Tag Archives: Face coverings

Open Letter to Benicia City Council: Dr. Richard Fleming on mask mandate

Professional perspective and corrections: vaccine, hospitalizations, role of government, Bay Area comparisons

Email, by Richard Fleming, M.D., November 17, 2021, with permission

Hi Benicia City Council members,

Richard Fleming, M.D.

Thank you for taking the time to discuss and consider the safest way forward for our city during the pandemic. I hope you can take a few minutes to consider the following points:

  1. Vaccination rate.  According to publicly available data from the California Department of Public Health, the fully-vaccinated rate for the city of Benicia is 67.7%.  We have never been above 70% and certainly never been above 80%, numbers which have been mentioned in past city council meetings. (If we include those who got only one shot, the percentage is 76.7%, but the more important number is those who are fully vaccinated.) I strongly urge you to use the CDPH-reported fully-vaccinated rate for Benicia in future city council meetings. Also keep in mind that many fully-vaccinated people have not yet gotten boosters, and are beginning to lose some degree of immunity. Thus, the proportion of our city which has good immunity against covid-19 is actually less that 67.7%.
    You can see the state-provided numbers here:
    https://dig.abclocal.go.com/kabc/ca-vaccine-tracker/CA_vax_zip_map.html
  2. Vaccine availability is not a good measure of our city’s immunity to covid-19.  It is not a good metric to use in making public health safety decisions. Vaccines are equally available throughout the Bay Area, yet our city’s vaccination rate is below the average vaccination rate for the other 8 Bay Area counties. It is clear that availability of the vaccine does not equate to uptake of the vaccine. It is better to make public health decisions based on the actual level of immunity, rather than the potential level of immunity.
  3. Are cases or hospitalizations a better metric to follow? As Councilmember Largaespada noted at last night’s meeting, covid cases can vary depending on how much testing is being done. He correctly pointed out that the hospitalization rate is a better gauge of the virus’ impact on our city. I am unaware of Benicia-specific hospitalization data, so Solano County’s data is a fair proxy. The August City Council decision used cases as the metric to follow. I strongly urge you to change this metric to hospitalizations, since this measure more accurately captures how the pandemic is affecting our residents. Also, it is important to not view ICU capacity as equivalent to hospitalization rates. Councilmember Largaespada interchangeably referred to ICU capacity and hospitalization rates, but those are two very distinct and different measures. Since treatment options for covid-19 have improved dramatically, many covid-19 patients who are quite sick are now being safely managed on standard medical units or step-down units. The only ones needing ICU beds these days are the sickest of the sick. If ICU capacity in our county is going to be used as a metric, we could have stopped all public health precautions several months ago.
  4. Should covid public health policies let those who choose not to be vaccinated live with the consequences of their decision? At your meeting last night, it was said we at some point need to just move on, and accept the fact the virus will be with us for a long time. Since vaccines are now widely available, it is up to individuals to decide whether to get them or not. I have two responses:
    (a) Yes, covid-19 will likely become endemic at some point, like influenza. But we are not there yet. In fact, we are far from that point. In very bad influenza years, the country loses an average of 142 people per day. Covid-19 is still killing over 1,000 people per day. Covid-19 is surging in many areas of the country and the world, and the coming winter months, along with holiday parties, will very likely increase the risk of viral spread. Most public health experts do anticipate covid-19 will become endemic and something we need to manage in our lives. But we are not there yet.
    (b) Government has always had a role and responsibility to help protect people from themselves. That is why, for example, we have seat belt laws. The availability of seat belts does not necessarily mean they will be used, so we have laws which force people to use them. Even more importantly, government has a role to insure people not make individual decision which harm others. That is why why have drunk driving laws. A person may feel they can hold their liquor and drive safely, but the government has decided to not leave that judgment up to each individual. With covid, those who opt to not be vaccinated are both putting themselves at risk and putting others at risk. It is fully appropriate for government to adopt policies to protect both the individual and the community from those who are putting themselves and others at risk.
  5. What other Bay Area counties are doing. At last night’s meeting, I said that the other eight Bay Area counties are all retaining mask mandates. As was correctly pointed out, Marin has lifted their mask mandate, but it is only lifted for fully-vaccinated people. Partially vaccinated and unvaccinated people are still under a mask mandate. Marin has the highest vaccination rate, the lowest hospitalization rate, and the lowest death rate in the Bay Area. Contra Costa has not yet made a decision to lift their mask mandate. They along with several other counties are lifting mask mandates for selected businesses, but only when 100% of employees and customers are fully vaccinated. The other Bay Area counties have fared better during the pandemic than Solano County, and are approaching easing up on precautions very cautiously. I strongly encourage you to follow a similar approach.

Thank you for your work helping safeguard our community.

Richard Fleming, MD


MORE

For details on Council’s discussion and outcome, see: “Benicia City Council debates changing mask mandate, decides to keep in place, will review again on Dec. 7

Benicia City Council debates changing mask mandate, decides to keep in place, will review again on Dec. 7

The Council’s August 24 Mask Mandate remains in place for now

By Roger Straw, November 18, 2021
Benicia Mayor Steve Young

Benicia Mayor Young reported on last night’s City Council meeting that “Council decided not to change the mask requirements but to continue with the same metrics.”

The mandate, he continued, “will be reviewed again at the Dec 7 meeting.  If our 7-day case rates stay below high or substantial for another two weeks, the mandate will be dropped.”

The Mayor agreed with the Benicia Independent and many throughout the community that the City should be wary of dropping the mandate before the holidays and onset of winter.  “I was urging to wait through the holidays,” he wrote.

Dr. Richard Fleming agreed: “While the council agreed to continue the current mask mandate until their December 7 meeting, there appeared to be a desire by some to lift the mandate soon if the current case counts stay where they are for two more weeks.

“I feel strongly,” he continued, “that such a step would be premature and would risk opening the door to more viral spread.  I wrote the Council this morning (see text here), to explain why I think they should reassess the basis on which they decide whether to retain or remove the mask mandate, based on scientific evidence.”

Dr. Fleming added that “Many city residents called in to offer their opinions, and the vast majority were in favor of retaining the mandate until the pandemic has subsided significantly.  A number of callers spoke of the likelihood of a winter surge in cases due to colder weather and holiday gatherings.”

Council rejected a motion by Councilmember Lionel Largaespada to ease the metrics governing the mandate, which would have basically done away with the citywide mask mandate at this time.  Largaespada’s motion died for lack of a second.

Mayor Young was prepared to bring a motion to allow local businesses to voluntarily permit customers to enter maskless if 100% of employees and customers show proof of vaccination.  Young wrote, “The idea generated over 100 form letters of virulent opposition, and were evidently persuasive to council who did not support it.”  Sensing no support, Young chose not to offer the motion, and joined the majority in support of the City’s previously agreed upon mandate metrics – requiring 30 consecutive days below the CDC’s SUBSTANTIAL transmission level (7-day case rate).

For Benicia’s current and recent 7-day case rates, see https://beniciaindependent.com/coronavirus/#beniciacases.

No final vote was required on maintaining the status quo.  As Mayor Young wrote, “Since we weren’t changing existing policy it didn’t require a motion.”


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Richard Fleming, M.D.


>> For an important analysis of Council’s discussion, see “Open Letter to Benicia City Council: Dr. Richard Fleming on mask mandate“.

10 Reasons to Extend Benicia’s Face Mask Mandate

By Benicia author Stephen Golub, November 16, 2021
Open letter to Benicia City Council, considering amendments to the mandate TONIGHT, Tues. Nov. 16.  (See Council Agenda: Instructions for Public Comments are on p. 6.  Items 20.E. and 21.A. are on p. 9.)

Dear Mayor Young, Vice Mayor Campbell, and Council Members Strawbridge, Largaespada and Macenski:

Benicia Author Stephen Golub, A Promised Land: America as a Developing Country

I am a Benicia resident writing to urge that, at tonight’s meeting, the City Council extend indefinitely (and probably until at least March 2022) Resolution No. 21-88, which requires that “face coverings be worn in all indoor public settings in the City.”

I am not a public health expert. But it is clear that the evidence demonstrating that masks limit the spread of Covid is overwhelming. It includes a 350,000-person randomized controlled trial, summarized below, that was completed in August. But before diving a bit into such data, the following list of reasons for extending the mandate starts with one very basic consideration:

  1. Common Sense. Winter is coming, and with it the very strong likelihood of a significant rise in Covid cases and resulting deaths due to more people being indoors and holiday gatherings. We’ve seen this movie before – last winter, to be exact. And we’ve seen other Covid waves caused or exacerbated by relaxing precautions prematurely, even after vaccines were made available. Let’s not repeat such mistakes by weakening or eliminating our mask mandate.
  2. Europe’s Record-high Cases a Harbinger for California. As recently reported in the San Francisco Chronicle, Europe, including highly vaccinated Western European nations, are seeing skyrocketing cases: According to the director general of the World Health Organization, two million cases last week, which was the highest figure at any point in the pandemic, along with a 10 percent mortality increase.
    As Dr. John Swartzberg, a UC Berkeley infectious disease and public health expert warns us, “Throughout the pandemic, Europe has been a harbinger of things to come to the US, including California and the Bay Area,” he wrote in an email to the Chronicle. “If this pattern holds true (and I suspect it will), we should be very worried. The colder weather (more people inside) and the holidays already make the upcoming winter a precarious time.”
  3. Look Toward the Future, Not the Past. If, in the final days leading up to the October 24 storm that pummeled the Bay Area, someone had suggested that it would be a good day for a picnic since the past week had been pleasant, we’d look at them askance (to put it mildly). Yet that is somewhat akin to the policy the Council adopted with the best of intentions in August, relying on the past 30 days of transmission rates to determine whether to drop or modify the mask mandate.
    I am not suggesting that such a criterion be dropped. It is in fact useful and relevant. However, I urge that it be supplemented by consideration of likely trends and other data. As I’ve noted, such trends point toward a very possible storm of Covid cases, which in turn points toward leaving the mandate in place. Even if this means the Council makes a somewhat subjective assessment of whether or when to modify the mandate, that is what you’ve been elected to do: take account of recent data, yes, but also exercise your good judgment regarding what the future holds. This probably means holding off on revising the mandate until at least March, when winter is behind us, and only if the data and trends suggest doing so.
  4. Evidence from Across America. As pointed out by Dr. Richard Fleming, who called in to your August meeting, a comparative study in Kansas found that masks help limit Covid’s spread. More specifically, “counties that chose to enforce [a statewide mask] mandate saw their cases decrease. Counties that chose to opt out saw their cases continue to rise…. the findings were consistent with declines in coronavirus cases observed in 15 states and the District of Columbia where masks were mandated, compared with states that didn’t require the face coverings.”
  5. “Gold Standard” Evidence from Abroad. For the 18 months ending in August 2021, a Stanford/Yale-led team conducted in Bangladesh the largest and most rigorous study of whether masks make a difference in people catching Covid. Involving roughly 350,000 people in 600 villages, it featured research comparing results between carefully selected, demographically similar populations. Some, in the “intervention villages” were encouraged to wear masks and were supplied with them; others – the “control villages” – were not.
    The upshot? Despite the fact that fewer than 50 percent of intervention villagers wore masks in public places, Covid infections were 11 percent lower in the intervention areas for the population as a whole and 35 percent lower for those over 60. “We now have evidence from a randomized, controlled trial that mask promotion increases the use of face coverings and prevents the spread of COVID-19,” said Stephen Luby, MD, professor of medicine at Stanford. “This is the gold standard for evaluating public health interventions.”
  6. Yet More Evidence for Mask Efficacy. I am only scratching the surface of the research indicating that masks prevent Covid. Two of the numerous compilations of relevant data can be found here and here.
  7. Heed Benicia’s and America’s Health Authorities. As pointed out by the aforementioned Dr. Richard Fleming in a letter to the Times-Herald, Solano County Health Officer and Deputy Director Dr. Bela Matyas has been wrong on face masks in key respects, including his claim that “Our data clearly shows that indoor public spaces are not where the disease spreads.” As Dr. Fleming notes, “[Dr. Matyas] said spread results from private gatherings, so a mask mandate would not help. Yet he has published no data to support that statement.”
    Indeed, regarding the mask mandate and other Covid-related matters, Dr. Matyas has been at odds with other Bay Area counties, the State, the CDC, the Napa-Solano Medical Society, numerous other public health authorities and the roughly half-dozen Benicia-based medical and public health personnel who called in to your August meeting in support of the mandate. Going forward, the Council should heed that broad consensus of data-based opinion rather than Dr. Matyas.
  8. Protect Benicia’s Businesses and Workers. The face mask mandate benefits Benicians by making workplaces and workers safer. In the process, it makes good business sense. One reason the country saw a record 4.4 million Americans quit their jobs in September is because of Covid safety concerns, according to this Washington Post piece: “There are likely some delta-induced quits here,” said Daniel Zhao, an economist at Glassdoor, in reference to the coronavirus variant. “Workers are fed up with working conditions and feel unsafe…Quits are high in leisure and hospitality, health services and education,” Zhao noted. “Those are all industries where an increase in covid can make work less safe.”
    While masks are by no means the sole solution, the absence of a mandate can be part of the problem.
  9. Freedom. It’s unfortunate that this bears repeating nearly two years into the pandemic, but I’ll repeat it anyway: Face masks protect not just or mainly the persons wearing them, but the persons with whom they come into contact. In voting to maintain the mandate, the Council will be doing what it can to advance freedom from disease and death. That’s a freedom far more important than from having to wear a simple facial covering.
  10. In sum, I ask that the Council extend the mandate because common sense, a plethora of data and Benicia’s and the nation’s public health authorities have concluded this:
    • Face masks help prevent Covid’s spread.
    • Face masks help prevent illness.
    • Face masks save lives.

Sincerely,

Stephen Golub

My blog: A Promised Land: America as a Developing Country

Benicia sees only 1 new infection, remains in MODERATE transmission for 12th consecutive day

NOTE: The information below is not the latest.  CLICK HERE for today’s latest information.

By Roger Straw, Monday, November 15, 2021  [Note:  Be aware that the Benicia City Council may weaken its mask mandate on Nov. 16 – click here to scroll down.  – R.S.]

Monday, November 15: Solano County reports 92 new infections over the weekend, remains in SUBSTANTIAL rate of transmission. Presenting today: Case rate percentages by age groups.

Solano County COVID dashboard SUMMARY:
[Sources: see below.]

DEATHS: Solano reported no new COVID-related deaths today.  The County reported 27 COVID deaths in September, 18 in October, and good news: NONE since October 18.  Bad news: a total of 315 Solano residents have died of COVID or COVID-related causes over the course of the pandemic.

CASES: The County reported 92 new COVID cases over the weekend.  CASES BY AGE GROUP: 15 of these 92 cases (only 16%) were youth and children under 18.  52 were age 18-49, 14 were age 50-64, and 11 were 65+.  Below is my color-coded analysis of cases reported by age group, as a percentage of total cases.  I am showing increases in red and decreases in green as reported by Solano County since April of 2020.  Note  the steady increase among children and youth of Solano County.  The population of those age 0-17 in Solano County is roughly 22%.COMPARE: U.S. cases among age 0-17 as percentage of total cases is at 15.24% as of today. (From the CDC covid-data-tracker.)

COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION RATE: Over the last 7 days, Solano has seen SUBSTANTIAL community transmission, with 268 new cases (down from 275 on Friday).  CDC FORMULA: Based on Solano County’s population, 450 cases in 7 days would move Solano up into the CDC’s population-based definition of a HIGH transmission rate, and we will need to drop below 225 cases in 7 days to rate as having only MODERATE community transmission.

ACTIVE CASES: Solano’s 331 ACTIVE cases is down from Friday’s 363, but still far above our summer rates.

CASES BY CITY on Monday, November 15:

  • Benicia added only 1 new case today, a total of 1,560 cases since the outbreak began.  Benicia remained in the MODERATE range of community transmission with ONLY 10 new cases over the last 7 days. Benicia has now seen MODERATE 7-day spread for 5 consecutive Solano updates (12 days, since Wed. Nov. 3) – SEE CHART BELOWMODERATE is defined as less than 14 cases, based on Benicia population.  Benicia will need to maintain fewer than 14 new cases per 7 days for 30 consecutive days before relaxing the mask mandate.  [Note above that Solano County is currently experiencing SUBSTANTIAL transmission.

  • Dixon added 4 new cases today, total of 2,567 cases.
  • Fairfield added 26 new cases today, total of 12,429 cases.
  • Rio Vista reported 4 new cases today, total of 625 cases.
  • Suisun City added 11 new cases today, total of 3,278 cases.
  • Vacaville added 27 new cases today, a total of 12,209 cases.
  • Vallejo added 18 new cases today, a total of 13,540 cases.
  • Unincorporated added 1 new case today, a total of 142 cases.

POSITIVE TEST RATE:  Solano’s 7-day percent positivity rate was 4.6% today, up slightly from 4.5% on Friday.  COMPARE: Today’s California rate is 1.7%.  [Source: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Tracking Center]  Today’s U.S. rate is 6.47%. [Source: CDC COVID Data Tracker.] 

HOSPITALIZATIONS:

CURRENT hospitalizations were down today from 35 to 31 persons, but still far above the range we saw during last summer.

TOTAL hospitalizations: Solano County’s TOTAL hospitalized over the course of the pandemic must be independently discovered in the County’s occasional update of hospitalizations by Age Group and by Race/Ethnicity.  Solano Public Health did not update its age and race hospitalizations charts today.  Solano hospitals have admitted a TOTAL of 2,990 COVID patients since the beginning of the outbreak.

ICU Bed Availability is 28% today, up slightly from 27% on Friday, in the YELLOW DANGER zone.  We remain in the worrisome range we saw during last winter’s surge.

Ventilator Availability today fell today from 65% to 60%.

ALERT! Benicia’s mask mandate may be weakened by City Council TOMORROW, Tuesday, Nov 16  – See: “Update on Face Coverings Mandate” Benicia City Council Agenda, Item 21.A, on page 9)

On Tuesday, October 19, Benicia City Council reviewed our CDC-defined 7-day community transmission rate for September-October, which has yet to dip below the SUBSTANTIAL level.  Because of this poor data and according to City Resolution 21-88, Council left in place Benicia’s citywide indoors mask mandate for now.  The mandate went into effect on August 24 and includes everyone 4 years old and up when indoors in public places, even those of us who are vaccinated.  On Oct. 19, Councilmember Largaespada convinced other Councilmembers and staff to bring consideration of amending the mandate back to Council THIS TUESDAY, November 16 – see Agenda, p. 9.  Largaespada suggested amendments that could weaken the mandate with various exceptions, possibly including no indoor mask requirements in restaurants, bars and gyms.  Largaespada would “Limit the mask mandate to the most essential businesses in town.”  He added that groceries, pharmacies, banks and City Hall might be considered essential.

Vallejo also passed an indoors mask mandate on August 31.  In the Bay Area, Solano County REMAINS the only holdout against a mask mandate for public indoors spaces.

SOLANO COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS failed to consider an agendized proposal for a countywide MASK MANDATE on Tuesday, September 14.  Recent Bay Area news put Solano in a sad light: all other county health officers issued a joint statement offering details on when they would be able to lift mask mandates (not likely soon).  TV news anchors had to point out that Solano would not be considering such a move since our health officer had not been able to “justify” a mask mandate in the first place.  The Solano Board of Supervisors has joined with Dr. Bela Matyas in officially showing poor leadership on the COVID-19 pandemic.


HOW DOES TODAY’S REPORT COMPARE?  See recent reports and others going back to April 20, 2020 on my ARCHIVE of daily Solano COVID updates (an excel spreadsheet).


>>The data on this page is from the Solano County COVID-19 Dashboard.  The Dashboard is full of much more information and updated Monday, Wednesday and Friday around 4 or 5pm.  On the County’s dashboard, you can hover a mouse or click on an item for more information.  Note the tabs at top for “Summary, Demographics” and “Vaccines.”  Click here to go to today’s Solano County Dashboard.


Sources