All posts by Roger Straw

Editor, owner, publisher of The Benicia Independent
2020 elections, Benicia elections, Jason Diavatis, Negative ads, Negative campaigning, Steve Young, Valero Benicia Refinery, Valero PAC

Benicia Mayor race: 2 more $Valero mailers smearing Steve Young

By Roger Straw, October 20, 2020
I have chosen NOT to display Valero’s most recent nasty mailers.  I won’t give them the time, space and bully pulpit here.  Read on for description and analysis…

There are two sides to the latest Valero PAC mailers: nasty slams on Young and Diavatis, and big name sweet promos for their candidate.

$Valero’s push to win the Benicia Mayor’s seat continues unabated, despite the requests by all candidates that they cease and desist.

The claim against Diavatis is instructive.  The Valero PAC claims to have paid for a poll that shows Diavatis can’t win.  When was the last time that ANY candidate in Benicia was able to afford polling?  Small towns don’t do polling.  But big oil money does.

Valero’s independent expenditure committee (PAC) has set aside around $250,000 for our little Mayor’s race, and spent over $70,000 as of October 9.  (Additional contribution of $25,000 now – see update here.)

The U.S. Supremes ruled that the Valero PAC is a person, and can spend as much as it likes on an election.  But here in Benicia, we have a fair campaign ordinance that limits REAL people who run for office to expenditures of no more than $34,200 per candidate.

The total spending of the three candidates for Mayor amount to 3 x $34,200 or $102,600.  Stack that total up against Valero’s $250,000, and you might think the playing field is a little slanted?  And recall that one of the REAL person campaigns will be Valero’s chosen candidate, so it’s actually $250,000 plus their candidate’s $34,200, for a grand total of over $284,000.  Plunk down that kind of money against any one or two candidates, and see what happens.

That wouldn’t be fair even if Valero played nice.

I have chosen NOT to scan and post Valero’s most recent mailers.  I won’t give them the time, space and bully pulpit here.  Suffice to say the ads are all on file with me.  (Oh, and… the Benicia fair campaign ordinance requires that Valero submit photocopies of their ads, like they did in 2018 when they smeared candidate Kari Birdseye.  Why have we NOT seen photocopies in any of their 6 submitted 496 Independent Expenditure forms?)

See also:

Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Solano COVID numbers: 108 new cases over the weekend, average of 37 per day over last 2 weeks

[Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard.  For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE.]

Monday, October 19: 108 new cases over the weekend, no new deaths, no new hospitalizations.  Since the outbreak began: 7,117 cases, 405 hospitalized, 74 deaths.Compare previous report, Friday, Oct. 16:Summary

  • Solano County reported 108 new cases over the weekend, total of 7,117 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 2 weeks, Solano reported 516 new cases, average of 37 per day (significantly higher than the previous weeks’ daily averages).
  • Deaths – no new deaths today, total of 74 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 31 fewer ACTIVE cases today, total of 270.  Last week, Solano reported over 300 active cases for the first time since September 4.  Note that only 24 of these 270 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons increased by 3 today, total of 24.  The total number hospitalized since the outbreak started remained steady today, total of 405. (For manual calculation of total, see age group stats below).
  • ICU Beds – the County reported a significant drop in ICU beds available, down from 46% to 38%.  (After 8 weeks, still no information about availability of ventilators.)
  • Testing – The County reports today that 1,983 more residents were tested over the weekend, new total of 98,214.  (Solano has AVERAGED over 450 tested per day during the last 3 weeks.)  Solano has a long way to go; only 21.9% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate jumped today from 6.1% to 6.5%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much more stable California 7-day test rate dropped today, from 2.6% to 2.4%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 14 new cases today, total of 802 cases, representing 11.3% of the 7,117 total cases.  No new hospitalizations among this age group today, a total of 6 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued just over 11% since September 30, increasing to 11.3% for the first time today.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low.  The significance is this: 1) youth numbers increased steadily and at a faster rate than the other age groups, and 2) youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 6 youth have now been hospitalized.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 53 new cases today, total of 4,238 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents just under 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 131 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this young age group today, total of 5 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 28 new cases today, total of 1,365 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 7,117 total cases. No new hospitalizations today, total of 109 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 15 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – Today the County reported 13 new cases, total of 710.  No new hospitalizations, total of 159.  No new deaths, total of 54 of our elders who died of COVID.  This age group’s 710 cases represent 10% of the 7,117 total cases.  In this older age group, 22.5% of cases required hospitalization at one time.  This group accounts for 54 of the 74 deaths, or 73%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 1 new case today, total of 183 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 12 new cases today, total of 462 cases.
  • Fairfield added 31 new cases today, total of 2,302 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 2 new cases today, total of 56 cases.
  • Suisun City added 7 new cases today, total of 516 cases.
  • Vacaville added 20 new cases today, total of 1,233 cases.
  • Vallejo added 35 new cases today, total of 2,342 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 23 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 24% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 29% of cases, 29% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 22% of cases, 27% of hospitalizations and 30% of deaths.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

2020 elections, Benicia elections, Benicia Mayor, Fair elections, Negative campaigning, Steve Young, Valero Benicia Refinery, Valero PAC

Benicia Mayor candidate Steve Young: Finding common ground with Valero when they want me to lose SO badly

By Roger Straw, October  19, 2020
The Benicia Herald, Sunday, October 18, p. A5

Candidate for Benicia Mayor Steve Young took out a half-page ad in Sunday’s print edition of the Benicia Herald, laying out steps Valero could take to be a “better neighbor to Benicia.”

The ad headline asks, WHY DO VALERO & THEIR FRIENDS WANT ME TO LOSE SO BADLY?

Candidate Young continues,

I appreciate the value Valero brings to Benicia and their generosity to assist the community.  But appreciating the good they do and being critical of their negative politics are not mutually exclusive.  It’s not either or.  We can and should do both.

The strain between Valero and the City is often attributed to their contentions relationships with specific candidates and elected officials.  I just don’t see it that way.  I think the blame rests on their response (or lack thereof) to a concerned community and the lengths they have gone to disrupt elections that have historically been fair & friendly.  We need a Mayor with the necessary experience to find a common ground that will enable Valero to become a “”Better Neighbor” to Benicia.  Where do we start?

Young then lays out 3 bullet points for a better relationship with Valero:

PROTECTING THE HEALTH AND SAFETY OF BENICIANS AND THEIR FAMILIES MUST COME FIRST.

    • Increase transparency & improve communication including immediate community alerts for any incident impacting resident health, safety or environment, followed by regular updates and instructions on how to respond.
    • Air quality monitoring systems that work in conjunction with public alerts in accordance with official City policy & procedure.
    • Cease all negative campaigning practices and allow Benicia voters to elect candidates in accordance with City’s Election Code.  Keep elections fair and stop the spread of false or misleading attack ads.

Young then addresses outside election influence and Benicia’s future if Valero continues its negative campaign tactics:

IF WE ALLOW VALERO’S PAC TO WIN A MAYOR’S SEAT, A DANGEROUS PRECEDENT WILL BE SET AS A RESULT.

If Valero’s PAC succeeds, we can expect these same destructive tactics in every Benicia election going forward.  It’s time we take a stand and let them know, “Enough is enough!”   You can start by electing me as your next Mayor.  I have the right qualifications and the temperament to repair the discord between the City and Valero, and help heal the divide felt within our community.  I’m ready to get to work!

Young concludes with a statement about big outside money and an invitation for Valero to choose a better course:

MONEY DOESN’T VOTE, YOU AND I DO.  BENICIA ELECTIONS SHOULD BE DECIDED BY BENICIA VOTERS.

I encourage Valero to seize this opportunity and choose to be better.  Restore the peace in our politics, reset your relationship with the community, and work with the City as equal parties, both deserving mutual trust, respect and transparency.  Vote for me, STEVE YOUNG, either on, or before November 3rd.  If elected Mayor of Benicia, I pledge to do whatever it takes to achieve these common goals.

See also:

Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Solano County COVID-19 Positive Rate back over 6%, first time since Sept 3

County averaging 35 new cases per day over last two weeks

[Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard.  For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE.]

Friday, October 16: 58 new cases overnight, no new deaths, 2 new hospitalizations.  Since the outbreak began: 7,009 cases, 405 hospitalized, 74 deaths.Compare previous report, Thursday, Oct. 15:Summary

  • Solano County reported 58 new cases today, total of 7,009 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 2 weeks, Solano reported 489 new cases, average of 35 per day (significantly higher than the previous weeks’ daily averages).
  • Deaths – no new deaths today, total of 74 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
    19 deaths reported in 24 days, Sept 22 – Oct 15:
    – 1 very young person 18-49 years;
    – 4 middle agers 50-64 years    ;
    – 14 of our elders aged 65+    ;
  • Active cases – Solano reported 3 fewer ACTIVE cases today, total of 301.  This week, Solano reported over 300 active cases for the first time since September 4.  Solano averaged 238 active cases in daily reports Sept 4 – Oct 14, so this shows a significant recent rise.
    Note that only 21 of these 301 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons increased by 1 today, total of 21.  The total number hospitalized since the outbreak started increased by 2 today, total of 405.  (See age group hospitalization stats below).
  • ICU Beds – the County reported an increase in ICU beds available, up from 45% to 46%.  (After 8 weeks, still no information about availability of ventilators.)
  • Testing – The County reports today that 235 more residents were tested, new total of 96,231.  (Solano has AVERAGED over 450 tested per day during the last 3 weeks.)  Solano has a long way to go; only 21.5% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate jumped today from 5.4% to 6.1%, exceeding 6% for the first time since September 3.  Solano’s test rate crested the week of July 15-22, when it peaked at 9.3%.  The County has hit 7% (or more) three times since: on August 21, September 1 and September 2.  In the 6 weeks since September 2, our test rate was reported as high as 6.5% and as low as 2.7% (on Sept 11), averaging 4.5%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much more stable California 7-day test rate remained steady today, at 2.6%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 10 new cases today, total of 788 cases, representing 11.2% of the 7,009 total cases.  No new hospitalizations among this age group today, a total of 6 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued just over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low.  The significance is this: 1) youth numbers increased steadily and at a faster rate than the other age groups, and 2) youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 6 youth have now been hospitalized.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 29 new cases today, total of 4,185 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents just under 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 131 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this young age group today, total of 5 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 15 new cases today, total of 1,337 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 7,009 total cases. No new hospitalizations today, total of 109 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 15 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – Today the County reported 4 new cases, total of 697.  No new hospitalizations, total of 157.  No new deaths, total of 54 of our elders who died of COVID.  This age group’s 697 cases represent 10% of the 7,009 total cases.  In this older age group, 22.5% of cases required hospitalization at one time.  This group accounts for 54 of the 74 deaths, or 73%.

City Data

  • Benicia remained steady today, total of 182 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 4 new cases today, total of 450 cases.
  • Fairfield added 23 new cases today, total of 2,271 cases.
  • Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 54 cases.
  • Suisun City added 6 new cases today, total of 509 cases.
  • Vacaville added 14 new cases today, total of 1,213cases.
  • Vallejo added 11 new cases today, total of 2,307 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 23 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 24% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 29% of cases, 29% of hospitalizations, and 20% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 22% of cases, 27% of hospitalizations and 30% of deaths.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.