Category Archives: Covid 19

Many who have received the coronavirus vaccine wonder: What can I safely do?

The vaccinated ponder how to live their lives and, in a role reversal, are trying to protect their children

After being vaccinated, Marc Wilson, 70, a retired accountant in Norman, Okla., plans to go back to some activities but not others.
After being vaccinated, Marc Wilson, 70, a retired accountant in Norman, Okla., plans to go back to some activities but not others. (Nick Oxford/For The Washington Post)

Soon after Marc Wilson gets his second dose of coronavirus vaccine, he plans to resume one of his pre-pandemic joys: swimming laps with his friends. But most other activities — including volunteering at a food pantry and homeless shelter — will be off-limits until the outbreak is curbed and scientists know more about the threat of emerging variants.

“I can definitely broaden the things I do, but I still have to be quite cautious,” said Wilson, 70, a retired accountant in Norman, Okla., who has diabetes and other health problems. “When your doctor tells you, ‘If you get covid, you’re dead,’ that gets your attention real good.”

The arrival of coronavirus vaccines is beginning to have an impact on everyday life, with millions of newly inoculated Americans eagerly anticipating a return to long-postponed activities and visits with sorely missed relatives and friends. But with Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease expert, warning that vaccinations are not a “pass,” the recently inoculated are engaged in a new round of complicated risk-benefit assessments. What can I safely do? Where can I go? And how do I interact with people who are not vaccinated?

The answers aren’t simple. In the meantime, the asymmetric nature of the rollout — with many older Americans and health-care workers receiving shots first, while tens of millions of others await their turns — is shifting relationships in families and in society more broadly. Grandparents who once hunkered down at home, most vulnerable to a virus that preys on the elderly, are likely to be better protected than younger relatives who are waiting to be vaccinated.

Experts agree broadly on many issues people have questions about. But they differ on details and lack some important information. They still don’t know, for example, whether people who are vaccinated can get asymptomatic infections and pass them on to those who are not inoculated — which is why they urge people to continue to wear masks and practice social distancing even after receiving their shots. Scientists also are racing to determine how much protection vaccines offer against the highly transmissible variants popping up in the United States.

The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are about 95 percent effective against the original version of the virus and highly effective against a variant first found in Britain. New data show vaccines by Novavax and Johnson & Johnson also provide robust protection. But, based on early data, the vaccines appear less potent against a variant that was first identified in South Africa and has been found in the United States.

One thing is clear: Reports of mutated coronaviruses are fueling anxiety and confusion in a populace already worn out by conflicting advice on a pandemic that has been raging for nearly a year in the United States.

People wait in line for the coronavirus vaccine in Paterson, N.J., on Jan. 21. The first people arrived around 2:30 a.m. at one of the few sites that does not require an appointment.

People wait in line for the coronavirus vaccine in Paterson, N.J., on Jan. 21. The first people arrived around 2:30 a.m. at one of the few sites that does not require an appointment. (Seth Wenig/AP)

“It’s brutally hard,” said Robert Wachter, chief of the medicine department at the University of California at San Francisco. “For the past year, we have had our game plan for living and now we have these curveballs — the increased prevalence of the virus, the variants and the vaccines. We have all had to learn to be armchair epidemiologists and now we have these new realities.”

Wachter, 64, who recently got his second shot, said he feels comfortable doing a few things he did not do before being vaccinated, such as going to the dentist and having his hair cut professionally, rather than by his wife, who has not been vaccinated. But he is careful to avoid doing anything that could increase her risk.

He does not plan to dine indoors with people outside his household, even if they are vaccinated, until the coronavirus is much less prevalent and not able to circulate freely. Earlier in the pandemic, experts thought such herd immunity could be achieved after 70 to 75 percent of people were vaccinated or had developed natural immunity from previous coronavirus infections. But the level of coverage may need to be even higher — 80 to 85 percent — if a more transmissible strain becomes dominant, a top official at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday. That could delay herd immunity until the fall or later, scientists say.

Wachter and several older Americans who were recently vaccinated told The Washington Post they consider themselves fortunate to have gotten the shots and realize navigating the uncertainties of a post-vaccine life is a good problem to have. Many are being conservative — birthday parties in crowded bars are not on their agendas — and using their new status to help others who remain unprotected, including adult children who previously had been anxious about their parents’ vulnerability.

For months, Jan Solomon, 69, has been doing the grocery shopping so her 72-year-old husband does not have to go to the store. Now she and her husband, both of whom are getting vaccinated, are focusing on their 35-year-old son, who is temporarily living at their home in Washington and unlikely to be inoculated for months.

“We will definitely still wear masks, not go into restaurants and keep our distance” from others, she said. “We need to protect our son and don’t want to be carriers.”

Many public health experts say while vaccinated people can enjoy a bit more freedom — flying while masked, for example, is far less of a risk after inoculation — behavior should not change much. Besides the concern that inoculated people might serve as carriers of the virus, they note a small number might still get covid-19 while the virus is circulating so widely, although the chances of hospitalization or death are low.

Melanie Swift, co-director of the Mayo Clinic’s vaccination-distribution program, said she would not fly for pleasure, only for work. Given the high level of virus in much of the United States, geriatrician June McKoy of Northwestern Medicine said even people who are vaccinated need to be careful when visiting inoculated elderly relatives, and should wear masks and sanitize their hands.

“The vaccine is not a get-out-of-jail-free card,” she said.

Robert Califf, 69, a cardiologist and Food and Drug Administration commissioner during the Obama administration, agreed people need to take precautions after being vaccinated. But he cautioned doctors against being overly rigid in their prescriptions for post-vaccine life. “People won’t believe you,” he said.

A few weeks after he and his wife get two doses of vaccine, they plan to fly from North Carolina to Colorado to see both sets of grandchildren and will use “testing, masking and modified social distancing” during the trip to keep risks low.

Some doctors say public health experts should emphasize the upside of vaccines and not dwell on what people can’t do after being inoculated. “Doom-and-gloom messaging” is not an effective way to encourage people to get the shots, said Monica Gandhi, an infectious-disease specialist at UCSF. “You have to message hope and optimism.”

She said she doesn’t see a problem with two couples who are vaccinated having dinner indoors together — something Swift and some other doctors advised against until the pandemic is curtailed.

Gandhi said her parents, who are in their 80s, plan to fly to California to visit her after they are vaccinated and then go on to Boston to see her sister and brother. “It’s the only thing they can talk about,” she said, adding, “We need to recognize plain old loneliness. To think it isn’t real belies the very process of evolution that led primates to gather together in groups. It is actually what makes us human.”

She also doubts that people who have received both doses of the vaccines will be able to transmit much of the virus, and points to data from Moderna that showed a sharp drop in transmission after the first dose. Many other scientists say she may be right but that more data is needed.

As the debates among experts continue, many older people who are being vaccinated welcome the possibility of returning to favorite pastimes, hugging a loved one and taking better care of themselves.

Barry MacKichan, a 76-year-old software developer in Hillsborough, N.C., is eager to resume photographing wildlife from somewhere other than his backyard. He also hopes his daughter and three grandchildren, who live in New Zealand, will be able to visit him this summer, an annual tradition disrupted by the pandemic. That may not be until July, after the children are vaccinated.

In the meantime, MacKichan and his wife plan to continue to wear masks “in moral support for everyone else who has to.”

Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Georgetown University’s Center for Global Health Science and Security, welcomes that attitude. She is worried that unless people who are vaccinated continue to wear masks, the United States could become a two-tiered society in which people who are inoculated say, “I can do what I want.” She added: “It causes a social hierarchy based on immune status, and that is bad news.”

Erin Fusco, 45, a nurse and assistant professor at Quinnipiac University in Connecticut, will soon receive her second dose of vaccine. Fucso has gone back to the gym she missed badly and uses the treadmill and weights. And she has scheduled a mammogram and a colonoscopy she postponed last year.

But as for other pre-pandemic behaviors, she said: “I’m waiting for someone to tell us that it’s safe.” She said she wants politicians including New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D), Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont (D) or President Biden to authorize a return to normalcy.

President Biden visits a covid-19 vaccination site at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. (Shawn Thew/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

President Biden visits a covid-19 vaccination site at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. (Shawn Thew/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

Katie Clapp, 56, is more expansive about her post-inoculation plans. After she gets her second dose, she plans to restart horseback riding lessons for children at the stable she runs in Stillwater, Minn., to go out to dinner with friends and to visit a new grandchild in Malibu, Calif.

“I’m so excited,” said Clapp, who got vaccinated at a Minneapolis clinic that had extra doses.

But she has become a bit more cautious as virus variants emerge. “If variants make the vaccines less than 95 percent effective, what does that mean?” she said. “Ninety-five percent to what percent?”

The answer to that question and others, experts hope, will come in the next several months, as vaccine makers and the government scrutinize the effect of the vaccines on the variants.

Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told NPR the government and industry are trying to stay “a step or two ahead” of the variants and the manufacturers are coming up with new versions of their vaccines “just in case” they are needed.

In the meantime, he said, he continues to wear a mask and take other precautions even though he has been vaccinated.


Read more:

Benicia COVID-19 Vaccine Clinic Now Full (As of late Saturday 1/30)

IMPORTANT UPDATE: This Tuesday is full, but you can sign up for a future clinic…

Overwhelming demand…

City of Benicia on NextDoor, Communications, Office of Economic Development Teri Davena, January 30, 2021 around 9pm

COVID-19 Vaccine Clinic Now Full.  Due to overwhelming demand, the schedule of for the Benicia COVID-19 Vaccine Clinic for Seniors on Tuesday, February 2, is now full.

Solano Public Health is working daily to schedule additional vaccine events.  If you would like to add your name to an interest list to be notified of upcoming local vaccination clinics, go to www.tinyurl.com/beniciavaccine.


For future Benicia announcements on COVID-19, see “UPDATES” (in the left hand column) at https://www.ci.benicia.ca.us/coronavirus

Benicia Author Stephen Golub – Get the Whole World Vaccinated!

A Promised Land: Go Global

To fight Covid, there’s no alternative.

“Vaccine Nationalism”

Benicia Author Stephen Golub, A Promised Land

As vaccinations bring the first flicker of light at the end of the Covid tunnel, the emergence of more transmissible and somewhat vaccine-resistant variants seem to stand in the way.

But there’s a path forward. In fact, as a matter of both principle and self-preservation, it’s the only path: Go global. Get the whole world vaccinated much more quickly than currently planned.

Going global is vital because, as explained in a recent Washington Post article, “A [coronavirus] mutation in any location [on the planet] will likely spread everywhere.” Inoculations in America will buy valuable time. But until we control Covid via worldwide vaccinations, we may have to keep striving to stay one step ahead of such mutations.

Drawing in part on a fine Foreign Affairs article decrying “vaccine nationalism,” a Fareed Zakaria  op-ed accordingly makes a case for a massive international effort to inoculate the entire world as soon as possible. Among his primary points:

“[O]ur current trajectory [which features a much faster vaccine roll-out for richer nations than the rest of the world] virtually guarantees that we will never really defeat the coronavirus. It will stay alive and keep mutating and surging across the globe.”

“The basic problem is in how the vaccine is being distributed around the world — not based on where there is the most need, but the most money…Rich countries make up 16 percent of the world’s population, yet they have locked up 60 percent of the world’s vaccine supply.”

“Duke University researchers say [that at the currently planned vaccination rate] many developing countries will not be fully vaccinated until 2024, which means the virus will have years to spread and mutate. In their annual letter, Bill and Melinda Gates note that low- and middle-income countries will be able to vaccinate only 1 out of every 5 people by the end of 2021.”

“The International Chamber of Commerce has released a study showing that this lopsided vaccination of the world will cause global economic losses of $1.5 trillion to $9.2 trillion, of which half could be borne by the richest countries…Another study estimates that for every dollar rich countries invest in vaccines for the developing world, they would get back about $5 in economic output.”

“Bollyky and Bown lay out an excellent plan in Foreign Affairs. They argue that the United States should use the lessons from Operation Warp Speed to ramp up production and distribution of the vaccine worldwide…There is now a global vaccination effort to help developing countries, COVAX, which provides a powerful framework for action. President Donald Trump refused to join this effort [surprise, surprise] despite the participation of over 180 nations, but President Biden has reversed that decision.”

Ramping Up

Biden can and probably will do more. The question is whether he, other world leaders and pharmaceutical firms will commit to doing much, much more, by bolstering vaccine production and distribution to inoculate the entire planet well before 2024.

A key step would be to persuade or compel such firms to convert existing facilities into plants that manufacture Covid vaccines or other supplies crucial to the inoculation efforts. There’s already a precedent for this: A French firm, Sanofi, is making a Frankfurt pharmaceutical plant available to increase production of Pfizer’s vaccine.

Where persuasion or shared profit-making prove insufficient incentives for drug makers to boost production via factory conversion, Biden could invoke the Defense Production Act to force them to do so. His staff was reportedly considering that option during the transition period and is continuing those deliberations now.

Neither Gleeful Nor Glum

Word of the potentially more dangerous South African variant, and of other new strains, might make us wonder whether we can get a handle on the pandemic’s spread in America, much less the rest of the world. This is indeed cause for concern, putting us in a “race to vaccinate” in order to limit the spreads of such strains. The recent decisions of California and other states to start opening up again could prove premature, to put it mildly.

But there’s good news. With research findings indicating the Johnson & Johnson vaccine protects against Covid – albeit not quite as well as the Pfizer and Moderna drugs or as well against the South African variant as it does against other strains – the potential for ramped-up supplies to reach all of the world just became much more realizable.

For one thing, unlike those other two companies’ products, the J&J vaccine requires only one dose. It also differs in that it need not  be stored at ultra-low temperatures, a crucial consideration for much of the world. Finally, even at lesser overall efficacy, it still seems very effective at preventing severe illness and extremely effective at preventing death.

There are yet more reasons to be, if not gleeful, then not entirely glum regarding prospects for protecting both America and the world. More vaccines are already available to various degrees abroad, or are on the way. And the technology utilized for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is such that they can be adapted to fight virus variants in about six weeks (though regulatory and manufacturing hurdles can add time to their becoming widely available).

To be clear, ongoing vigilance and extra precautions against the new variants are well warranted. More people, perhaps many more, may die because of those mutations. My main point here is that we should not give up on helping the rest of the world, regardless of what happens here in coming months. In fact, a turn for the worse here is all the more reason to go global.

Principle and Self-preservation

A  case for aiding the entire human race does not only boil down to humanitarian principle – though saving millions of lives sounds pretty persuasive to me. Since Covid could remain a looming threat here as long as it surges elsewhere, self-interest and self-preservation might be the better selling points for those Americans (and other nationalities) who insist that “charity begins at home.” (That’s why, regarding another global challenge, Biden often frames fighting climate change in terms of jobs.)

Regardless, the battle against Covid demonstrates that we can’t hide behind the “America First” wall that fortunately lost out in November but still haunts this land. It’s not just Covid and our health, as crucial as they are. To a good degree, our economy, environment and security hinge on how the rest of the world is doing.

As Bill and Melinda Gates put it, “[L]ike it or not, we’re all in this together.”


Stephen Golub, Benicia – A Promised Land: Politics. Policy. America as a Developing Country.


Benicia resident Stephen Golub
 offers excellent perspective on his blog, A Promised Land: Politics. Policy. America as a Developing Country.
To access his other posts or subscribe, please go to his blog site, A Promised Land.

Coronavirus still spreading in Solano County – 220 new cases overnight


By Roger Straw, January 29, 2021

New case totals for the month of January and daily averages BY CITY (below).
Get vaccinated!  Otherwise, stay home whenever possible – this is not over!

Friday, January 29: 220 new Solano cases overnight, and again, no new deaths.  Since Feb: 27,706 cases, over 820 hospitalized, 122 deaths.Compare previous report, Thursday, Jan. 28:Summary

[From Solano County Public Health and others, see sources below.  For a running archive of daily County updates, see my Excel ARCHIVE
    • Solano County reported 220 new cases overnight, total of 27,706 cases since the outbreak started.  In the first 29 days of January, Solano has added 8,495 new cases, for an AVERAGE of 293 new cases per day.
    • Deaths – for the first time since January 15, the County reported no new deaths; a total of 122 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.  There have been 17 COVID-related deaths in Solano County over the last 10 days, two individuals aged 18-49 years, 15 others over 65 years of age.  While many other COVID stats are improving, the recent surge in deaths is the final sad result of our holiday surge.
    • Active cases – Solano reported 53 more active cases today, a total of 1,558 active cases.  Compare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases during October was 284, average in November was 650, in December 1,658 – and TODAY we are at 1,558.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Or do we just sit back and wait for a voluntary 10 day quarantine to expire.  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
    • Hospitalizations – (See expanding ICU capacity and ventilator availablity below.)  Today, Solano reported no change in the number of currently hospitalized cases, total of 137.  Also no change today in the number of hospitalizations among age groups.  (The County posted its “occasional” large group of updated numbers on hospitalizations among the age groups this week, adding 5 in the 50-64 year age group and 12 more in the 65+ age group, for a total of 820 hospitalized in all age groups since the pandemic began.) Even then, accuracy cannot be certain – note…  >>In a December 31 Fairfield Daily Republic article, reporter Todd Hanson wrote, “Since the start of the pandemic, and as of Wednesday, 9,486 residents have been hospitalized.”  This startling number is far and away above the number of residents hospitalized as indicated in the count of age group hospitalizations, and not available anywhere on the County’s COVID-19 dashboard.  Asked about his source, Hanson replied that Solano Public Health “had to do a little research on my behalf.”  It would be good if the County could add Total Hospitalized to its daily Dashboard update.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats belowFor COVID19-CA.GOV numbers, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.]
    • ICU Beds – Solano hospitals recently expanded their ICU capacity [see Benicia Independent, “Why the sudden improvement in our ICU bed numbers?“]  Even with the expanded ICU capacity, Solano County has dropped back into the YELLOW DANGER ZONE in ICU beds available, down from 17% yesterday, to 13% today.  The State’s COVID19-CA.GOV reported today that Solano County had ONLY 8 AVAILABLE ICU BEDS as of yesterday, January 28(For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
    • Ventilators available – This week, for the first time since July 24 of last year, Solano County is reporting the percentage of ventilators available.  Today Solano hospitals have 49% of ventilators available, up from 41% yesterday but down substantially from last summer’s reports of 82-94% available.
Positive Test Rate – SOLANO TEST RATE REMAINS ALARMINGLY HIGH, 16.9% – VIRUS STILL SPREADING, STAY HOME!

Solano County reported our 7-day average positive test at an alarming rate of 16.9%, same as yesterday, and still more than 2 times the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  COMPARE: The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was down slightly from yesterday’s 7.5% to 7.4% today(Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group
  • Youth 17 and under – 21 new cases overnight, total of 3,213 cases, representing 11.6% of the 27,706 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today among this age group, total of 17 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age groupBut cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 17 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 109 new cases overnight, total of 15,292 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 55.2% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 241 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 9 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 69 new cases overnight, total of 5,801 cases.  This age group represents 20.9% of the 27,706 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 222 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were reported in this age group today, a total of 18 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 21 new cases overnight, total of 3,389, representing 12.2% of Solano’s 27,706 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today, a total of 340 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were  reported in this age group today.  A total of 95 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 78% of Solano’s 122 total deaths.
City Data
  • Benicia added 8 new cases overnight, total of 782 cases since the outbreak began.  274 new cases in January, avg. of 9.5 per day.
  • Dixon added 7 new cases overnight, total of 1,645 cases.  424 new cases in January, avg. of 15 per day.
  • Fairfield added 33 new cases overnight, total of 7,623 cases.  2,180 new cases in January, avg. of 75 per day.
  • Rio Vista added 2 new cases today, total of 264 cases.  99 new cases in January, avg. of 3 per day.
  • Suisun City added 9 new cases overnight, total of 1,888 cases.  542 new cases in January, avg. of 19 per day.
  • Vacaville added 88 new cases overnight, total of 7,311 cases.  2,457 new cases in January, avg. of 85 per day.
  • Vallejo added 73 new cases overnight, total of 8107 cases.  2,494 new cases in January, avg. of 86 per day.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 86 cases.  25 new cases in January, avg. of nearly 1 per day.
Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 17% of hospitalizations, and 22% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 13% of cases, 22% of hospitalizations, and 15% of deaths.
  • Multi-race / Others are 7% of Solano’s population, but account for 35% of cases, 18% of hospitalizations, and 12% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 29% of cases, 30% of hospitalizations and 34% of deaths.

More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Source
Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard (posted on the County website late today).  ALSO see important daily updates from the state of California at COVID19.CA.GOV, embedded here on the BenIndy at Cases and Deaths AND Hospitalizations AND ICU Beds by REGION.