No one wants to see a return to the purple tier, but many in Solano County are concerned about the rise in COVID cases among younger people.
Things aren’t looking so good for coronavirus trends here in Solano County. But wait… the State is easing restrictions?
Here on the Benicia Independent, I have documented coronavirus weekday reports in Solano County since April of last year. I’m a layperson, untrained in public health, but I’ve paid attention to the COVID spikes and trends we have experienced in the Solano cities of Benicia, Vallejo, Fairfield, Suisun City, Vacaville, Rio Vista and Dixon.
Recently increasing numbers of positive cases here in Solano County (292 new cases last week) are nowhere near what they were this January, when we averaged 274 new cases per day. But modest upturns in the numbers have caught my attention, and have begun to make news in major Bay Area media (see below). Our typically overly optimistic Solano Public Health officer has even issued a warning. What gained my attention yesterday was these two seemingly contrary headlines:
There are news stories like these all over the map, from rosy re-opening stories to dire warnings of a fourth surge. This morning’s Vallejo Times-Herald is FULL of coronavirus articles with contradictory messaging: we’re winning against the virus, we’re losing the battle.
I am seriously concerned that Solano County is headed for another surge. And I think the State of California is not helping. Easing of restrictions at this moment in our national and local crisis is wrong.
My home state of Michigan is seeing new cases soar in recent weeks, to more than 5,600 cases a day from about 1,000 on Feb. 21. The Michigan Governor is setting up 37 new ‘popup’ COVID testing sites for Spring Break, doubling down on vaccine administration, and asking for masking and distancing, but it’s clearly too little, too late.
Will California go the route of Michigan? I hope not, but I’m worried I’m wrong. Will Solano County Public Health officials learn to ignore the deniers among us, including certain County Supervisors? Maybe it will come down to City officials again, and Benicia’s new City Manager Erik Upson will need to take it into his own hands to declare a public emergency, as did his predecessor.
California is preparing to retire its color-coded tiered reopening plan as vaccination rates improve and coronavirus cases continue to drop, state officials said Friday, as several Bay Area counties prepared to move into a less restrictive tier next week.
Details about a so-called green tier — which would presumably allow almost all activities to resume in counties with very low threat from the virus — will be “coming soon” as part of the state’s transition toward shutting down the tiered system entirely, said Dee Dee Myers, the state’s top economic adviser.
“We said we would reopen the economy as soon as it was safe to do so,” Myers said during a Friday briefing during which she and the state health officer introduced guidance bringing back indoor events and large private gatherings.
The optimistic update from the state came as cases continue to climb in other parts of the United States and public health officials nationally and locally advised extreme caution in reopening the economy.
Cases are still declining in California, though they’ve flattened in some counties, and the state plans to open vaccine access to everyone 16 and older in less than two weeks as supply improves. Only three counties — none in the Bay Area — remain in the most restrictive purple tier of California’s pandemic reopening plan.
The four Bay Area counties in the red tier, the second most restrictive, could all move to orange next week. Only Sonoma County is currently meeting the state’s orange tier metrics, but the other three — Contra Costa, Napa and Solano — could move too, based on an expected readjustment to the metrics tied to vaccine equity.
The new metrics could also allow San Francisco to move to the least-restrictive yellow tier a bit faster, though the earliest it would be eligible is April 13.
Sonoma County, which had been stuck in the purple tier for more than six months before moving to red three weeks ago, is poised to move into orange on Tuesday unless its numbers suddenly tank — as happened with Napa County last week, when it just missed moving to the orange tier.
“It’s hard to predict for sure, but at the moment, it looks likely that we’re on track to enter orange tier sometime next week,” said Kim Holden, a spokesperson for the county’s Public Health Department.
The move would mean wineries could open indoor tasting rooms and bars, and music and sports venues could open outdoors with limits. Sonoma County would join San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Alameda and Santa Clara counties in the orange tier. The state announces new tier assignments every Tuesday, and the relaxed restrictions take effect on Wednesday.
The three other Bay Area counties that remain in the red tier don’t currently meet metrics to move to orange. But they will once the state readjusts those metrics.
California announced a plan in early March tying the number of vaccinations in low-income communities to an accelerated reopening system. The tier assignments already were loosened once, when the state reached 2 million vaccinations in those communities. They will be further loosened when the state hits 4 million vaccinations.
As of Friday the state was at 3.7 million vaccinations in low-income communities. “It’s very possible that sometime next week we will be crossing that (4 million) threshold,” said Dr. Tomás Aragón, the state health officer, on Friday.
Currently, counties need to report fewer than 3.9 cases per 100,000 residents, adjusted based on the amount of testing they do, to move to the orange tier. Contra Costa, Napa and Solano counties are all above that rate. But when the metrics are readjusted, the new maximum case rate for the orange tier will be 5.9 per 100,000. All three counties meet that metric.
“We are currently holding steady and well within the red tier at 5.5 cases per day per 100,000, and especially so when the state closes in on the 4 million doses,” said Shai Davis, a spokesperson for Solano County’s health department . “We aim to see a downward trend in daily new cases and be able to progress to the orange tier when eligible.”
The tier adjustments also would lower the case rate for the yellow tier — from 1 case per 100,000 currently to under 2 cases per 100,000. San Francisco is meeting the second goal, but under state rules it must remain in the orange tier for at least one more week before moving to yellow.
Despite the encouraging signs, the Solano County Department of Health and Social Services on Thursday urged residents to continue to adhere to coronavirus mitigation measures through the upcoming religious and spring break holidays, noting an uptick of new cases.
“The rising number of COVID-19 cases is concerning, especially as we approach the holidays where the risk of spread can increase,” said Dr. Bela Matyas, the county’s health officer , in a statement. “Being in the red tier does not mean we can let our guard down.”
Santa Clara County’s public health officials also cautioned vigilance as they are continuing to see increases in the number and proportion of confirmed cases of coronavirus variants.
“We’re already seeing surges in other parts of the country, likely driven by variants. Combined with the data we are seeing locally, these are important warning signs that we must continue to minimize the spread,” said Dr. Sara Cody, the Santa Clara County health officer.
As of last week, every variant of concern has been detected in Santa Clara County, including variants that are more infectious and may be partially resistant to vaccines. Officials said the county continues to face inadequate vaccine supply.
“If we can’t get more supply, and continued adherence to behavior like wearing masks, then we do anticipate another surge. I would hope it would be a swell, not a surge,” Cody said. She defined a swell as a less intense surge.
“We need people to hold on just a little bit longer,” she said. “Don’t indoor dine, don’t host an indoor gathering, don’t travel. Even if it’s allowed under the state rules, don’t do it. It’s not safe, not yet.”
Although numerous counties in California such as Alameda and Santa Cruz moved from the COVID-19 red tier to the the less restrictive orange tier this week, Solano won’t be joining them anytime soon.
Solano has been in the red tier for three weeks, but recent data has county health officials concerned that there is a slight chance it could be headed backward and into a more restrictive purple tier once again.
“No, we’re not moving into orange this week,” Solano County Public Health Administrator Jayleen Richards said, with a sigh. “Last week we started to see some data not trending upwards. We could actually go from the red tier back to purple if we don’t start following all the guidelines. We’re not there yet, but I’m worried about the slight increase of positive cases.”
Counties must remain in a tier for at least three weeks before moving to a less restrictive tier. Those counties must also meet the next tier’s criteria for two consecutive weeks to move to a less restrictive tier. If a county’s metrics worsen for two consecutive weeks, it will be assigned a more restrictive tier.
There was speculation Tuesday that Napa County was also going to move into the orange. However, it was announced Wednesday that Napa County will have to stay in the stricter red tier after an uptick in cases. That means winery indoor tasting rooms will remained closed for now.
The new tier assignments for Alameda and Santa Cruz counties will take effect on Wednesday.
As of Tuesday afternoon, Solano County has seen 31,121 cases and 197 deaths, according to the Solano County health site. According to the state website (which has often differed from the county site) there has been 5.5 new COVID cases per day as well as a 1.9 positivity rate (7-day average). The health equity quartile positivity rate is 2.3 percent.
“We’re doing really well in the equity rate measure, but we’re not quite there in other categories,” Richards said. “I want to have businesses reopen and be operating just as much as anyone, but we must keep doing things like masking and keeping a safe distance apart to to keep the elderly and vulnerable healthy.”
Taking in the recent data, Richards said Solano wouldn’t go back into a purple tier this week but she worries about the weeks ahead. She also stated that now the earliest that Solano can move ahead to the orange tier is mid-April.
“We’ll know more in about a week or so,” Richards said. “But the fact that the numbers are going in the wrong direction could be attributed to many things. It could be just an overall feeling that people go to a vaccination clinic to get their shots and they have a feeling that everything is back to normal. Then you add that the sun is out and the weather is better, which is causing large groups again. We’re just not quite there yet.”
The orange tier allows for bars that don’t serve food to reopen outdoors, and lets wineries, distilleries and breweries without food service start seating customers inside.
Bowling alleys and cardrooms can reopen as well, and indoor operations at churches, movie theaters, restaurants and museums would be subject to higher capacity limits.
Amusement parks such as Vallejo’s Six Flags Discovery Kingdom got the green light to welcome the public back starting Thursday, as long as their counties are in the red tier or better, under rules the state previously announced.
After Solano County moved into the red tier, the Vallejo City Unified School District announced that some schools are set to return to class on April 12.
The new tier assignment appeared to similarly allow the Oakland A’s to welcome more fans when its season starts Thursday, because the orange stage bumps up capacity limits for stadiums from 20 percent to 33 percent. The San Francisco Giants are also planning on letting fans back in their ballpark in April.
Bay Area News Group writers Nico Savidge and Shayna Rubin contributed to this story.
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