New Death Count Projections for Bakken Oil Train Disasters?
By Ron Schalow, January 13, 2015
Firefighters, Emergency Personnel, Lawmakers, and Media:
Last June (2014), North Dakota Governor Jack Dalrymple called disaster agencies and emergency personnel together for a “tabletop exercise” to practice a response to a possible Bakken oil train derailment, and the subsequent explosions. They estimated there would be more than 60 deaths if such an incident occurred in Bismarck, ND (65,000 pop.) or Fargo, ND (110,000 pop.). http://www.prairiebizmag.com/event/article/id/19629/ http://news.prairiepublic.org/…/inside-energy-making-bakken…
I don’t know the times, locations, or other variables, in the exercise calculations, but I can envision places in Bismarck and Fargo where the death count might be zero at certain times of the day. I could also think of cases, especially in downtown Fargo, when thousands would be in the blast zone.
There were 47 deaths in Lac-Megantic (6,000 pop.) after a Bakken oil train derailed on July 6, 2013. Dozens of downtown buildings were incinerated, but due to the late hour, most of the people who died were assembled at one place of business. http://www.bing.com/videos/search…
“This order will bring every barrel of Bakken crude within standards to improve the safety of oil for transport,” said Governor Jack Dalrymple, Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem and Agriculture Commissioner Doug Goehring, in a joint statement.
Considering the improved safety, North Dakota officials should have updated projections of fatalities for Fargo and Bismarck. They would know the June variables and the change in composition of the contents of the tanker cars, due to the new Order. You could extrapolate the information to predict the deaths and damage for your community.
What’s the new number for casualties? These people should know…
North Dakota Industrial Commission
701-328-3722
ndicinfo@nd.gov
Governor Dalrymple’s Chief of Staff
Ron Rauschenberger
701-328-2222
rrausche@nd.gov
Governor Dalrymple’s Director and Policy Advisor
Jeff Zent
701-328-2424
jlzent@nd.gov
Lynn D. Helms, Director
Department of Mineral Resources
701-328-8020
lhelms@nd.gov
Oil and Gas Division
701-328-8020
oilandgasinfo@nd.gov
North Dakota Department of Emergency Services
701-328-8100
nddes@nd.gov
Cass County (Fargo) Emergency Management
Dave Rogness
701-476-4065
rognessd@casscountynd.gov
Fargo Fire Department
Steve Dirksen Fire Chief
701-241-1540
sdirksen@cityoffargo.com
Burleigh County (Bismarck) Emergency Management and Homeland Security
Mary H. Senger Emergency Manager
701-222-6727
msenger@nd.gov
Bismarck Emergency Management Division
Gary Stockert Emergency Manager
701-221-6804
gstockert@bismarcknd.gov
Bismarck Fire Department
Joel Boespflug Chief
jboespfl@bismarcknd.gov
Repost from National Public Radio (NPR) [Editor: This NPR report mentions that recent new North Dakota regulations require “conditioning” the oil. Note that the new rules fall short of calling for “stabilization” of the oil. See Ron Schalow’s comment, including “This conditioning lowers the ignition temperature of crude oil—but not by much. It leaves in solution most of the culprit gases, including butane and propane….The only solution for safety is stabilization, which evaporates and re-liquefies nearly all of the petroleum gases for separate delivery to refiners. Stabilization is voluntarily and uniformly practiced in the Eagle Ford formation in Texas…” – RS]
Fiery Accident Spurs Safer Rail Transport For Crude Oil
Morning Edition, December 30, 2014
It’s been one year since an oil train derailment outside Casselton, N.D. Since then, state and federal regulators have taken steps to make it safer to transport crude by rail.
Bakken outlook: Oil industry faces hurdles in 2015
By Mike Nowatzki, Dec 26, 2014
BISMARCK — With oil prices slipping to their lowest point in more than five years, new state regulations slated to take effect and lawmakers proposing major investments in oil country, 2015 is shaping up to be a critical year for the oil and gas industry in North Dakota.
Here’s a look at some of the top issues.
New rules resonate
Rules adopted by the North Dakota Industrial Commission in 2014 will continue to resonate in 2015.
Gas capture goals adopted in July will require operators to reduce the percentage of natural gas flared from oil wells to 23 percent by Jan. 1 and to 15 percent by 2016.
Statewide, operators already met the first goal of 26 percent by Oct. 1, beating it by 4 percentage points.
But eight individual operators didn’t meet the gas capture goal, and several postponed completion work on wells to achieve the goal, Department of Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms said.
North Dakota Petroleum Council President Ron Ness said substantial amounts of gas are being “held hostage” in negotiations over pipeline easements. He estimated well over one-third of the flared gas is the result of three or four easement hang-ups on private, tribal and federal lands.
“Those few bottlenecks are holding up a substantial amount of connections,” he said.
Oil conditioning required
Starting April 1, oil conditioning rules adopted by the Industrial Commission this month will require operators to use equipment to separate butane, propane and other volatile gases from crude oil, and to run the equipment within certain temperatures and pressures to lower the oil’s vapor pressure to 13.7 pounds per square inch.
State officials say the rules will improve the safety of crude-by-rail shipments. Critics contend they’ll do little to prevent the kind of explosive train derailments that spurred their creation.
Ness said the Petroleum Council was amenable to safety standards based on science but “we adamantly objected to the micromanagement” maintained in the final order. Some companies will have to make substantial investments in well-site equipment and testing required by the rules, he said, noting one operator believes their cost could range from $10 million to $20 million.
Requiring the equipment to be installed during the winter months so it’s ready by April 1 also was “a significant misstep,” he said.
“Operators are already in the process of figuring out what they need to do on each of their facilities to come into compliance, but I think we’re pretty frustrated with the process,” he said.
Price uncertainty high
Continued lower oil prices will make some drilling activity less profitable in emerging and mature oil plays, but prices are expected to remain high enough in 2015 to support new drilling in the major shale areas in North Dakota and Texas, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its short-term energy outlook Dec. 9.
The outlook forecasts average spot prices of $68 per barrel for Brent crude and $63 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude in 2015, with lower prices early in the year, the EIA said, citing “high uncertainty” in the price outlook.
Helms is optimistic prices will recover, calling the recent decline “a blip.”
Ness said the industry doesn’t see it that way, noting most analysts are predicting the price slump could last eight to 16 months or even one to two years as U.S. supply stays strong, global demand remains weak and OPEC continues to challenge U.S. production.
“We don’t know what the new normal for oil prices is going to be,” he said. “We’re in an energy war.”
North Dakota light sweet crude oil has dropped below $40 a barrel.
And while some barrels are hedged, “by and large, we’re probably taking $60 less a barrel than we were six months ago,” Ness said.
As a result, companies will deploy less capital and idle drilling rigs or move them from fringe areas to higher-producing areas, he said.
If low prices continue into February and March, “We’re going to see substantial reduction in exploration activity,” he said.
Helms said falling oil prices, oil conditioning and flaring reduction were factors in North Dakota’s drilling rig count dropping by 10 to 183 as of Dec. 12. He expects a 40- to 50-rig reduction by mid-2015 because of soft oil prices.
Oil tax reform?
Efforts to change North Dakota’s oil tax structure failed during the 2013 legislative session, and it remains to be seen whether similar proposals will surface when the Legislature convenes Jan. 6.
Sen. Dwight Cook, R-Mandan, chairman of the Senate Finance and Taxation Committee, introduced a bill last session that would have ended a series of 10 tax incentives designed to help draw oil companies to the state and keep them viable, while lowering the oil extraction tax from 6.5 percent to 4.5 percent for wells built after 2017. The bill failed in the House, as did an oil tax reform bill sponsored by Rep. Roscoe Streyle, R-Minot.
“I will not be introducing any similar legislation this session, and I haven’t heard of anybody else who has,” Cook said Tuesday. “But I guess I wouldn’t be surprised to see something.”
Trying to get rid of incentives – including reductions and exemptions to the extraction tax that take effect when the price of crude drops below a “trigger price” for five consecutive months – could be a tough sell with oil prices as low as they are, Cook said.
“You need to do that when there are high prices,” he said.
Ness said the Petroleum Council doesn’t plan to push any oil tax reform legislation.
“We fully expect that we’re going to sit back and utilize those incentives if they come,” he said.
Legislative proposals
Elected leaders have unveiled big spending proposals to address infrastructure, housing and other needs in oil-impacted areas of western North Dakota.
Chief among them is Gov. Jack Dalrymple’s budget recommendation to increase the share of oil production tax revenue being sent back to oil producing counties from 25 percent to 60 percent for the 2015-17 biennium, while lowering the state’s share from 75 percent to 40 percent. Senate Majority Leader Rich Wardner, R-Dickinson, is spearheading a similar proposal.
The adjusted formula would generate $1.7 billion for the counties and their political subdivisions, or $1 billion more than what the region is expected to receive this biennium, Dalrymple has said.
The governor also wants lawmakers to fast-track $873 million in “jump-start” funding so the state’s oil and gas region can get a head start on construction projects next spring. He’s also recommending $119 million in Energy Impact Grant funds.
Radioactive waste
Several illegal dumping incidents reported in 2014 focused attention on proper disposal of filter socks and other radioactive oilfield waste.
The North Dakota Department of Health has proposed rules that would increase the limit of radioactivity from 5 picocuries per gram to 50, allowing companies to dump the waste at special oilfield waste landfills and industrial waste landfills instead of having to haul it out of state. Companies also would be required to keep manifests to track the waste.
A public comment period is open until Jan. 31, and the approval process is expected to take several months. The Legislature’s Administrative Rules Committee must approve the rules.
“That’s going to get a lot of discussion,” Cook said.
Producers in North Dakota’s Bakken oil fields have been told to make crude is safer before being shipped by rail
By Chris Sorensen, December 10, 2014
After years of insisting oil sucked from North Dakota’s Bakken shale wasn’t inherently dangerous, producers have been ordered to purge the light, sweet crude of highly flammable substances before loading it on railcars and shipping it through towns and cities across the continent.
State regulators said this week that the region’s crude will first need to be treated, using heat or pressure, to remove more volatile liquids and gases. The idea, according to North Dakota’s Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms, wasn’t to render the oil incapable of being ignited, but merely more stable in preparation for transport.
It’s the latest regulatory response to a frightening series of fiery train crashes that stretches back to the summer of 2013. That’s when a runaway train laden with Bakken crude jumped the tracks in Lac-Mégantic, Que., and killed 47 people in a giant fireball. In the accident’s immediate aftermath, many experts struggled to understand how a train full of crude oil could ignite so quickly and violently. It had never happened before.
Subsequent studies have shown that Bakken crude, squeezed from shale rock under high pressure through a process known as hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” can indeed have a high gas content and vapour pressure, as well as lower flash and boiling points. However, there remains disagreement about whether the levels are unusual for oil extracted from shale, and whether the classifications for shipping it should be changed.
Still, with more than one million barrels of oil being moved by rail from the region each day, regulators have decided to err on the side of caution and implement additional safety measures. For producers, that means buying new equipment that can boil off propane, butane and other volatile natural gases. Under the new rules, the Bakken crude will not be allowed to have a vapour pressure greater than 13.7 lb. per square inch, about the same as for standard automobile gasoline. Regulators estimate that about 80 per cent of Bakken oil already meets these requirements.
The industry isn’t pleased. It continues to argue that Bakken oil is no more dangerous than other forms of light, sweet crude, and is, therefore, being unfairly singled out. It has also warned that removing volatile liquids and gasses from Bakken crude would result in the creation of a highly concentrated, highly volatile product that would still have to be shipped by rail—not to mention additional greenhouse-gas emissions. It goes without saying that meeting the new rules will also cost producers money—at a time when oil prices are falling.
In the meantime, regulators on both sides of the border are taking steps to boost rail safety by focusing on lower speed limits, new brake requirements and plans to phase out older, puncture-prone oil tank cars. Earlier this year, Transport Minister Lisa Raitt said Canada would be “leading the continent” on the phase-out of older DOT-111 tank cars, which have been linked to fiery crashes going back 25 years. There are about 65,000 of the cars in service in North America, about a third of which can be found in Canada.
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