Category Archives: Covid 19

COVID-19 more deadly than previously reported, far more deadly than flu

Is COVID-19 deadlier than we thought?

Case fatality rate now twice what WHO reported in March
Graves of people who died in the past 30 days fill a new section of the Nossa Senhora Aparecida cemetery, amid the new coronavirus pandemic in Manaus, Brazil, Monday, 5/11/20. The new section was opened last month to cope with a sudden surge in deaths. (AP Photo/Felipe Dana)
Vallejo Times-Herald, By John Woolfolk, May 14, 2020
Among the key questions shaping debate around restrictive health measures to combat COVID-19 is how dangerous is the new coronavirus. Is it more like a bad strain of influenza, or is it deadlier?

Health experts say it’s too early in the pandemic for a definitive answer because the basic information to make that calculation — how many people contracted COVID-19 and how many died of it — isn’t fully known due to testing limitations.

But on March 3, before the rapid spread of cases prompted lockdowns around the U.S., the World Health Organization’s director- general reported that “globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” and “by comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.”

Today, by the WHO’s global case and fatality tally, the world’s COVID-19 death rate is twice what it reported in March — 7%. Other organizations tracking figures, such as Johns Hopkins University, show a similarly high global case fatality rate. Regionally, the figures vary more. WHO and Johns Hopkins figures for the U.S. show a rate around 6%, while the WHO’s figures for Europe indicate a rate of 9%.

“COVID19 is a pretty severe disease,” said Santa Clara Valley Medical Center Dr. Heng Duong, who rattled off similar case fatality rates to the Santa Clara County board of supervisors this week. “It is true most people do OK. But when folks get sick, they get really sick.”

By comparison, SARS — Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome — caused by a cousin of the new coronavirus killed 774 — 10% — of the 8,098 people it infected in a 2003 outbreak, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But that virus proved not nearly as infectious, so it didn’t spread far.

The 1918-19 influenza pandemic, one of the most severe in history, which killed an estimated 50 million globally and 675,000 in the U.S., is generally estimated to have had a case fatality rate of more than 2.5%.

Duong and other experts said the true case fatality rate for COVID-19 may be much lower because there likely are a large number of people who have been infected with mild symptoms and were not confirmed through testing, which has largely been focused on those seeking hospital treatment or in highrisk settings.

But Duong added that “even if the case fatality rate is closer to 1%, that’s actually very high,” noting that seasonal influenza’s fatality rate is about a tenth of that.

In the U.S., 80% of COVID- 19 deaths have been among those age 65 and older, according to the CDC.

What does all this mean for us? Dr. Robert Siegel, a Stanford University professor of microbiology and immunology, said the relative danger of the disease has been part of a tug-ofwar between advocates and critics of public health lockdowns aimed at checking the virus’ spread. But the specific case rate ultimately doesn’t matter much — the public health response will be the same.

“There is a political component in how these things are being estimated,” Siegel said. “The fact is, we know this is a serious disease. We already know this is more serious than the flu. If you get the disease and the case fatality rate is 1% or the case fatality rate is 5%, I think you’d treat those the same. That would be an alarmingly high rate — you wouldn’t play Russian Roulette with those odds. If it’s 1 in a million that’s something else.”

The debate comes amid recent reports acknowledging a wider array of symptoms and complications in many COVID-19 cases — from “COVID-toe” skin lesions and loss of smell to kidney, heart and neurological damage, blood clots and strokes. Duong noted that influenza can cause some of those symptoms in some cases too, though the frequency has been higher with COVID-19. Still, he said about eight in 10 infected with the disease are able to ride it out at home.

Dr. Stephen Luby, an epidemiologist and professor of medicine at Stanford University, believes broader testing will eventually increase the number of people who have been infected and pull down the case fatality rate. “Some people do become very ill from this virus, but I do not see any evidence that this is substantially worse than the cases reported out of China early in the epidemic,” Luby said. “I still expect the infection fatality ratio to remain less than 1%. I expect that it will be worse than a typical influenza year, but not as bad as the influenza pandemic in 1919.”

COVID-19 Solano UPDATE on May 13 – Carbon copy of yesterday: 1 new death, 9 new cases


Wednesday, May 13: 9 new positive cases, 1 new death. Total now 397 cases, 12 deaths.

Solano County Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Updates and Resources.  Check out basic information in this screenshot.  IMPORTANT: The County’s interactive page has more.  On the County website, you can click on “Number of cases” and then hover over the charts for detailed information.

Previous report, Tuesday, May 12

Summary

Solano County reported 9 new positive cases again today, total is now 397.  And again, we have 1 new death, total now at 12.  Also just like yesterday, another new case was a young person under age 18.  And again as yesterday, the death was an elder, age 65 or older.  This makes 5 new deaths in just 5 days since Friday May 8.

BY AGE GROUP

  • 1 new case of a young person under 19 years of age, total of 8 cases, just over 2% of the 397 confirmed cases.
  • 2 of today’s 9 new cases were persons 19-64 years of age, total of 281 cases, 71% of the total.   No new deaths, total of 2.  Note that only 35 of the 281 cases in this age group (12.5%) were hospitalized at one time.  (It is unclear whether the 2 deaths were ever hospitalized.)
  • 6 of today’s 28 new cases were persons 65 or older, total of 108 cases, 27% of the total.  1 new death, total of 10.  Note that 26 of the 108 cases in this age group (24.1%) were hospitalized at one time, nearly double the percentage in the mid-age group(It is unclear whether the 10 deaths in this age group were ever hospitalized.)

HOSPITALIZATIONS: 61 of Solano’s 397 cases resulted in hospitalizations, same as yesterday.  Good news – no increase.

ACTIVE CASES:  More good news: only 42 of the 397 cases are active, and this is 5 fewer than yesterday.   Note that the county does not report WHERE the active cases are.  Below you will see that only 15 are currently hospitalized, which leaves 27 of these 42 active cases out in our communities somewhere, and hopefully quarantined.

The County’s “Hospital Impact” graph shows 15 of the 61 hospitalized cases are CURRENTLY hospitalized, 2 more than yesterday.  (Don’t ask me how TOTAL hospitalizations can remain at 61 while CURRENTLY hospitalized increases by 2.  There must be an error or a correction of a previous error….)  The County’s count of ICU beds available and ventilator supply remains at “GOOD” at 31-100%. (No information is given on our supply of test kits, PPE and staff.)

CITY DATA

This report mirrors exactly yesterday’s report:

  • Vallejo added 8 of today’s 9 new cases, total of  238.
  • Fairfield remains at 67 cases.
  • Vacaville added 1 of today’s 9 new cases, total of 38.
  • Suisun City remains at 20 cases.
  • Benicia remains at 18 cases.
  • Dixon, Rio Vista and “Unincorporated” are still not assigned numerical data: today all remain at <10 (less than 10).  Note that the numbers for other cities add up to 381, leaving 16 cases located somewhere among the locations in this “<10” category (same number as last reported).  Residents and city officials have pressured County officials for city case counts.  Today’s data is welcome, but still incomplete.

TESTING

The County reports that 5,934 residents have been tested as of today.  This is an increase of 265 residents tested since yesterday’s total of 5,669.  This comes a week after the County announced the opening of new State run testing sites in Vacaville and Vallejo, open to anyoneAre we beginning to see our testing numbers surge?
· See
Solano testing – by the numbers April 13 – present.
· See also Solano County announces testing available to all.
We have a long way to go:
only 1.2% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Solano’s upward curve – as of May 13

This chart shows the infection’s steady upward trajectory in Solano County.  Our “curve” continues to creep up.  Our nursing homes, long-term care facilities and jails bear watching!

Still incredibly important – everyone stay home, wear masks when you are out, and be safe!

COVID-19: Mike Thompson survey suggests constituents want caution in reopening

Strong support for more Fed funding for public services also noted

U.S. Congressman Mike Thompson listens to a question from one of his constituents at the Lower Lake Coffee & Cream Cafe in 2019 during a question and answer event.
Vallejo Times-Herald, by Lake Co Record Bee, May 13, 2020

WASHINGTON – Congressman Mike Thompson (CA-05) has released the results of a coronavirus relief survey that polled constituents about their experience during the coronavirus pandemic.

The survey was conducted from May 1 through May 8 and results include answers from 4,605 respondents. The survey was emailed out to constituents via Thompson’s mail records list as well as circulated via press reports and Thompson’s social media accounts. Respondents were chosen by self-selection.

Among other things, results suggest a majority of Thompson’s constituency is in support of “cautiously” reopening the economy to prioritize public health, while a significant minority is in support of opening up more quickly to benefit businesses.

“Despite social distancing guidelines that keep us apart, I want to ensure I am doing everything I can to connect with people in our community and ensure their needs are met during this crisis,” said Thompson in a statement. “That’s why I launched my Coronavirus Relief Survey and why I am glad to have input from more than 4,000 people in our district. The results are clear—people want more support from the Federal government. Nearly everyone polled supports expanding the programs started in the CARES Act, such as the Paycheck Protection Program and the expanded unemployment insurance program. The vast majority also favor a cautious approach to opening up our community to ensure the health and safety of our neighbors and friends. Know that these results will inform my continued work to bring Federal relief back to our district.”

Full results of Thompson’s Coronavirus Relief Survey are as follows:

Have you been hurt financially by the COVID-19 pandemic?
  • Yes, somewhat: 43.8%
  • No, not at all: 30.2%
  • Yes, very much: 26%
Have you received a stimulus payment?
  • Yes: 42.3%
  • No, but I’m expecting a payment: 30.5%
  • No, I’m not eligible: 21%
  • No, the IRS website is unable to find my information: 6.3%
If yes, have you experienced any issues receiving the amount for which you are eligible? If you answered no to the previous question, skip this question.
  • No: 76.5%
  • Not sure:14.9%
  • Yes: 8.7%
Which CARES Act programs (if any) have helped you or your family?
  • Stimulus payment: 35.1%
  • None: 33.8%
  • Expanded unemployment insurance: 10.7%
  • Small business assistance (PPP, EIDL, etc.): 7.1%
  • Student loan relief: 4.7%
  • Not sure: 3.9%
  • Mortgage forbearance: 3.2%
  • Other: 1.7%
Which CARES Act programs (if any) do you think should be extended or increased?
  • Small business assistance (PPP, EIDL, etc.): 22%
  • Expanded unemployment insurance: 21%
  • Stimulus payment: 16.8%
  • Student loan relief: 15.6%
  • Mortgage forbearance: 15.6%
  • Not sure: 3.3%
  • Other: 3%
  • None: 2.6%
Are you waiting to hear back on any CARES Act relief you have applied for?
  • No: 65.9%
  • Yes, waiting for information or a check from the IRS: 15.1%
  • Yes, waiting for information on unemployment benefits: 10.4%
  • Yes, waiting to hear back on a small business loan: 8.6%
How would you like to see the “re-opening” of our communities play out?
  • More cautiously to prioritize protecting public health: 69.3%
  • More quickly to prioritize getting people back to work: 23.9%
  • Not sure: 3.8%
  • Other: 3%
Do you think Congress should provide more funds to help schools, hospitals, paramedics, police departments, and other services in future coronavirus legislation?
  • Yes: 74.8%
  • Not sure: 12.9%
  • No: 12.2%

State restrictions likely to keep Solano from opening higher-risk businesses this week

The Solano County Board of Supervisors meeting commences, Tuesday, May 12, 2020. (Courtesy photo)
Fairfield Daily Republic, By Todd R. Hansen, May 13, 2020

FAIRFIELD — Solano County will continue to open businesses that present a low risk for transmitting the novel coronavirus, while assertively lobbying the state to allow more local control on deciding what kind of businesses can be opened and when.

However, what was anticipated as a possible easing of restrictions on medium-risk businesses in the county this week, including restaurants, is not likely to happen because of conflicts with the state’s “roadmap” for reopening the economy.

Terry Schmidtbauer, assistant director of the Department of Resource Management, told the Board of Supervisors on Tuesday that there is a disconnect between the county’s approach – based on transmission risk – and the state’s approach, which is largely based on business sectors.

The state additionally has varying levels within each stage, while the county basically has three risk categories: low, medium and high.

Dr. Bela Matyas

“It’s like saying you can’t cook the food at home unless you show all the food has been grown in the state,” Dr. Bela Matyas, the county public health officer, told the board. “So we find ourselves in a state of confusion.”

Matyas noted that the county is ready to open some activities – such as churches and fitness centers – because Public Health officials believe there are relatively simple ways to enforce social distancing. The state, however, places them in an even higher-risk category.

Churches, for example, could space out where people sit, and even offer additional sermons so smaller crowds could attend each. Collection plates would not be passed from person to person, and instead, stationary donation receptacles would be provided.

To go against the state guidelines, however, could mean the loss of relief funds to reimburse the county for its Covid-19 costs. The state typically picks up the 25 percent that is not covered by the federal reimbursement.

Supervisor Jim Spering noted that the costs related to closing down businesses far exceeds the estimated $2 million the county anticipates it will have spent by the time the worst of this crisis is done.

Supervisor Jim Spering

“There is a sensitivity to those individuals, to those businesses that are being destroyed,” Spering said.

But the costs are also being seen in more suicides, an increase in domestic violence and other similar results.

Vacaville High School freshman Amanda Moe, 15, said prior to the meeting that she had a friend who overdosed, although he did survive. She said her friend was in a dysfunctional family environment, and with the schools shuttered, he did not have that “safe place” to go.

She later told the supervisors that students, particularly seniors, have missed out on so much with the schools closed.

The Public Health Division reported another death in the county related to Covid-19, bringing the total to 11. It was the fourth death since the Friday afternoon update, and like the last seven deaths reported in the county, the individual was under hospice care at the Windsor Vallejo Nursing and Rehabilitation Center.

The number of cases increased from 379 to 388, according to the county’s Tuesday afternoon update. The number of active cases increased by one, to 47, while the number of residents who are hospitalized remained at 13.

There have been 5,669 residents tested, up from 5,576 Monday as the county’s testing capacity continues to increase.

Vallejo accounted for eight of the nine newly reported confirmed cases, bringing the city’s total to 230. The other new case was reported in Vacaville, now at 37 cases. Fairfield remained at 67 cases, while Suisun City, at 20, and Benicia, at 18, also stayed the same as Monday’s report. Dixon, Rio Vista and the unincorporated areas of the county each report fewer than 10 cases.

A group of nearly two dozen protesters, including Moe and her mother, gathered in the lobby as they entered the government center Tuesday. Members of the public were allowed to attend the meeting for the first time in five meetings.

Cheri Moe said she believes the Covid-19 numbers are being skewed purposely.

“I think if it was as severe as they want us to believe, we would all know more people who (have Covid-19),” she said.

Individuals carried signs urging that all businesses be open, and at least one man warned that the county, state and the nation are facing a “deep recession” or “depression” if something is not done soon.

Ted Hunter, 80, called the response to the Covid-19 an “arrogance for power” at all levels of government, though he said the county was only a small part of the problem.

In fact, much of the criticism, including from supervisors, was leveled at Gov. Gavin Newsom and what was described by Spering in more general terms as the state’s “heavy hand” in dealing with the business community.

Those comments were largely focused on state threats to take alcohol licenses away from some bars that have opened in other counties in direct defiance of the state’s guidelines. The threat of not releasing disaster funding also was noted.

However, the county also carries a stick when enforcing its guidelines, ranging from civil fines to criminal misdemeanor charges. To date, the county is only aware of one business that has been cited, and that was a barbershop that Vacaville issued a cease-and-desist order to based on not complying with the county health order.

Most people who have the novel coronavirus experience only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. Some people, especially older adults and those with underlying health problems, experience more severe illness such as pneumonia and at times, death.

The vast majority of people recover. The World Health Organization reports people with mild illness recover in about two weeks, while those with more severe illness may take three to six weeks to recover.