Tag Archives: Solano County CA

Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Solano COVID update: 2 more deaths, test rate rises again

[For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Monday, September 28: 91 new cases over the weekend, no new hospitalizations, 2 deaths.  Since the outbreak began: 6,400 cases, 389 hospitalized, 65 deaths.Compare previous report, Friday, Sept 25:Summary

  • Solano County reported 91 new cases today, total of 6,400 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 2 weeks, Solano reported 463 new cases, average of 33 per day.
  • Deaths – RECENT SPIKE: 8 new deaths reported last week and 2 new deaths today, total of 65 Solano deaths.  Both new deaths were persons 65 years or older.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 26 fewer ACTIVE cases today, total of 243.  Note that only 16 of these 243 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons dropped by 5 today, total of only 16.  The total number hospitalized since the outbreak started remained steady today, total of 389. (See age group hospitalization stats below).
  • ICU Beds –The County reported 55% of ICU beds available, up 5% today.  (After 8 weeks, still no information about availability of ventilators.)
  • Testing – The County reports today that 1,413 residents were tested over the weekend, new total of 88,202.  Solano has a long way to go: only 19.7% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate rose dramatically today from 3.9% to 5.3%.  Our supposedly smooth 7-day moving average has jumped all over the place recently (see note about delayed adjustments below).  For the record, just three weeks ago we saw Solano rates above 7% for the first time since we peaked at 9.3% on July 22.  Then two weeks ago we bottomed out at 2.7%.  The County’s line graph for positive test rate looks like a flat line and tells us absolutely nothing, not worth posting here.  Health officials and news reports focus on percent positive test rates as one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much lower and more stable California
7-day test rate rose slightly today, from 2.8% to 2.9%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 13 new cases over the weekend, total of 714 cases, representing 11.2% of the 6,400 total cases.  No new hospitalizations among this age group today, a total of 6 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths.  In recent weeks it seems too many youth are ignoring public health orders.  Cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained around 11% since then.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: 1) youth numbers have increased steadily and at a faster rate than the other age groups, and 2) youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 6 youth have now been hospitalized.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 53 new cases over the weekend, total of 3,836 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 129 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this young age group today, total of 5 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect his group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 19 new cases over the weekend, total of 1,216 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 6,400 total cases.  No new hospitalizations today, total of 104 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 13 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – Today the County reported 6 new cases, total of 633.  No new hospitalizations, total of 150.  2 new deaths, total of 47 of our elders who died of COVID.  Much of the recent spike in this age group may be related to an outbreak at the Parkrose Gardens Alzheimer’s and Dementia care facility in Fairfield, where 31 patients and 8 staff were reported on September 15 to have tested positive.  This age group’s 633 cases represent 9.9% of the 6,400 total cases.  In this older age group, 23.7% of cases required hospitalization at one time.  This group accounts for 47 of the 65 deaths, or 72%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 2 new cases today, total of 167 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 4 new cases today, total of 417 cases.
  • Fairfield added 23 new cases today, total of 2,079 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 4 new cases today, total of 52 cases.
  • Suisun City added 7 new cases today, total of 468 cases.
  • Vacaville added 18 new cases today, total of 1,074 cases.
  • Vallejo added 33 new cases today, total of 2,123 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 20 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinex members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 20% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 23% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 30% of cases, 30% of hospitalizations, and 20% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 21% of cases, 26% of hospitalizations and 26% of deaths.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Coronavirus, Covid 19, Hospitalizations, Solano County CA, Solano County Health Officer Bela Matyas

Solano County does not have reliable information on each day’s new COVID hospitalizations

Dr. Matyas responds to my request for daily updates on TOTAL hospitalizations since the pandemic began

By Roger Straw, September 28, 2020
Background
Roger Straw, The Benicia Independent

On September 24, I wrote to Dr. Bela Matyas, asking him to restore a TOTAL count of COVID hospitalizations since the pandemic began:

Please consider this request:  From the earliest days of the pandemic and through July 10, the County’s COVID dashboard showed Total Hospitalizations.

Beginning on July 13, the dashboard only shows Current Hospitalizations.  The daily change in Current Hospitalizations must be the difference between admissions and discharges, plus or minus, which is important to know.

However, the public needs to also know how many NEW admissions on a daily basis in order to accurately understand spread.  This can easily be seen in the daily update of Total Hospitalizations.

Please consider restoring Total Hospitalizations to the COVID dashboard.

Dr. Matyas sent the following reply on September 27:
Dr. Bela Matyas, Solano County Public Health Officer

“The daily change in total hospitalizations does not faithfully represent new hospitalizations; the majority of added hospitalizations day over day is from reconciliation of previously hospitalized cases that we learn about in arrears. It is likely to be a substantially under-reported number.

Hospitalization is not a reportable condition on an individual level; hospital capacity is the condition that we are monitoring, and total hospitalizations per day is the relevant metric. Reporting total hospitalizations to date on a daily basis would be a misleading indicator for tracking new hospitalizations both because of the timing of reports and the under-reporting of hospitalizations.”

My response today:

Dr. Matyas – Thank you for your response to my email. With respect, I think I disagree. Regardless whether a daily update of TOTAL hospitalizations since the outbreak began includes ONLY new hospitalizations TODAY or both new TODAY and “newly learned in arrears” hospitalizations, the metric of total hospitalizations (and a 7 or 14 day average graph showing the curve of that metric) would be of great significance in understanding the overall spread of the most serious cases.

This daily increase, whether learned in arrears or not, is important for the public’s awareness. MOST IMPORTANTLY, reporting on hospitalizations in this way might help in cautioning the public to take seriously the continuing need for masks, social distancing, hand washing, etc. As our public health officer, I’d hope you might stop and think about this again. Seems it wouldn’t hurt the cause at all to add this metric to the County’s COVID dashboard, and shouldn’t be too hard to calculate the data as I have been doing, working from the AGE GROUP data.

I will continue to add together the newly reported daily reported increase of hospitalizations in the AGE GROUP data in order to determine the daily increase in TOTAL hospitalizations. And I will continue to let the public know.

Roger Straw
Benicia

Click the image for Solano County COVID-19 Updates and Resources
Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Solano COVID report on Fri. Sept 25: 31 new cases, 5 new hospitalizations, no new deaths

[For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.] [Please note that some of the numbers of new deaths and hospitalizations this past week may not actually be new.  The Fairfield Daily Reporter, quoting Dr. Matyas, is reported that some of the deaths reported Wednesday were updating discrepancies in reporting from last summer.  Dr. Matyas confirmed in an email to me on Thursday that some of the spike in hospitalizations are also adjustments rather than new hospitalizations.  No information as yet as to how many are new and how many are old.  Regardless, these illnesses and deaths are still serious, sad and disturbing…  – R.S.]

Friday, September 25: 31 new cases overnight, 5 hospitalizations, no deaths.  Since the outbreak began: 6,309 cases, 389 hospitalized, 63 deaths.Compare previous report, Thursday, Sept 24:Summary

  • Solano County reported 31 new cases today, total of 6,309 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 7 days, Solano reported 224 new cases, average of 32 per day.
  • Deaths – RECENT SPIKE: 3 new deaths reported yesterday, 3 the day before, and another 2 the day before that, total of 63 Solano deaths.  Thankfully, no new deaths reported today.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 7 fewer ACTIVE cases today, total of 269.  Note that only 21 of these 269 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons remained at 21 today.  However, the total number hospitalized since the outbreak started increased by 5 today, total of 389, an increase of 73 in just the last week. (see age group hospitalization stats below).
  • ICU Beds –The County reported 50% of ICU beds available, same as yesterday and down from 56% a  week ago Monday.  (After 7 weeks, still no information about availability of ventilators.)
  • Testing – The County reports today that 591 residents were tested today, new total of 86,789.  Solano has a long way to go: only 19.4% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate remained steady today at 3.9%.  Our supposedly smooth 7-day moving average has jumped all over the place recently (see note about delayed adjustments below).  For the record, just two weeks ago we saw Solano rates above 7% for the first time since we peaked at 9.3% on July 22.  Week before last we bottomed out at 2.7%.  The County’s line graph for positive test rate looks like a flat line and tells us absolutely nothing, not worth posting here.  Health officials and news reports focus on percent positive test rates as one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much more stable California’s relatively stable 7-day test rate remained at it’s lowest point, 2.8% for the 5th consecutive day today.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 5 new cases today, total of 701 cases, representing 11.1% of the 6,309 total cases.  No new hospitalizations among this age group today, a total of 6 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths.  In recent weeks it seems too many youth are ignoring public health orders.  Cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained around 11% since then.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: 1) youth numbers have increased steadily and at a faster rate than the other age groups, and 2) youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 6 youth have now been hospitalized.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 20 new cases today, total of 3,783 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported 2 new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 129 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this young age group today, total of 5 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect his group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 3 new cases today, total of 1,197 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 6,309 total cases.
    No new hospitalizations today, total of 104 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 13 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – Today the County reported 3 new cases, total of 627, 3 new hospitalizations, total of 150.  Thankfully, no new deaths, total of 45 of our elders who died of COVID.  Much of the recent spike in this age group may be related to an outbreak at the Parkrose Gardens Alzheimer’s and Dementia care facility in Fairfield, where 31 patients and 8 staff were reported on September 15 to have tested positive.  This age group’s 627 cases represent 9.9% of the 6,309 total cases.  In this older age group, 23.9% of cases required hospitalization at one time.  This group accounts for 45 of the 63 deaths, or 71%.

City Data

  • Benicia remained steady today, total of 165 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon remained steady today, total of 413 cases.
  • Fairfield added 5 new cases today, total of 2,056 cases.
  • Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 48 cases.
  • Suisun City added 3 new cases today, total of 461 cases.
  • Vacaville added 4 new cases today, total of 1,056 cases.
  • Vallejo added 19 new cases today, total of 2,090 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 20 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinex members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 24% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 31% of cases, 30% of hospitalizations, and 21% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 21% of cases, 26% of hospitalizations and 25% of deaths.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

#VOTE, 2020 elections, 2020 Presidential campaigns, Solano County Registrar of Voters, Vote by Mail

Solano is mailing your ballot to you on Sept 26 – Benicia, Vallejo, Fairfield, Vacaville, Suisun City, Rio Vista, Dixon

By Roger Straw, Friday, September 25, 2020

When and how to VOTE EARLY!

In an email yesterday evening, Assistant Solano County Registrar of Voters John Gardner confirmed that “ballots are being mailed on Saturday 9/26.”  Gardner added, “All ballots will be delivered to the post office at the same time for delivery.”

In years past, we might then assume that our ballots would arrive in our mailboxes on Monday, September 28.  Given recent national stories about post office slow deliveries, we will have to watch and see.

Three ways to return your ballot early! (…and then there’s November 3)

  • Cast your ballot RIGHT AWAY: Mail it back on the same day you get it, maybe Monday or Tuesday, September 28 or 29.  Return it ANYTIME via US Postal Service (postage paid).
  • If you wait a week, you can drop it off in person beginning Monday, October 5: There are 15 NO CONTACT DROP BOXES (inside office buildings).  Here’s the list on the Solano County website, including City Clerks’ offices in all 7 Solano cities.
  • I hope you don’t wait until October 29, but if you do… There are 10 NO CONTACT CURBSIDE DROP-OFF LOCATIONS.  For 5 days before election day, beginning on Thursday October 29, and continuing on Oct. 30, 31, Nov. 2 and Nov. 3, you can drop off ballots “Curbside.”  (Stay in your car, hand ballot to pollworkers.)  Here’s the list of at least one in each city, on the County website.
  • And there’s 4 options on ELECTION DAY, Tuesday, November 3:
    1. NOT RECOMMENDED: It’s still possible to mail your ballot.  If (and that’s a big IF) the post office postmarks it on Nov. 3, it will be valid and counted.  Please DON’T do this!  I wouldn’t mail my ballot at all, but if you must, I’d say do it at least 2 weeks prior to election day – by October 20.
    2. The office building drop-off locations will still be available.  List of locations.
    3. The curbside drop-off locations will still be available.  List of locations.
    4. And there’s the good old In-Person voting at your local polling place.  Your polling place location will be printed on your ballot.  Note that some polling places may have changed since the last election.  To plan ahead, here is the County’s list of 100 polling places.  Better yet, to look up your location using your home address, go to this page on the County website: solanocounty.com/depts/rov/sample_ballot_polling_place_lookup.asp

Roger Straw, The Benicia Independent

Oh, and on a personal note… I am clearly encouraging everyone to vote for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.  Donald Trump is unfit in so many ways, a disaster already, and a threat to our democracy if returned for another 4 years.  Dems, GOPs and Independents please unite and do the right thing – Trump and Trumpism have got to go in a landslide victory for Biden/Harris!