 cases.
  • Suisun City added 7 new case overnight, total of 1,925 cases.
  • Vacaville added 41 new cases overnight, total of 7,586 cases.
  • Vallejo added 63 new cases overnight, total of 8,455 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 86 cases.
Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 17% of hospitalizations, and 22% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 13% of cases, 21% of hospitalizations, and 13% of deaths.
  • Multi-race / Others are 7% of Solano’s population, but account for 35% of cases, 18% of hospitalizations, and 12% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 29% of cases, 31% of hospitalizations and 33% of deaths.

More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Source
Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard (posted on the County website late today).  ALSO see important daily updates from the state of California at COVID19.CA.GOV, embedded here on the BenIndy at Cases and Deaths AND Hospitalizations AND ICU Beds by REGION.

New York Times on how to plan for a safe Super Bowl party

Super Bowl Party or Superspreader Event?

Experts offer tips on how to stay safe. For one, don’t plan on shouting or cheering with your friends.

New York Times, by By Christina Caron, Feb. 4, 2021

For millions of football fans, Super Bowl Sunday has become the equivalent of a major holiday. It’s like Thanksgiving, only with way more shouting, drinking, hugging and dipping into shared snacks. But this year, public health experts are urging everyone to tone it down and take special precautions when watching the big game.

“I know that no one wants to be the guy that got hospitalized or died because of the Super Bowl,” said Dr. Joshua Barocas, an infectious diseases physician at Boston Medical Center. “With the highly transmissible variants around and a largely unvaccinated public, we are all at high risk.”

Last year, gatherings to watch Lakers games during the N.B.A. finals were believed to have accelerated the virus’s surge in Southern California, officials in Los Angeles said. And after the fall and winter holidays, coronavirus cases spiked in some parts of the country as people skirted public health guidelines to celebrate with one another.

Now, after what has been nearly a year of social distancing, Sunday’s matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs is beckoning.

“It’s not like Thanksgiving where millions and millions are traveling, but will we see cases linked to Super Bowl parties at people’s homes? I think most definitely yes,” said Joseph G. Allen, an expert on indoor environmental quality at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

According to a recent Seton Hall University survey of more than 1,500 adults across the country, 58 percent said that they will watch the Super Bowl this year. And of those, a quarter are planning to do so with people from outside their households. Another study, from the National Retail Federation, found that 28 percent of those who intend to watch the Super Bowl are planning to either host or attend a party, or watch the game at a bar.

Here are three ways that fans might watch the game this Sunday, ranked from least to most risky, and some guidance from experts on how to stay safe.

Least Risky

With household members
The experts we spoke with echoed recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that the safest way to watch the game is at home with only the people you live with. And in recent surveys, most Super Bowl fans have indicated that this is exactly what they’ll do.

Gathering with people from outside your household is taking a risk, Dr. Allen said.

You can still include other family and friends virtually. The C.D.C. recommends connecting with others by sharing recipes, starting text chains or hosting a party online. You can use Zoom, Google Hangouts or streaming services with virtual group watch features.

Sandra Albrecht, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health in New York City, is planning to attend a watch party on Zoom.

“I’m a huge football fan, and I watch the Super Bowl every year,” she said. “But this is one year where my family and I will forgo any in-person parties and will instead enjoy the game in the remote company of family and friends.”

Another potential benefit of sticking with only the people in your household: It can be less stressful. You don’t have to worry as much about who’s double dipping in the salsa or if the windows are open wide enough.

More Risky

With non-household members — outdoors
When people talk, shout, cheer or laugh outdoors, the tiny droplets of saliva that come out of their mouths are more rapidly dispersed into the environment and become more diluted. That means that when you’re outdoors with others, you’ll be less likely to get infected than if you were indoors with the same group of people.

But the risk is not zero. If you decide to attend an outdoor gathering with people from other households, it’s still important to wear masks the entire time (except when eating) and to stay at least six feet apart, the experts said.

Erin Jackson, 38, and her husband invited 11 guests to watch the Super Bowl on a 100-inch screen in their large backyard in Chapel Hill, N.C.

“We also had a lot of discussions over whether to do anything at all, because we are terrified about not being cautious,” Ms. Jackson said.

So they came up with a few rules: Everyone has to bring their own snacks, the house will be off limits and the chairs will be placed at least six feet apart.

So far, nobody has committed to showing up.

“It felt like an opportunity to reach out to our relatively small group of friends here and let them know we were thinking about them and that we wanted to be spending time with them,” Ms. Jackson said. But, she added, they also recognized that “probably very few would take us up on it.”

If you decide to go to an outdoor venue, like a bar or a restaurant, the C.D.C. recommends calling ahead of time to find out which (if any) precautions they have taken.

Most Risky

With non-household members — indoors
Each of the experts we spoke with, along with the C.D.C., strongly advised against gathering indoors with people you don’t live with. Some evidence suggests that small gatherings have driven virus transmission in certain areas. In December, for example, New York announced that its contact tracing data showed that 70 percent of new Covid-19 cases originated from households and small gatherings.

Even so, meeting indoors might be tempting for fans who live in parts of the country where temperatures are expected to dip below freezing on Sunday.

But if people snack inside someone’s home and talk loudly throughout the game, “such conditions are ideal for the spread of the coronavirus,” said Linsey Marr, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Virginia Tech who studies viruses in the air. “People can spread the disease without feeling any symptoms.”

If you decide to take the risk, make sure to wear a mask at all times and stay at least six feet from others. And if you want to eat and drink, “do it outside and distanced from others,” Dr. Marr said.

If you’re the host of the party, keep the guest list as small as you can, ideally just one or two people from outside your household. Alternatively, if you’ve been invited to a party, try to find out how many people will be attending and what size party you would be most comfortable with. Don’t feel pressured to stay for the entire game; Dr. Marr suggested dropping by for the length of a quarter to diminish your exposure to others.

Finally, make sure the windows and doors are cracked open. “Even just a few inches can make a big difference to improve ventilation,” Dr. Marr said.

More Ways to Protect Yourself and Others

If you gather with others, the C.D.C. says there are general precautions you can take to stay as safe as possible. Try to avoid shouting, cheering loudly or singing, which can increase the amount of respiratory droplets in the air. Instead, clap, stomp your feet or use noisemakers.

The C.D.C. also recommends bringing your own food, drinks, plates, cups and utensils.

If people drink too much alcohol, they might let their guard down or relax the rules. So be mindful of how the people around you are behaving and control how much you’re consuming so that you can keep a clear head.

Finally, don’t get lulled into a false sense of security. Even if everyone has been fully vaccinated, it can take a week or two after the second shot to build peak protection. And while vaccinated people are less likely to get severe Covid-19, experts don’t yet know if they can still spread the virus to others, said Dr. Asaf Bitton, a primary care physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital who specializes in public health.

Finally, remember that negative coronavirus tests are no guarantee of safety. The virus may not have been detectable on the day of the test or the result could be a false negative.

“One test at one point in time is just not going to give you the clarity that you need to know that it’s safe for your groups to get together,” Dr. Bitton said.