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Benicia City Council, Benicia elections

Benicia City Council: Scott and Birdseye increase their lead

The trend is clear, but it’s still too early to call the race. There are around 1,900 Benicia ballots yet to count.

By Roger Straw, November 11, 2022

New votes today

Here is the updated chart showing today’s Solano County Registrar of Voters report.

Click on image to enlarge.

It’s good news for supporters of Kari Birdseye and Terry Scott, who continued adding newly counted mail-in votes at about the same winning rate as was reported on election day. 3,572 new votes were reported for Council candidates today. Of that number:

    • Terry Scott and Kari Birdseye both received exactly 886 new votes or 24.8% each;
    • Lionel Largaespada received 816 votes, 22.8%; and
    • Christina Strawbridge received 741 votes, 20.7%.

These percentages are very similar to those reported for the 10,000 mail-in ballots reported out on election day:

    • Scott 25.6%
    • Birdseye 24.5%
    • Largaespada 22.1% and
    • Strawbridge 21.1%.
Totals as of today

Ballots and votes still outstanding

As of today, Thursday at 5:40pm, the Solano County Registrar of Voters reported 17,588 outstanding countywide vote by mail ballots and another 1,671 outstanding provisional ballots. Total of around 19,000. My estimate of Benicia’s total remaining to be counted is around 10% of that, or 1,900 ballots. With each voter able to cast up to two votes for Council candidates, that means nearly 3,800 votes have yet to be split between the 5 candidates.

For the daily update of remaining countywide outstanding ballots, see Solano County Election Results.

Still close, but leaning towards Kari and Terry.

Today’s numbers again favor Scott and Birdseye. It may be too close and too early to call the race, but I am feeling good about our likely two new councilmembers, our friends Terry and Kari.

Stay tuned for daily updates – I’ll keep you posted here.

Roger

Previous updates:
Benicia City Council, Benicia elections

Benicia City Council: About that big number of outstanding ballots

Benicia City Council race has around 4,000 ballots yet to count, nearly double that number of votes for candidates

By Roger Straw, November 10, 2022

A number of readers have asked where I got the huge number of outstanding ballots yet to be counted. And some have rightly pointed out that the number I’ve reported is larger than the number of voters in Benicia!

Sorry I wasn’t clear – the large number of outstanding ballots is countywide. Additional Benicia votes in the coming days will account for around 10-12% of the remaining 37,500 countywide ballots still to be counted.

For the daily update of remaining countywide outstanding ballots, see Solano County Election Results.

Precise most recent numbers: As of Wednesday at 5:21pm, the Solano County Registrar of Voters reported 35,821 outstanding vote by mail ballots and another 1,671 outstanding provisional ballots. Total of 37,492. My estimate of Benicia’s total remaining to be counted is around 3,750 to 4,000 ballots. With each voter able to cast up to two votes for Council candidates, that means nearly 7,500 to 8,000 votes have yet to be split between the 5 candidates.

Benicia City Council – Two-day trend favors Birdseye, Scott

Here is a fascinating 2-day comparison, which I developed using data from the Solano County Registrar of Voters website.

Click image to enlarge. Note total figures at right in green.

On the day after election day, the County added nearly 2,000 new BENICIA ballots. With voters casting up to 2 votes for Council candidates, that translated to an increase of 3,382 additional votes counted on November 9 for our Council election.  Of those 3,382 Day-After Votes:

    • Kari Birdseye received the most votes, 861 or 25.5%;
    • Terry Scott received 853 votes, 25.2%;
    • Lionel Largaespada received 762 votes, 22.5%; and
    • Christina Strawbridge received 692 votes, 20.5%.

Still close, but leaning towards Kari and Terry.

As might be expected, these percentages resemble closely the vote-by-mail numbers reported on election day, numbers that favor Scott and Birdseye. It may be too close and too early to call the race, but I am feeling good about our likely two new councilmembers, our friends Terry and Kari.

Stay tuned for daily updates – I’ll keep you posted here.

Roger

Previous updates:
Benicia City Council, Benicia elections

Benicia City Council: Birdseye moves up, now leading in second place

Benicia City Council race is still too close to call – over 37,000 votes yet to count.

By Roger Straw, November 09, 2022
[See Nov. 10 update: Benicia City Council: About that big number of outstanding ballots – R.S.]

Kari Birdseye, candidate for Benicia City Council

The Solano County Registrar of Voters posted new daily vote totals at 5:21 PM tonight, giving Kari Birdseye a narrow lead of only 42 votes.

The good news is that outstanding mail-in ballots leaned in her favor today. If that trend continues over the next few days of ballot updates, we will celebrate her election to Benicia’s City Council, along with our friend Terry Scott, who continues to lead the field of 5 candidates.

Here is the current updated count:

Click to enlarge. Read the figures at right in green.

Stay tuned – I’ll keep you posted here.

Previous update:
Benicia City Council race: Wait, it’s not over yet!

Benicia City Council, Benicia elections

Benicia City Council race: Wait, it’s not over yet!

Benicia City Council race REALLY IS too close to call – over 53,000 votes yet to count.

By Roger Straw, November 09, 2022
[See Nov. 10 update: Benicia City Council: About that big number of outstanding ballots – R.S.]

As it stands, only 57 votes separate third place Kari Birdseye from second place in Benicia’s City Council election, a 5-way contest where the top two vote-getters win a seat on Council.

Solano County Registrar of Voters office reports that there are 51,757 outstanding vote by mail ballots and another 1,671 provisional ballots yet to be counted.

Note that these are not Benicia ballots, but countywide. I’m working on a method of estimating the percentage of the 53,000 outstanding ballots that are Benicia voters.

It does seem to me completely possible to gain 57 votes out of over 53,000 county-wide.

Solano County Registrar John Gardner stated in an email that the County “will update totals at end of business day each day until complete, and will update these outstanding ballot numbers” daily at https://www.solanocounty.com/depts/rov/November_8_2022_Election_Results/election_results.asp. “The County is scheduled to certify our results on November 30th,” Gardner said.

In an earlier post, I was too quick to presume the outcome of the election, bemoaning that we would likely have an all-male Council when the vote was finalized.

Stay tuned – I’ll keep you posted here.