Benicia physician Richard Fleming: Comparing Solano County’s COVID numbers to other Bay Area counties

Solano County covid-19 numbers

Benicia Nextdoor, by Dr. Richard Fleming, September 8, 2021
Dr. Richard Fleming, Benicia

There are 9 counties in the Bay Area. In 7 counties, covid-19 cases per 100K are declining. In Contra Costa, the case rate has increased by 4%. In Solano, the case rate has increased by 41%. Our case rate is 59 per 100K. The next highest in the Bay Area is 35.

As far as covid-19 hospitalizations, 4 counties are flat or declining. Solano is among the 5 counties seeing hospitalizations increasing. We now have 30 people hospitalized per 100K. The next highest county is 27. Most Bay Area counties are much lower.

The mortality rate in Solano County is 32% higher than the next highest county.

As far as vaccinations, 53% of our population is fully vaccinated. The other 8 counties range between 65% and 76%.

nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

It has been said by some that we are not like the other 8 Bay Area counties. I have to say I don’t understand that statement. As far as our covid-19 metrics, it is clearly true. But I feel Solano County should be able to counter this virus as well as our neighbors in the bay. There is no reason for us to concede that we are, for some reason, incapable of protecting ourselves as well as our peers to the south and the west.


BenIndy editor: for Solano County data, go to nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/solano-california-covid-cases.html

ICU beds in Solano County now in red warning zone


By Roger Straw, Wednesday, September 8, 2021

Wednesday, September 8: Solano reports 406 new infections and only 9% of ICU beds available (red warning zone)

Solano County COVID dashboard SUMMARY:
[Sources: see below.]

DEATHS: Good news, no new deaths were reported over the 5-day holiday hiatusTotal Solano deaths over the course of the pandemic remain at 276.

CASES: The County reported  406 new COVID cases in the last five days, 81 per day, down significantly from last week, but still in the range of last winter’s surge.

COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION RATE: Over the last 7 days, Solano has seen 1,967 new cases, OVER FOUR TIMES the CDC’s definition of a HIGH rate of transmission.  Based on Solano County population of 449,432, the CDC would rate us in “SUBSTANTIAL” transmission with 225 cases over the last 7 days.  Double that, or 450 cases in the last 7 days would rank us in “HIGH” transmission.  And we are at 1,967 cases as of today!  [Reference: CDC’s level for “High Community Transmission”.]

YOUTH CASES: Case numbers continue to show a startling increase in the percentage of new cases among young persons age 0-17, increasing another tenth of a percent today to a new high of 13.9% of total cases.  The percentage of youth cases increased very, very slowly over the course of the pandemic, starting below 6%, and only gradually reaching 12% in mid-April of 2021.  The percentage of youth cases has jumped a full 0.9% since mid-August.

ACTIVE CASES: Solano’s 813 ACTIVE cases is down sharply from last Friday’s 1,051, but still alarmingly up from 212 on July 2, and in the range we experienced during the deadly surge last winter.

POSITIVE TEST RATE:  Our 7-day average percent positivity rate was 11.7% today, down from 13.9% on last Friday, but 3.5 times today’s California rate of 3.3% and 1.25 times today’s U.S. rate of 9.4%[Source: Johns Hopkins]  WARNING: The Delta Variant is here in Solano County and spreading fast.  Time to mask up again – watch out and take care!  

HOSPITALIZATIONS:

CURRENT hospitalizations were down today from 123 to 112 persons, but still in the range we saw during the winter surge.

ICU Bed Availability dropped alarmingly to only 9% of ICU beds available today, in the RED WARNING ZONE.  This is the first time Solano ICU beds were in the red zone since January 27, 2021.

Ventilator Availability was up today from 44% to 51%, but still in the range of last February’s winter surge.

TOTAL hospitalizations  The County’s Monday-Friday dashboard shows an intake/discharge total of CURRENTLY hospitalized cases (above), but never reports on the TOTAL hospitalized over the course of the pandemic.  That total must be independently discovered in the County’s occasional update of the Hospitalizations by Age Group chart.  The County updated its Hospitalizations charts today.  See the Age Group chart and the Race / Ethnicity chart below.  Interestingly, the race/ethnicity numbers don’t square with the age group numbers.

FACE MASKS… Good News in Benicia and Vallejo

GOOD NEWS!  Benicia City Council passed a citywide indoors mask mandate. The mandate went into effect immediately and includes everyone 4 years old and up when indoors in public places, even those of us who are vaccinated.  The mask resolution, press release, and a flyer now appear on the City website.

Benicia was the first Solano city to take action despite the County’s lack of strong guidance on masks.  Benicia was joined by Vallejo on August 31In the Bay Area, Solano County REMAINS the only holdout against even RECOMMENDING masks in public indoors spaces.  Hopefully, Dr. Matyas will learn from Benicia and Vallejo, and make the necessary difficult decisions, but all reports are that he intends not to do so. 

Please mask indoors in public places now, and maybe even indoors in crowded gatherings at home with vaccinated family and friends!  PLEASE talk to anyone you know who isn’t vaccinated.  This thing ain’t over yet!

Cases by City on Wednesday, September 8:
  • Benicia added 9 new cases today, a total of 1,354 cases since the outbreak began.  Benicia has seen 78 new cases over the last 7 days, nearly 3 times the CDC’s definition of HIGH community transmission level based on Benicia population.  [Note that Solano County is also rated in high transmission, and Solano’s 6 other cities are likely also individually experiencing high transmission.]
  • Dixon added 25 new cases today, total of 2,362 cases.
  • Fairfield added 106 new cases today, total of 11,488 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 7 new cases today, total of 533 cases.
  • Suisun City added 34 new cases today, total of 2,989 cases.
  • Vacaville added 115 new cases today, a total of 11,138 cases.
  • Vallejo added 109 new cases today, a total of 12,446 cases.
  • Unincorporated added 1 new case today, a total of 134 cases (population figures not available).

Continue reading ICU beds in Solano County now in red warning zone

Solano County reports postdating of huge recent increase in COVID cases

By Roger Straw, September 7, 2021

Dr. Matyas reports glitch in information received from State – recent spike of 1,000+ actually dates back into July

Fairfield Daily Republic, by Todd Hansen, September 3, 2021

FAIRFIELD — The state has figured out why coronavirus reporting has been so off-track during this recent Covid surge – a glitch that on Wednesday added 1,044 cases to Solano County’s total.

However, the cases date back into July, with only 160 cases since Monday’s update – taking the full count to 41,521, the county reported.

Sill, that reflects a daily average of 80 new cases in those two days, and the 10-day average remained at 110.

“Almost all of (the delayed reports) are from Kaiser Northern California,” Dr. Bela Matyas, the Solano County public health officer, said in a phone interview. The reporting glitch was just recently discovered.

Kaiser Permanente said in a statement released Thursday that the company is working with its technology vendor to ensure that the situation is resolved. The company said in the statement that it has made the data available through an alternate means while the situation was occurring, but did not include in the statement details about the alternate reporting.

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Benicia physician Alan Plutchok MD: Matyas missing the facts

Evidence missing

Vallejo Times-Herald Letters, September 2, 2021
Alan Plutchok, MD | Benicia CA

I have read the interview with Dr. Matyas in the Vallejo Times-Herald. He has not presented evidence-based studies to back up his stance on not masking in indoor public places.

Solano County has the highest rate of COVID of all Bay Area counties. All other counties have mandated indoor masking. Some counties have seen their rate of COVID decrease.

Evidence-based medicine is the standard for decision-making. A lengthy evidence review of face mask use during COVID-19 in the proceedings of the United States National Academy of Science on Jan. 26 concludes: “Near universal adoption of non-medical masks when out in public in combination with complementary public health measures could reduce the spread of COVID-19.”

I agree that we can not control COVID-19, but only mitigate it, We have learned to accept multiple mandates that only mitigate against death or significant injury: Seat belts, helmets for motorcycles and bicycles in children, and many more.

Masks have been documented by history to mitigate pandemics, like the 1910 Manchurian Plague.

The Solano County Department of Health is responsible to protect our citizens. People often ask for second opinions for grave illnesses. I ask that the Solano County Board of Supervisors asks for a second opinion on a mask mandate from the infectious disease heads of Kaiser and Sutter in Solano County and also consultation with either UC Davis or UC San Francisco.

— Alan Plutchok MD/Benicia

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