The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent research center at the University of Washington, has released COVID-19 projections for all 50 states and for nations around the world.
The models predict “extent and timing of deaths and excess demand for hospital services due to COVID-19,” the institute says.
The model for California, as of April 7, predicted that COVID-19 deaths per day would peak on April 17. Projections assume “full social distancing” through May.
The pulldown box at the top of the graphic allows selection of other states and nations.
Positive coronavirus figures in Solano County are expected to rise but there’s no cause for alarm, as the numbers merely reflect an increase in testing.
Dr. Bela Matyas, Solano County Health
So explained Dr. Bela Matyas with Solano Public Health Tuesday as he addressed the county’s Board of Supervisors.
In his update, Matyas talked about recently-released data that shows a breakdown of coronavirus cases by city. Those with 10 or more show exact figures, those with less do not. As of Tuesday, two related deaths have been reported.
“The coronavirus continues to spread but the impact on our hospitals have so far been substantial but not overwhelming,” he advised, adding that there are “lots of ICU beds, lots of ventilators.”
The stay at home order issued in March appears to be working, he continued, but more must be done.
“We have to stay the course if we want this approach to work. We have to do this for as long as necessary,” he said. “The most critical of all this is protecting the most vulnerable.”
The latter has been defined as the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions.
Matyas guesstimated the virus peaking around late April to mid May.
Though the worst is expected to be over at that time, risks will remain and the virus will still exist.
“It may be substantially longer before we can consider us through the outbreak and see it behind us,” he clarified.
Drive-through coronavirus testing is expected to begin today at the Solano County Fairgrounds in Vallejo. First responders and healthcare workers only will be eligible for the test. Any remaining kits will be made available at a later date to other essential workers.
In other matters, an emergency grant from the state slated to go towards aiding homeless clients regarding COVID-19 prevention and containment efforts caused tension amongst the board.
At issue was the COVID-19 Emergency Homeless grant award agreement, which offered $206,370 from the California Homeless Coordinating and Financing Council.
The board needed to approve receipt of the funding, which would then “be provided as a non-county contribution to Community Action Partnership (CAP) Solano Joint Powers Authority,” slated to coordinate emergency COVID-19 efforts (a 4/5 vote required). The board’s approval would also authorize the county administrator to execute the agreement and subsequent agreements/amendments with the grantor to facilitate acceptance of the award.
Supervisor Skip Thomson adamantly refused to support the funding being placed in the hands of CAP Solano.
“I don’t think they’ve done a good job, to be honest,” he said, adding that the money could be better spent on four portable wash/restroom stations at a cost of about $50,000 each.
It would address hygiene issues, he said, pointing out that, with restroom facilities at fast food eateries, coffee shops, parks and more now closed, homeless residents have made bushes their new lavatories. That, he said, will soon become a public health crisis.
The mobile units could be deployed to Vallejo, Fairfield, Vacaville and other locales on a rotating basis, Thomson said, and also be used in conjunction with the Office of Emergency Services in the case of a natural disaster or other emergency.
Supervisor Jim Spering said he needed more information before supporting the mobile stations, but agreed with Thomson regarding CAP Solano. What assurances are there that the money will be spent where it’s supposed to be, he asked.
Chairwoman Erin Hannigan said a delayed decision regarding the funding could hurt the homeless now, as help is needed now.
Following much discussion, a motion to go forward with Thomson’s mobile wash station failed 2-3, with Hannigan, Spering and John Vasques dissenting.
The original motion also failed, 1-4, with Monica Brown, Spering, Vasquez and Thomson all dissenting.
A third and final motion to, among other things, accept the agreement regarding the funding, have staff return with more information regarding the mobile wash stations and hold an emergency board meeting Tuesday passed unanimously.
Solano County Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Updates and Resources, April 1, 2020. Check out basic information in this screenshot. IMPORTANT:Note the County’s interactive page has more. On the County website, you can click on “Number of cases” and then hover over the charts for detailed information.
Last report (Monday, April 6):
Summary:
Solano County reported 11 NEW POSITIVE CASES today – total is now 99. One new deaths in Solano County – total of 2.
As of today, 1 new non-severe positive case was a young person under 19 years of age; 73 of the cases were individuals between the ages of 19 and 64, and 25 were 65 were older. The new death was among the 19-64 year age group.
Only 33 of the 99 are active cases (2 fewer than yesterday), and 27 of the total cases have resulted in hospitalizations (3 more than previously reported).
CITY DATA: Vallejo added 5 cases, total of 33; Fairfield added 2 cases, total of 28; and Vacaville added 3 cases, total of 17. Smaller cities are not assigned numerical data: all show <10 (less than 10). NOTE that 1 new case must have come from one of our four smaller cities or unincorporated areas, all showing <10. Residents and city officials have been pressuring County officials for city case counts for the past two weeks. Today’s data is welcome, but incomplete.
TESTING seems to be minimal in Solano County and most recently somewhat on the decline.
Most recent (updated) numbers for specimens collected are:
1 on Sunday, April 5
5 on Saturday, April 4
6 on Friday, April 3
7 on Thursday, April 2.
Solano’s steep upward curve
The chart above gives a clear picture of the infection’s trajectory in Solano County. Our coronavirus curve is on a steep uphill climb!
Over the last two weeks, a group of Benicians has been sewing and delivering masks for healthcare workers who serve on the front line fighting the coronavirus pandemic here in the Bay Area.
In an email today, Bodil Fox reported, “To date, we have distributed 1,234 masks date from 37 mask makers to 22 medical facilities.”
Those numbers are supplemented by some who are delivering masks directly to healthcare workers who are family or friends.
On April 1, Larnie Fox wrote that the group had 50+ members on the mask project email list. One of the group’s biggest contributors is Ruby Wallis, who has been sewing large quantities of masks.
The mask project is nicely described in an April 1 Benicia Herald article by editor Galen Kusic…
Benicia residents spearhead effort to make masks for health care workers
Nurses at Kaiser Vallejo wear masks provided by the mask making project spearheaded by Benicia residents Bodil and Larnie Fox. 460 masks have been distributed by 25 mask makers as of March 31.
Galen Kusic, Editor
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to engulf the world, U.S. and Calif., people are getting creative to protect health care workers and flatten the curve. As of press time Tue., there were at least 183,532 cases across 50 states and more than 3,600 deaths attributed to the respiratory illness. In Calif. alone, the state announced 6,932 cases with 150 deaths.
Locally in Benicia, Bodil and her husband Larnie Fox have displayed ingenuity through artistic creativity and networking by making hand-sewn masks to help health care workers.
The project started when Bodil met her neighbor, Marcella Spurgeon, a nurse at Kaiser Vallejo, on a walk on March 20. Marcella told her how she and other nurses were working without any sort of protection. Bodil (a textile artist) wondered if hand-sewn masks would help, and Marcella’s response was an enthusiastic, “YES!”
Alta Bates doctors show off their functional and stylish masks.
Bodil started sewing masks, and soon heard that her friend Ruby Wallis was “making masks, full tilt.” Ruby had designed a simple, easily-made mask that was big enough to cover an N95, thus extending its life. Bodil and Larnie made a video explaining Ruby’s technique: youtu.be/Uyh6iAKqrao, which has over 2,000 views on Facebook and Youtube.
The emails, texts, social media posts and phone calls exploded after Councilmember Steve Young posted information about the project on Facebook. Seeing that Bodil was swamped, Larnie began helping her with the project full time.
“We are fielding requests for hundreds of masks at this point,” said Larnie.
Alta Bates midwife Lior Mayer wears a hand-sewn mask made by Bodil and Larnie Fox’s mask maker group.
As of March 31, there have been 460 hand-sewn masks made with 25 mask makers working. They are being distributed to Benicia nurses working at Kaiser Vallejo, Oakland Children’s Hospital, Alta Bates Berkeley, Kaiser San Rafael and to several other health care centers.
“I have brought in masks for Labor and Delivery and the nurses and docs are so appreciative!” said Alta Bates midwife Lior Mayer. “It is so heartwarming, and very useful. Everyone loves knowing they are extending the lives of the ONE mask we are given per shift, and also appearing more friendly to our patients with these beautiful fabric masks on. Everyone sends a big thank you!”
The masks are washed and sterilized before using. The mask makers are very aware of the fact that these masks do not replace real PPE (personal protective equipment), but as nurses are saying, they are better than nothing.
“We are going the unofficial route – getting them to nurses that work at these facilities who distribute them to their co-workers,” said Larnie. “They report that the people who get them are really grateful, and our homemade masks are most definitely being used and may be saving lives.”
Nurses at Alta Bates use hand-sewn masks to help with the current N-95 mask shortages.
The project is seeking donations of 100 percent cotton fabric, at least 11×16 inches, 1/4 inch elastic, rubbing alcohol for sterilizing masks and supplies and people who have sewing machines and can sew. They encourage any frontline workers who need masks to let the project know. If you live nearby and would like to help by sewing, donating materials or identifying needs, please contact the project at bodilfox@gmail.com.
For those that do not have this capability, people are urged to find somehow or someway to help health care workers or those in need during the crisis.
“The need is real,” said Larnie. “We know these masks are not ideal, but they are much better than the nothing that is currently available.”
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