Category Archives: Covid 19

The world is on lockdown. So where are all the carbon emissions coming from?

Tayfun Coskun / Anadolu Agency / Getty Images
Grist, by Shannon Osaka, Apr 27, 2020

Pedestrians have taken over city streets, people have almost entirely stopped flying, skies are blue (even in Los Angeles!) for the first time in decades, and global CO2 emissions are on-track to drop by … about 5.5 percent.

Wait, what? Even with the global economy at a near-standstill, the best analysis suggests that the world is still on track to release 95 percent of the carbon dioxide emitted in a typical year, continuing to heat up the planet and driving climate change even as we’re stuck at home.

A 5.5-percent drop in carbon dioxide emissions would still be the largest yearly change on record, beating out the financial crisis of 2008 and World War II. But it’s worth wondering: Where do all of those emissions come from? And if stopping most travel and transport isn’t enough to slow down climate change, what will be?

“I think the main issue is that people focus way, way too much on people’s personal footprints, and whether they fly or not, without really dealing with the structural things that really cause carbon dioxide levels to go up,” said Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist and the director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City.

Transportation makes up a little over 20 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions, according to the International Energy Agency. (In the United States, it makes up around 28 percent.) That’s a significant chunk, but it also means that even if all travel were completely carbon-free (imagine a renewable-powered, electrified train system, combined with personal EVs and battery-powered airplanes), there’d still be another 80 percent of fossil fuel emissions billowing into the skies.

So where are all those emissions coming from? For one thing, utilities are still generating roughly the same amount of electricity — even if more of it’s going to houses instead of workplaces. Electricity and heating combined account for over 40 percent of global emissions. Many people around the world rely on wood, coal, and natural gas to keep their homes warm and cook their food — and in most places, electricity isn’t so green either.

Even with a bigger proportion of the world working from home, people still need the grid to keep the lights on and connect to the internet. “There’s a shift from offices to homes, but the power hasn’t been turned off, and that power is still being generated largely by fossil fuels,” Schmidt said. In the United States, 60 percent of electricity generation still comes from coal, oil, and natural gas. (There is evidence, however, that the lockdown is shifting when people use electricity, which has some consequences for renewables.)

Manufacturing, construction, and other types of industry account for approximately 20 percent of CO2 emissions. Certain industrial processes like steel production and aluminum smelting use huge amounts of fossil fuels — and so far, Schmidt says, that type of production has mostly continued despite the pandemic.

The reality is that emissions need to be cut by 7.6 percent every year to keep global warming from surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels — the threshold associated with the most dangerous climate threats — according to an analysis by the United Nations Environment Program. Even if the global lockdown and economic slump reduce emissions by 7.6 percent this year, emissions would have to fall even more the year after that. And the year after that. And so on.

In the middle of the pandemic, it’s become common to point to clear skies in Los Angeles and the cleaner waters of Venice as evidence that people can make a difference on climate change. “The newly iconic photos of a crystal-clear Los Angeles skyline without its usual shroud of smog are unwanted but compelling evidence of what can happen when individuals stop driving vehicles that pollute the air,” wrote Michael Grunwald in POLITICO magazine.

But these arguments conflate air and water pollution — crucial environmental issues in their own right! — with CO2 emissions. Carbon dioxide is invisible, and power plants and oil refineries are still pumping it into the atmosphere. Meanwhile, natural gas companies and livestock farming (think cow burps) keep releasing methane.

“I think people should bike instead of driving, and they should take the train instead of flying,” said Schmidt. “But those are small, compared to the really big structural things that haven’t changed.”

It’s worth remembering that a dip in carbon emissions won’t lead to any changes in the Earth’s warming trend. Some scientists compare carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to water flowing into a leaky bathtub. The lockdown has turned the tap down, not off. Until we cut emissions to net-zero — so that emissions flowing into the atmosphere are equivalent to those flowing out — the Earth will continue warming.

That helps explain why 2020 is already on track to be the warmest ever recorded, beating out 2016. In a sad irony, the decrease in air pollution may make it even hotter. Veerabhadran Ramanathan, a professor at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at University of California, San Diego, explained that many polluting particles have a “masking” effect on global warming, reflecting the sun’s rays, canceling out some of the warming from greenhouse gas emissions. With that shield of pollution gone, Ramanathan said, “We could see an increase in warming.”

Appreciate the bluer skies and fresher air, while you can. But the emissions drop from the pandemic should be a warning, not a cause for celebration: a sign of how much further there is to go.


Update: As of April 30, the International Energy Agency estimates that carbon emissions will fall by 8 percent this year. The IEA drew on more data than an earlier CarbonBrief analysis which estimated a drop of 5.5 percent.

Coming soon? Less Invasive Do-It-Yourself Cheek Swab for Coronavirus

Do-It-Yourself Cheek Swab Tested As Next Best Thing To Detect Coronavirus

 

Long Beach lifeguard Jeremy Rocha gives out a COVID-19 test kit at a drive-thru testing site at Long Beach’s Jordan High School on April 18. It’s one of 21 sites in Southern California where people can provide a sample by swishing a cotton swab around their mouths, putting it in a tube and dropping it in a receptacle on their way out — all within the comfort of their cars. (Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)
Kaiser Health News, By David Tuller, May 1, 2020 – (Also appeared on May 1 in the Vallejo Times-Herald)

Coronavirus testing is commonly an unpleasant, even painful experience in which a health care provider pushes a torturously long swab up your nostril….

Since late March, three Southern California jurisdictions ― Los Angeles County, and the cities of L.A. and Long Beach ― have offered a more palatable alternative to this nasopharyngeal sampling, whose very name poses a challenge. At 21 drive-thru sites, anyone can now provide a sample by swishing a cotton swab around their mouths, putting it in a tube and dropping it in a receptacle on their way out — all within the comfort of their cars. Some experts suggest this self-sampling approach may provide an easier way to ramp up massive testing in the U.S.

“I strongly advocate for the oral self-swab,” said Dr. Clayton Kazan, medical director for the L.A. County Fire Department, which is overseeing the county’s drive-thru testing program. “It may or may not be inferior, depending on the study you read, but, logistically, there is no comparison.”

But many public health officials balk at relying on the simpler tests unless scientific data convincingly shows they work as well as the accepted methods.

“I have real concerns about decisions that are made based on studies that have not been peer-reviewed,” said Dr. Richard Besser, CEO of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and former acting head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“In the middle of this pandemic, we don’t want to compromise, especially if people are going to use that information to decide if they’re going to follow social distancing,” said Dr. Adam Jarrett, chief medical officer at Holy Name Medical Center in Teaneck, New Jersey.

Nasopharyngeal samples have long been standard for diagnosing influenza and other respiratory infections because the pathogens are known to colonize the upper part of the throat behind the nose. In contrast, the simpler method being used in L.A. County — in which patients are asked to cough and then swab their cheeks and the back of their mouths — is based on a limited body of emerging research.

The CDC currently calls nasopharyngeal swabs the “preferred choice” for coronavirus testing. It doesn’t recommend self-collected oral fluids, and the number of jurisdictions pursuing this strategy remains limited.

In early April, Middlesex County, New Jersey, also began to offer symptomatic individuals drive-thru tests using oral samples produced after a cough. On Monday, officials in New York City said they planned to begin offering testing using self-collected oral and nasal samples at public hospitals.

Scientists and public health experts have promoted increased viral testing and surveillance as key to any strategy for safely loosening societal restrictions — and the need to collect nasopharyngeal samples by professionals dressed in protective gear represents a major obstacle. That’s why interest is rising in the use of oral samples as well as nasal swabs that can be self-administered, said Lisa Barcellos, an epidemiologist at the University of California-Berkeley.

“It’s impossible to scale up anything that requires health professionals to do it, and with equipment that’s hard to get,” Barcellos said. The surge in demand for the specialized 6-inch swabs required for the nasopharyngeal procedure has led to critical shortages, she added.

The L.A. County, Los Angeles and Long Beach drive-thru sites — designed for people experiencing symptoms — collectively process about 7,000 oral swab tests a day, with a positive rate of just over 7%, according to Curative, the diagnostics company that provides the tests. Curative is holding discussions with jurisdictions in other areas and last week announced an agreement to test Air Force personnel.

Kazan acknowledged that nasopharyngeal sampling is considered the most trustworthy method but noted recent studies have reported promising results from oral samples. Moreover, he said, relying on self-administered techniques eliminates the danger to health care personnel and minimizes the need for personal protective equipment in short supply, like masks, face shields and protective suits.

Kazan said people who receive the tests are relieved to find that collecting secretions from their mouths is relatively quick and easy.

“I think that a lot of folks envision what they saw on YouTube, people in PPE that look like astronauts putting swabs way up people’s noses,” he said.

But to be useful, diagnostic tests must be accurate. A “false negative,” in which the test fails to detect the coronavirus, could lead someone who is infected to think they are safe and pose no danger to others.

Since the pandemic began, a growing body of research — some of which has not yet undergone peer review — has compared how accurately different sampling techniques detect the virus. “Everybody’s looking for better ways to do this,” said Barcellos, who is involved in a major study of the prevalence of coronavirus infection in the East Bay region.

Both oral and nasal samples can be obtained in more and less invasive ways. Oropharyngeal swabs require the instrument to be inserted down the throat; like nasopharyngeal swabs, they are supposed to be performed by a trained provider because the procedure can be uncomfortable and tends to produce a gag reflex.

And swabs of secretions gathered from just inside the nostril can be self-administered, unlike the nasopharyngeal swabs. A Seattle study of hundreds of coronavirus patients found that self-collected samples were almost as accurate as nasopharyngeal swabs in identifying viral infections. In March, Seattle public health agencies launched a home-testing surveillance project using the nasal self-swab, with local residents registering online.

On April 21, the Food and Drug Administration awarded its first authorization for a nasal self-swab home test, made by LabCorp. The agency had previously issued warnings to consumers about “fraudulent” coronavirus home test kits being marketed online.

The emerging research has also investigated oral fluid tests, like those being conducted in L.A. County, with subjects generally required to cough in order to bring up virus-rich saliva before they swab their mouth or spit into a container. A non-peer-reviewed study of 65 patients in China reported that the detection rate of the novel coronavirus was higher in saliva than in other respiratory samples. Other studies have found that oral fluid tests aren’t as accurate when people are not reminded to cough beforehand.

Carey-Ann Burnham, medical director of microbiology at Barnes-Jewish Hospital in St. Louis, said the early research on oral fluids looks “remarkably promising.”

But “a nasopharyngeal swab is a standardized sampling technique that’s been done for decades,” said Burnham, who is also a professor of immunology and pathology at Washington University School of Medicine. “Saliva, oral secretions — that’s not a standard way we’ve looked for respiratory viruses, and right now everyone’s doing it a little bit differently.”

That makes it harder to compare studies and results, she said.

The FDA’s authorization for the Curative test recommends that the self-collection process be “observed by a trained healthcare worker.” Kazan, the fire department medical director, said that trained staffers observe the oral self-swabbing. While acknowledging the limitations of the early data, Kazan insists that the needs of the moment are paramount.

“This is the space between smart people reading medical literature and those of us who are tasked with operationalizing these recommendations,” he said.


This KHN story first published on California Healthline, a service of the California Health Care Foundation. This story also ran on KPCC. This story can be republished for free (details).
 

COVID-19 outbreak in Vallejo nursing home – 34 residents infected

Windsor Vallejo Nursing and Rehabilitation Center reports 34 residents infected with COVID-19

Vallejo Times-Herald, by John Glidden, May 1, 2020
Windsor Vallejo Nursing and Rehabilitation Center in Vallejo has reported 34 residents have been infected with COVID-19. (Chris Riley—Times-Herald)

Days after Windsor Vallejo Nursing and Rehabilitation Center reported 18 residents had been infected with COVID-19, that number jumped to 34, according to the California Department of Health.

The data, which is current as of Thursday, also showed that less than 11 healthcare workers at the facility have tested positive with coronavirus.

Recent attempts to reach the facility and Josh Sable, general counsel for Windsor Healthcare, for comment have been unsuccessful.

“We continue to work closely with the Windsor facility around this incident. An outbreak at a Skilled Nursing Facility is a high priority to Solano Public Health and we are responding in such a matter,” said Solano County Public Health Administrator Jayleen Richards on Friday.

Officials previous told the Times-Herald that they learned about the infections on April 24. At that time, 12 residents had tested positive. That’s when county health began testing of residents and health care workers at the facility.

They also said earlier in the week that four health care workers were infected.

Questions remain on how so many were infected while the eight other facilities in Solano County have reported zero COVID-19 related infections for their residents and health care workers.

The city of Vallejo continues to lead the county in the number of COVID-19 infections with 125, the Solano County Public Health reported on Friday.

Fairfield has 60, while the city of Vacaville has reported 35 coronavirus cases, the same data shows.

Covid-19 – Vallejo schools ease up on grading, Benicia stays tough but will discuss

[Editor: The Benicia School District’s May 7 meeting will take up the hot topic of grading policies under distance learning.  In this updated version of the Times-Herald story, Benicia Superintendent Charles Young goes on record defending Benicia’s grading policy.  For context, read below about other Bay Area school districts, and check out the California Dept of Education’s Coronavirus Guidance on Grades and Graduation.  – R.S.]

Coronavirus: Vallejo School District changes grading policies, but Benicia stays the same

Vallejo Times Herald, by Thomas Gase, May 1, 2020

With the coronavirus outbreak changing education with distance learning, many school districts have made changes to their grading policies for the spring semester.

The Vallejo Unified School District announced last month that third-quarter grades will be used for final grades, unless those grades go up during the final semester. This is the same for Fairfield and West Contra Costa County, while the Dixon Board of Supervisors announced they adopted a pass/no pass policy.

Other counties going to a pass/no pass or credit/no credit policy include Napa, Santa Clara, Sonoma and San Mateo. The San Francisco Board of Supervisors adopted a credit/no credit policy (after initially adopting a policy that would have given all students “A’s.”

However, while many school districts have switched things up, Benicia Unified has yet to make any changes to its grading policy,  although there is an item on May 7 board meeting that mentions a report from Dr. Leslie Beatson on the next steps of distance learning.  One of the components of that presentation and discussion will be an update on the grading being implemented in Benicia Unified School District, according to an email from BUSD President Diane Ferrucci.

“Thursday’s board meeting will include an update from our Education Services Department on the distance learning plan to date, a standing agenda item as long as we are engaged in this model, and will also include an update on student feedback, engagement and grading,” Benicia Unified School District Superintendent Dr. Charles Young told the Times-Herald. “We have evidence illustrating that our model is working on behalf of the vast majority of our students and is helping to keep levels of student engagement high as we all navigate this new model together.”

Leann Taagepera, a parent of a senior student at Benicia High, was not happy with BUSD not making changes to its grading policy and sent out an email to Ferrucci requesting that the topic of the grading policy be an action item” on the board’s agenda, instead of a discussion only item.

“School boards across the state and nation are voting on the grading policies revised per the CDE’s suggestions during this school closure time period,” Taagepera said. “The school board and the public should be afforded meaningful input into the grading plan, not merely be told by staff what staff is proceeding with.”

Taagepera also requested Benicia High provide a survey to high school students and parents to solicit their opinions about what should compose the district’s grading policy during distance learning and that the survey include the state’s guidance on grading during the distance learning time period.

In an email to the Benicia School Board, Taagepera wrote, “All of the (school districts) are either adopting a credit/no credit or pass/no pass system or a system that states that the spring semester grades will not fall below what they were in the first quarter when schools closed, or a combination of both. Again, BUSD is the one district I have located that is not modifying its grading policy during this terrible time of upheaval in the lives of our students, parents, and teachers.”

Young said there are reasons they haven’t made a change to a pass/no pass policy as of yet.

“We stayed with the use of grades at the secondary level as it is a feedback system of which students, staff and parents are imminently familiar,” Young said. “We are aware of at least one district that decided to use credit/no credit is now getting petitions from parents to return to regular grades. This work is complicated and we know there is no perfect system. We are focused on the needs of our students and we will continue to reflect on our process as we go forward, not only with distance learning, but with all we do on behalf of our students.”

Young went on to praise Benicia teachers and faculty with their work in distance learning.

“Our teachers and all staff have been just amazing,” Young said. “We were among the first to implement the distance learning model (many school districts had upwards of three weeks of no instruction as they transitioned to distance learning), a formidable task for sure, but we were providing instruction on day one. We quickly distributed Chromebooks to students in need (the high school was already one-to-one); we identified essential standards by grade level and course offering. Our partnership with the Benicia Teachers Union has never been stronger and their level of professionalism continues to not only be admirable but is a model for other districts.”