All posts by Roger Straw

Editor, owner, publisher of The Benicia Independent
Coronavirus, Covid 19, Hospitalizations, Solano County CA

Uptick in COVID-19 hospitalizations in Solano County, 2 youth hospitalized

[Note that Solano County publishes a DAILY update, and displays past weeks and months in epidemic curve charts.  However, the curve charts do not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  This methodology is accurate in a way, but it misleads the public by consistently displaying a recent downward curve which is often corrected upward on a later date. For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Thursday, August 13: 120 new cases overnight, no new deaths.  Since the outbreak started: 4,534 cases, 41 deaths.
Compare previous report, Wednesday Aug. 12:

Summary

  • Solano County reported 120 new cases today, total of 4,534 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 7 days, Solano reported 575 new cases, an average of 82 per day.
  • Deaths – no new deaths today, total of 41 deaths.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 84 more ACTIVE cases today, total of 315, back to mid-July levels.  Note that only 37 of these 315 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  I’ve been wondering for several weeks now… is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who will research this?  (See SF Chronicle report on contact tracing in Bay Area – “Solano County did not respond”.)
  • Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons increased by 1 today, total of 38.  However, the total number hospitalized since the outbreak started increased significantly, adding 19, total of 195.  Seemingly, 19 were admitted and 18 were discharged?  (The County no longer reports Total Hospitalized, but I can add the new hospitalization numbers in the Age Group report – see below.)  Again now for a third week, the County offers no information about availability of ICU beds and ventilators.
  • Testing – The County reports today that 1,612 more residents were tested, new total of 61,870.  We still have a long way to go: only 13.8% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Percent Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today’s 7-day percent positive test rate rose from 4.1% Tuesday to 4.4% Wednesday and to 5.4% today.  Solano had never registered below 5% since the County began publicly reporting test rates on July 13. (Note that the positive test rate graphic chart may be misleading – see NOTE at top of this page.)  The County posted a high of 9.3% on July 22.  CONTEXT: Health officials and news reports focus on percent positive test rates as one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The California 7-day rate was reported today at 6.7%.

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – an uptick of 15 new cases today, total of 456 cases. AND… for the first time since July 6, Solano County is reporting new hospitalizations among this very young age group: 2 new hospitalizations, a total of 4 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Still thankfully, no deaths.  It is clear that our young people are catching the disease, some have required hospitalization, and it seems too many youth are ignoring public health orders.  Cases among Solano youth are 10% of the 4,534 total confirmed cases.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 73 new cases today, total of 2,776 cases.  This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents over 61% of the 4,534 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported 9 new hospitalizations in this age group today, the highest single-day increase so far, now totaling 57 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths among this age group, total of 3 deaths.  This young to middle age group is very active.  Some are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect his group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 23 new cases today, total of 866 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 4,534 total cases.  The County reported 2 new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 57 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths among this age group, total of 4 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 9 new cases today, total of 435 cases.  This age group represents 9.6% of the 4,534 total cases.  6 new hospitalizations today, total of 77 hospitalized since the outbreak began.   No new deaths in this age group today, total of 34.  In this older age group, almost 18% of cases required hospitalization at one time, a substantially higher percentage than in the lower age groups.  This group accounts for 34 of the 41 deaths, or 83%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 4 new cases today, total of 108 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 17 new cases today, total of 296 cases.
  • Fairfield added 26 new cases today, total of 1,436.
  • Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 32 cases.
  • Suisun City added 5 new cases today, total of 330 cases.
  • Vacaville added 25 new cases today, total of 777 cases.
  • Vallejo added 43 (!) new cases today, total of 1,539 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas – Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 16 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  There are also tabs showing a calculated rate per 100,000 by race/ethnicity for each of these boxes.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  As of today:

  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 21% of cases, 24% of hospitalizations and 24% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 13% of cases, but 20% of hospitalizations, and 27% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 27% of cases, 33% of hospitalizations, and 24% of deaths.
  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases and 13% of hospitalizations, but 16% of deaths.

Much more…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

2020 Presidential campaigns, California Sen. Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, President Joe Biden

Today’s funnies – Go Joe and Kamala!!

Here in Benicia we LOVE Kamala Harris!! …and oh, yeah, Joe Biden!

By subscription, Cagle.com
KAMALA HARRIS PICK
BY ADAM ZYGLIS, THE BUFFALO NEWS, NY
NASTY KAMALA
BY STEVE SACK, THE MINNEAPOLIS STAR-TRIBUNE, MN
TRUMP EXECUTIVE ORDERS
BY NATE BEELER, COUNTERPOINT
EVICTION NOTICES
BY DAVE GRANLUND, POLITICALCARTOONS.COM
Bay Area Refineries, Biofuels, Fossil fuels, Marathon Petroleum, Neste, Phillips 66, Phillips 66 Nipomo Mesa refinery, Pollution credits, Renewable fuels, Valero

Another Bay Area refinery shutting down fossil fuel production – Phillips 66 in Rodeo

Phillips 66 is turning a California oil refinery into a biofuel plant

Phillips 66 said its Rodeo refinery near San Francisco will make fuel from used cooking oil, fats, greases and soybean oils. Above, a taco shell, dripping oil, emerges from a deep fryer. (Barbara Davidson / Los Angeles Times)
Los Angeles Times, by Bloomberg, August 12, 2020

Phillips 66 has become the latest in a string of U.S. refiners to announce plans to convert an oil refinery into a biofuel plant.

The company said Wednesday that its 120,000 barrel-a-day Rodeo refinery near San Francisco will become the world’s biggest plant that makes so-called renewable diesel, as well as gasoline and jet fuel, out of used cooking oil, fats, greases and soybean oils.

The announcement came about a week after Marathon Petroleum Corp. said that it may convert two refineries into renewable diesel plants. In June, HollyFrontier Corp. said it would turn its Cheyenne, Wyo., refinery into a renewable diesel plant by 2022.

As refiners across the U.S. struggle with depressed fuel demand amid the pandemic, California’s low-carbon fuel trading scheme may represent a pathway for survival. Demand for so-called renewable diesel is surging in the Golden State as refiners buy increasing numbers of credits under the low-carbon fuel standard program, which aims to cut vehicle emissions 20% by 2030.

“There is overcapacity on the refining market,” Marijn van der Wal, biofuel advisor at Stratas Advisors in Singapore, said in an interview Wednesday. “Are we going to shut down our refineries or are we going to repurpose them?”

Renewable diesel is chemically identical to diesel derived from fossil fuels, according to Neste Oyj, the word’s biggest producer of the fuel.

The LCFS credits as well as federal RIN D5 credits and recently reintroduced Blenders Tax Credits generate about $3.32 a gallon in subsidies for renewable diesel producers, enough to cover production costs, Van der Wal said in a June report.

“It’s a mind-boggling amount of money,” he said by phone. “You will make a lot of money as long as all these subsidies come in.”

Find out why the smallest details can be the most important.
The Rodeo plant could start operating as early as 2024, producing 680 million gallons a year of renewable diesel, gasoline and jet fuel, the company said. Combined with production from an existing project in development, the plant would produce more than 800 million gallons a year. In addition to repurposing the Rodeo refinery, the company also announced it would be closing its 45,000-barrel-a-day plant in Santa Maria in 2023.

Last week, Marathon said it will convert its 166,000-barrel-a-day Martinez, Calif., refinery into a terminal facility and that may include a 48,000-barrel-a-day renewable diesel plant as soon as 2022. The company is turning its 19,000-barrel-a-day North Dakota plant into a renewable diesel plant by the end of this year.

The surge of new entrants into the California biofuel market is creating its own problems, Van der Wal said. Existing renewable diesel suppliers to California, including Neste and Valero Energy Corp., have locked up much of the feedstock, leaving less tallow and cooking oil for the newcomers. Additionally, so many projects are being proposed that there may not be enough diesel demand in California to absorb the additional fuel.

Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

COVID-19 still spreading in Solano County – 76 new cases, Benicia now over 100 infected

[Note that Solano County publishes a DAILY update, and displays past weeks and months in epidemic curve charts.  However, the curve charts do not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  This methodology is accurate in a way, but it misleads the public by consistently displaying a recent downward curve which is often corrected upward on a later date. For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Wednesday, August 12: 76 new cases today, no new deaths.  Since the outbreak started: 4,414 cases, 41 deaths.
Compare previous report, Tuesday August 11:

Summary

  • Solano County reported 76 new cases today, total of 4,414 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 7 days, Solano reported 530 new cases, an average of 76 per day.
  • Deaths – no new deaths today, total of 41 deaths.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 10 more ACTIVE cases today, total of 231.  Note that only 37 of these 231 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  I’ve been wondering for several weeks now… is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who will research this?  (See SF Chronicle report on contact tracing in Bay Area – “Solano County did not respond”.)
  • Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons remained steady today, total of 37.  However, the total number hospitalized since the outbreak started gained 1, total of 176.  (The County no longer reports Total Hospitalized, but I can add the new hospitalization numbers in the Age Group report – see below.)  Again now for a third week, the County offers no information about availability of ICU beds and ventilators.
  • Testing – The County reports today that 804 more residents were tested, new total of 60,258.  We still have a long way to go: only 13.5% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Percent Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today’s 7-day percent positive test rate rose from 4.1% yesterday to 4.4 today.  Solano had never registered below 5% since the County began publicly reporting test rates on July 13. (Note that the positive test rate graphic chart may be misleading – see NOTE at top of this page.)  The County posted a high of 9.3% on July 22.  CONTEXT: Health officials and news reports focus on percent positive test rates as one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The California 7-day rate has been falling, but is reported up today from 6.2% to  6.9%.

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 8 new cases today, total of 441 cases. No new hospitalizations, only 2 hospitalizations since the outbreak began, and no deaths.  It is clear that youth are catching the disease, and it seems too many youth are ignoring public health orders.  Cases among Solano youth have increased to 10% of the 4,414 total confirmed cases.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 46 new cases today, total of 2,703 cases.  This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents over 61% of the 4,414 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 48 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths among this age group, total of 3 deaths.  This young to middle age group is very active.  Some are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect his group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 14 new cases today, total of 843 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 4,414 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 55 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths among this age group, total of 4 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 8 new cases today, total of 426 cases.  This age group represents 9.7% of the 4,414 total cases.  1 new hospitalization today, total of 71 hospitalized since the outbreak began.   No new deaths in this age group today, total of 34.  In this older age group, almost 17% of cases required hospitalization at one time, a substantially higher percentage than in the lower age groups.  This group accounts for 34 of the 41 deaths, or 83%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 5 new cases today, totaling over 100 for the first time, 104 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 11 new cases today, total of 279 cases.
  • Fairfield added 16 new cases today, total of 1,410.
  • Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 32 cases.
  • Suisun City added 4 new cases today, total of 325 cases.
  • Vacaville added 10 new cases today, total of 752 cases.
  • Vallejo added 29 new cases today, total of 1,496 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas – Unincorporated areas added 1 new cases today, total of 16 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  There are also tabs showing a calculated rate per 100,000 by race/ethnicity for each of these boxes.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  As of today:

  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 22% of cases, 23% of hospitalizations and 24% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 13% of cases, but 21% of hospitalizations, and 27% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 27% of cases, 32% of hospitalizations, and 24% of deaths.
  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases and 12% of hospitalizations, but 16% of deaths.

Much more…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.