Category Archives: A Promised Land

Stephen Golub: The U.S. has a mixed record of promoting American-style democracy abroad

[Note from BenIndy Contributor Nathalie Christian: While I think all of Steve’s posts are well worth the time it takes to read them, I really encourage everyone to sit down with this one, especially because we’re still very close to Independence Day. The seeding, care and feeding of democracy abroad is a complicated undertaking at the best of times. Keeping it alive and thriving in our own garden has become a surprisingly fraught enterprise, too. Steve’s thoughtful analysis of what has and hasn’t worked provides a reasonable framework for the cultivated endurance of democracy and, perhaps more importantly, it provides at least me with very welcome hope.] 

This post was produced by Benicia resident Stephen Golub and originally appeared in the Washington Post‘s ‘Made by History’ section. Steve blogs about domestic and international politics and policy, including lessons that the United States can learn from other nations, at A Promised Land: America as a Developing Country. If interested, you may sign up for future posts by subscribing to the blog.

For 40 years, the U.S. government has ignored what sorts of democracy promotion work — and which ones don’t

Image uncredited.

By Stephen Golub, July 4, 2023

Benicia resident and author Stephen Golub, A Promised Land

As America celebrates Independence Day, we find our democracy not nearly as strong as we’d once thought. Authoritarian challenges threaten our institutions, our rights and the rule of law.

Ironically, this sobering reality confronts us after the United States, along with affluent allies, has devoted decades and massive resources to trying to build democracy in the world’s poorer and post-communist societies, including via rule of law, good governance, human rights and anti-corruption programs. With some exceptions — mostly centered on providing electoral assistance and fortifying civil society and media — these efforts have largely fallen flat. Data from Freedom Housethe World Bank and the World Justice Project confirm the decline in democracy and associated fields across the globe.

Why the widespread failure? First, we hubristically bit off more than we could chew. The United States mistakenly assumed that foreign aid for training and equipping recipient nations’ government institutions could overcome the deep-seated political, historical, economic and cultural forces permeating them and could thus build democracies in our image.

Second, in focusing most democracy aid on such government institution-building, the United States put a relative paucity of resources into nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and other civil society forces that modestly but more effectively strengthen specific policies, processes and populations.

In some ways, the roots of this failure reach back to our experience in the Philippines at the outset of the 20th century. At that time, America’s imperialist endeavor drove the Spanish from the archipelago and brutally crushed an indigenous independence movement. During the next half-century, we built corrupt, elite-controlled government institutions instead of strengthening grass- roots participation in representative government. This became an unintentional template for our subsequent democracy-building abroad decades later.

That template became salient when, in the 1980s, a host of actors and factors combined to make democracy a U.S. foreign policy priority.

Providing political cover for its wars in Central America and right-wing allies throughout Latin America, the Reagan administration funded government-focused, ostensibly democracy-promoting programs in the region. The unfortunate upshot was, for example, partnering with human rights-violating governments on major and, ultimately, unsuccessful administration of justice initiatives to which officials in our partner nations were actually resistant or indifferent. Similarly flawed and government-focused U.S. democracy programs arose alongside backing for authoritarian Cold War allies elsewhere.

In a more promising development, the 1980s also saw bipartisan support for the new National Endowment for Democracy, new U.S. Agency for International Development projects and other U.S. initiatives that provided small grants to civil society and media initiatives around the world. But such funding was (and is) dwarfed by major USAID programs and related support for government institutions.

This funding disparity meant that, as the United States started pouring money into top-down programs geared toward building American-style government institutions abroad, it tended to downplay support for civil society programs that could directly benefit and strengthen populations poorly served by those institutions.

By contrast, various private funding sources prioritized civil society. The Ford Foundation, the Carnegie Corp. and other donors made grants to South African NGOs pursuing anti-apartheid legal activism. Financier George Soros began providing funds for innovators, budding democracy activists, journalists and international exchanges as Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union slowly started to liberalize. The partly U.S.-funded but private Asia Foundation supported Bangladeshi NGOs’ innovative local dispute resolution work. (I worked for the foundation elsewhere, and later evaluated and researched that work.)

These privately supported efforts exhibited promising results as they expanded their operations and impact in the 1990s. They contributed to significant health, housing and other victories in South Africa after the racist regime stepped down. Bangladeshi NGOs’ local dispute resolution models gathered steam — and support from additional donors and the Bangladeshi government itself — by ameliorating gender inequities and providing the poor with alternatives to a distant, corrupt and incomprehensible judicial system.

Around the world, both foundations and donor nations alike funded a growing array of NGOs featuring paralegals who, unlike those working in U.S. law offices, were typically community-based volunteers whom NGO attorneys trained and collaborated with. They advocated for and with their communities and fellow citizens to address health, housing, land, gender and other issues.

These programs thrived at the same moment that the United States and other affluent nations began pouring greatly expanded sums into seeding democracy worldwide in the wake of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Eastern European communist regimes and the Soviet Union. Books on “exporting democracy” — even presenting it as America’s destiny — assumed it was the wave of the future.

Yet, the United States ignored the success of the projects funded by foundations and clung to the notion that foreign aid to governments could secure dramatic democratic transformations. This partly stemmed from foreign policy priorities, including the post-Cold War perspective that fortifying U.S.-friendly capitalist democracies was in our own economic and political interest. But it also flowed from a bureaucratic reality: It was easier to secure funding in Washington for ambitious programs that promised to build up national ministries, legislatures and judiciaries than for local programs that worked with farmers, women or other disadvantaged groups.

Maintaining this unfortunate focus, George W. Bush linked his post-9/11 military and political programs to both defeating terrorism and installing democracy, stoking cynicism in many circles about that latter effort. Even if viewed in the most charitable light, U.S. democracy-building efforts in Afghanistan proved no match for the dominance of warlords and — as with some other aid recipient nations — entrenched corruption networks that permeated the government.

The past two decades have seen U.S. democracy aid flow and ebb, in response to such events as the Arab Spring and its demise. This aid has continued to feature a blend of foreign policy priorities, immense bureaucracy, hubris, cynicism and idealism. Its misplaced priorities have endured: Despite the documented success of paralegal programs, for example, many have suffered funding cutbacks from American and other sources.

All of this helps explain the mediocre record for U.S. democracy promotion: The United States has focused too much on working with change-resistant institutions and too little on supporting the civil society and media change agents that might gradually affect such institutions over the long haul. Even in the short term, these shortchanged programs have a record of helping citizens bring about concrete results — improving farmers’ land tenure, combating corruption, reducing violence against women, enhancing communities’ health or strengthening inputs into local governance, among other goals. They may not be as sexy as transforming a country’s government, but history indicates such programs actually work.

All told, the United States has poured about $100 billion into democracy aid over the past 40 years, mostly for large-scale, government-focused programs, often designed and implemented by international consulting firms.

However, despite far less funding, homegrown projects that draw on local knowledge — which foreign consultants and aid officials lack — and that help partner populations pursue economic, health, political or human rights priorities have proved far more successful.

In a related vein, U.S. support for free and fair elections — programs often carried out by American NGOs that provide election-oriented monitoring, advice and training — has yielded notable achievements. Such programs have protected electoral integrity in some instances and fueled successful drives to challenge corrupt results in others, including Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution.

With the exception of such dramatic electoral results, civil society support may not produce the seismic shifts that American officials seek. But neither has the top-down, institution-building approach that has fruitlessly gobbled up vast resources.

Authoritarians are strong until they’re not. History is littered with the downfalls of repressive regimes that once appeared firmly entrenched. Just recently, the world saw Vladimir Putin’s seemingly iron hold on power shaken by the corrupt forces he himself enabled.

Thus, the global pendulum may yet swing back toward democracy. Helping to make that happen, in however modest a manner, demands supporting the kinds of efforts that have worked in the past and rethinking those that have not.

These lessons apply at home as well. Even as we honor Independence Day, the health of our government institutions seems in question. But a vibrant civil society, a thriving free press and safeguarding elections can protect those institutions’ integrity, keeping the flames of political accountability burning and ensuring that our democracy endures.


This post was produced by Benicia resident Stephen Golub. Steve blogs about domestic and international politics and policy, including lessons that the United States can learn from other nations, at A Promised Land: America as a Developing Country. If interested, you may sign up for future posts by subscribing to the blog.

Read more from Steve by visiting his blog or clicking any of the links below.

POSTS FROM STEPHEN GOLUB:

Stephen Golub: The One Court That Will Decide Trump’s Fate

This post was produced by Benicia resident Stephen Golub. Steve blogs about domestic and international politics and policy, including lessons that the United States can learn from other nations, at A Promised Land: America as a Developing Country. If interested, you may sign up for future posts by subscribing to the blog.

The One Court That Will Decide Trump’s Fate

A US Courthouse in Lower Manhattan. | Image uncredited

It’s Not Any of the Usual Suspects

By Stephen Golub, July 3, 2023

Benicia resident and author Stephen Golub, A Promised Land

It seems like you can’t tell a Trump trial or investigation without a scorecard these days. There are dozens of them.

Regardless of what you think of him, you’d think that courts in Washington, Florida, Georgia or New York would determine Trump’s ultimate legal fate.

Think again.

Let’s Be Civil

To start with, two upcoming New York City trials are both noteworthy.

The New York State Attorney General’s suit against him for massive financial fraud is set for October. She’s seeking a $250 million fine and to bar him, his family and his firm from doing business in the state that serves as his headquarters.

Following the favorable verdict for E. Jean Carroll in May, in which she won a $5 million judgement against Trump for sexual abuse and defamation, he verbally slammed her for her victory. This in turn will be a focus of her related $10 million defamation suit against him, which is slated for trial in January.

However, as civil lawsuits, the fraud and Carroll cases don’t carry that ultimate penalty of potential imprisonment. There’s even the possibility of Trump raising enough funds from his followers to at least partly offset his financial penalties if found liable. Nonetheless…

The Current Criminal Cases

A threat of incarceration faces the ex-president, through two current criminal indictments.

There’s the Stormy Daniels hush money prosecution, brought by the Manhattan District Attorney in connection with Trump paying the adult film star on the cusp of the 2016 election, in return for her not revealing their affair. It starts next March in New York City.

Then there’s the pending trial most in the news recently: U.S. Department of Justice Special Counsel Jack Smith’s national security documents case, which will be held in Florida at some point. The DOJ has charged Trump with lying about and otherwise obstructing the return to the U.S. Government of classified materials.

As the indictment states, those papers pertain to “defense and weapons capabilities of both the United States and foreign countries; United States nuclear programs; potential vulnerabilities of the United States and its allies to military attack; and plans for possible retaliation in response to foreign attack.”

Furthermore, “The unauthorized disclosure of those classified documents could put at risk the national security of the United States, foreign relations, the safety of the United States military, and human sources and the continued viability of sensitive intelligence collection methods.”

Not exactly bathroom reading, eh? Though that’s where Trump reportedly stored some such items.

But Wait! There’s More!

Finally (for now, at least), there are two additional investigations which quite possibly will see Trump indicted this year.

It appears increasingly probable that, within the next several months, Special Counsel Smith will charge Trump in Washington, D.C. for activities connected to the January 6th insurrection or various other kinds of electoral interference pertaining to the 2020 election.

The Fulton County District Attorney, in Georgia, is expected to announce in August a decision regarding whether and whom to indict regarding 2020 electoral interference, possibly including multi-state racketeering chargesrelated to Trump pushing for the selection of “alternative electors” who could have subverted the Electoral College vote.

Image uncredited.

How Many Trials Was That?

From four to very possibly six major trials loom in Trump’s future.

Nonetheless, none of them seem likely to determine Trump’s legal fate and accountability in the most fundamental manner possible: whether he goes to prison. That decision rests in the hands of another court. Here’s why.

As I’ve noted, prison isn’t an option in a civil trial.

The New York hush money case is nothing to scoff at. But it’s arguably the toughest criminal case to win against him, and the one least likely to get him imprisoned even if he’s found guilty.

Instead, what becomes of Trump could conceivably hinge on the national security, insurrection and electoral theft trials that could consume much of next year. But whether the ultimate outcomes of those cases will actually be decided in Florida, Washington or Georgia courtrooms is another matter.

There already are indications that the national security documents case could be pushed back until after Election Day 2024. For one thing, the Trump-friendly judge presiding over the trial simply could decide to finalize the date for then or otherwise stymie the prosecution. For another, special considerations regarding national security trials also could delay the proceedings. And of course, there are the delaying tactics that Trump attorneys exploit in any litigation involving him.

The complexity of the potential, election-related federal and Georgia prosecutions could also delay the prosecutions of Trump for those crimes.

But such considerations are not the fundamental reasons why the courts hearing those cases might not decide Trump’s fate, unless of course they find him not guilty. This, it must be emphasized, is certainly possible. Such a verdict could be a legitimate outcome in a given case, as much as some might think or wish otherwise. Or, in a less legitimate vein, it could prove more probable by virtue of rulings that the Trumpist judge in the Florida documents trial could make.

Democracy in Action

But let’s put aside the potential “not guilty” outcomes for now.

Rather, Trump’s dodging the legal bullets rests on his getting re-elected (or perhaps another Republican winning in 2024, and then doing Trump some very big favors). Here’s how:

  • President Trump could in effect halt federal trials that haven’t started or been completed.
  • He could pardon himself if convicted.
  • He could similarly exert pressure to get a Georgia verdict in effect negated.

More specifically, Candidate Trump has made no secret of his plan to appoint an attorney general who will do his bidding, including halting a federal prosecution. If already convicted by the time he’s elected, he’ll seek to use his pardon power to spare himself.

Now, such scenarios are not a lock. Trump could of course lose the Republican nomination or the general election. A Democratic-controlled Senate could refuse to confirm his kind of compliant Attorney General, though that might only prove to be a stopgap measure. The Supreme Court could decide that a president can’t pardon himself. Many other twists and turns could take place.

Georgia on My Mind

But what about the potential Georgia case? It should be on our minds partly because the state prosecution there would not be controlled by the (potentially Trump-appointed) U.S. attorney general and a conviction there would not be subject to the possibility of a presidential pardon. But…

In May, Georgia’s governor signed into law the establishment of a commission with the power to remove local prosecutors who “refuse to uphold the law.”  There also is the possibility that a different Georgia law could be amended by the Republican-dominated state government to allow for a speedy state pardon of Trump even if he’s convicted.

Image uncredited.

The Court That Counts

So, both federal and state prosecutions could conceivably be halted, or their convictions effectively negated.

Which brings me back to my original point. As crucial as the actual and potential Trump trials are, they probably won’t ultimately determine whether he goes to prison. As much as we yearn for the rule of law to trump politics, these crucial outcomes might not be the product of what judges and juries decide.

Rather, Trump’s legal future hinges on the November 2024 election, and on all of the intensity that will entail. That’s so sobering for a nation that prides itself on its rule of law, on no person being above the law and on justice being beyond vote counts.

In other words, the crucial verdicts regarding these profoundly serious charges will not be decided by courts in Washington, Florida, Georgia or New York.

The verdicts will be rendered by the court of public opinion.


This post was produced by Benicia resident Stephen Golub. Steve blogs about domestic and international politics and policy, including lessons that the United States can learn from other nations, at A Promised Land: America as a Developing Country. If interested, you may sign up for future posts by subscribing to the blog.

Read more from Steve by visiting his blog or clicking any of the links below.

RECENT POSTS FROM STEPHEN GOLUB:

Stephen Golub: ‘We Got the [Bleep]!’ Trump Loses, Women & Justice Win

“We Got the Bastard!”

By Stephen Golub, May 11, 2023

S

Versions of this article have also appeared in Stephen Golub’s national and international affairs blog, A Promised Land: America as a Developing Country.

From Manila to Manhattan

Benicia resident and author Stephen Golub, A Promised Land

The same sentiments cross my mind as I reflect on the results of E. Jean Carroll’s case against Donald Trump. In the legal equivalent of a New York minute – less than three hours of deliberations – a Manhattan jury held him liable for sexual abuse and defamation.

Perhaps just as important: For the first time in his narcistic, bigotry-promoting, insurrection-igniting existence, Donald Trump has been held accountable.

Women and the justice system, two forces he’s spent his life thumbing his nose at (or worse, far worse) ushered in this accountability.

The $5 million fine awarded to Carroll can’t begin to compensate for the lifelong trauma Trump triggered through his sexual abuse. That trauma continued throughout the trial, as his lawyer’s brutish cross-examination featured such wince-worthy questions as asking her why she didn’t scream while being raped.

None of this is to cast Carroll as a victim. She braved the attacks. She showed what she’s made of. And without judging other women for whatever tough choices they make under such trying circumstances, she won simply by standing up to this spoiled brat of a man.

Explicitly supported by other witnesses who are women, implicitly so by countless others (as well as men) across the country and the world, Carroll withstood the waves of insults and threats from Trump and his supporters.

In fact, in the other significant trial outcome, Trump was also held accountable for the first time for his cruel barbs against women, in terms of his being found liable for defaming Carroll.

Analogously insulted, the justice system stood its ground against a man whose porcine personality reflects how accustomed he’s been to having his way with it.

Yet Again

Marcos comes to mind yet again at this moment. Just as Trump has done for decades, he manipulated the law throughout his life. This stretched back to evading a murder rap while still a law student, partly because the court considered him such a promising young man. Throughout his dictatorship, he operated under a veneer of legality, so that his defenders (not least the U.S. government) could argue that whatever he did – rampant corruption, atrocious human rights abuses – was not really his fault, or not so bad, or justified to combat a communist insurgency.

Until this week, Trump had been similarly successful in twisting the justice system to his desires. Through intimidation, delay, drowning opponents in litigation costs and many other tricks, he’d ruined lives, drained savings and scammed a variety of victims. He consistently got away with figurative murder.

True, he’d paid some prices at the margins. For instance, a court forced him to dismantle the Trump Foundation, one of his countless con jobs through which he helped himself rather than others. He was impeached twice, though never convicted. Thus, he never was brought to account in any fundamental sense.

Until now.

In addition to whining about his supposed victimization, Trump will brag that he wasn’t found liable for rape. He’ll seek to paper over the reality that sexual abuse constitutes forcible sexual contact without the victim’s consent.

So, rape or not, that reality is repugnant. Sexual Abuser is now his own scarlet letter.

Does This Make Any Difference?

As my old law school Torts professor used to ask, Is this a difference that makes a difference?

When applied to the verdict, the question makes sense for all sorts of reasons. After all…

There was the infamous Access Hollywood tape, in which Trump boasted that he could get away with grabbing women by their private parts against their will, employing (be forewarned) some very lewd language:

A month after the tape’s October 2016 release, he won the presidency, making many wonder whether he could get away with anything without paying a price. In addition…

The Republican Party’s leadership will likely continue to kowtow to him. The Republican base will probably continue to speak, see and hear no evil about its Feckless Leader. And…

A week is a short time in politics. Eighteen months until the 2024 presidential election is immeasurably longer. Other trials, scandals and events could make the Carroll case seem like a distant memory. Plus…

Those other, potentially more salient events could include the state of the economy, overseas crises, whether Joe Biden comes across as feeble or forceful on the campaign trail and matters we can’t even start to foresee.

What This Is All About

So why is this trial and verdict such a big deal? Especially if Republicans continue to rally around this flagrant abuser of women and all civilized norms?

Because it’s not about Trump’s lackeys and cultists.

It’s about us – that is, folks who value democracy over demagoguery and the rule of law over mob rule.

Seeing this scoundrel brought to some semblance of justice reminds us that he can be beaten, and not just in an election he refuses to concede. And though other issues could loom larger in next year’s presidential campaign, don’t underestimate the reality that the contest may well be won at the margins, by a relatively small swing of votes. Which in turn means that its outcome could be swayed by the lingering stink of this – say it again – proven sexual abuser.

His 2016 electoral success, despite the Access Hollywood video, may suggest otherwise. But a potential array of prosecutions of Trump could add to the weight of the Carroll verdict. And sometimes a specific, verified instance of abuse, as in Carroll’s case, can move the public – or at least the small slice that can determine even a presidential election’s outcome – more than a justified flood of trials or the Access Hollywood video’s more generalized misogyny.

Picking apart the particular is an art that Trump himself has mastered. He singles out an opponent’s alleged violation (as in the Hillary Clinton email “scandal”) such that it matters to the media and public more than his hundreds of misdeeds.

All of this brings us to Trump’s biggest trick. It’s not simply to convince his cultists of his appeal. It’s to demoralize his opponents. To cast doubt on the very viability of our institutions, our democracy, our justice system. To make us despair over the rot he’s promoted and revealed in our country.

A victory like the Carroll trial reaffirms that the rot is not irredeemable. That the rat can’t always wriggle through legal loopholes. That he can’t buy or bulldoze his way out of all accountability.

The impact of this trial, then, is not mainly about how it might affect Trump’s chances of securing the Republican nomination. It’s about what the verdict achieves against injustice, for women and for all of us battling this would-be despot’s desperate attempt to drown our democracy.

Because, for the first time, in the broadest sense of who we are…

We got the bastard.


Stephen Golub, Benicia – A Promised Land: Politics. Policy. America as a Developing Country.

Benicia resident Stephen Golub offers excellent perspective on his blog, A Promised Land:  Politics. Policy. America as a Developing Country.

To access his other posts or subscribe, please go to his blog site, A Promised Land.

Stephen Golub: From the Benicia Car Show to Our Electrifying Future

The Good Old Days Give Way to Better Days

By Stephen Golub, May 1, 2023

An electric vehicle is being charged.

Versions of this article have also appeared in Stephen Golub’s weekly Benicia Herald Column, “Benicia and Beyond,” and in his national and international affairs blog, A Promised Land: America as a Developing Country.

Benicia resident and author Stephen Golub, A Promised Land

My new hometown of Benicia, CA hosted its 28th Annual Classic Car Show late last month.

I suppose I could start discussing the event, as well as the global car market’s electrifying trends, by lamenting America’s historic love for gas guzzlers and their legacy of overconsumption and pollution.

Nah.

More on the future later. But for now…

Wow

Having wandered around the show, I must confess to being wowed. It’s the first such gathering I’ve ever been to. I have no idea how many autos were on display…400? 600?

I didn’t come away from it a classic car aficionado. But, even given the old autos’ fuel-consuming excesses, this blast from the past and slice of Americana was a lot of fun.

Most of the vehicles dated from the early 1930s to the mid-1960s. They ranged from vintage Fords and Packards to comparatively new behemoths and muscle cars.

Restoring and preserving these beauties seemed like an act of love. Proud owners stood by to answer questions, discuss the engines’ intricacies and otherwise bask in both the sunshine and the perfect shines of their prized possessions – which in most instances are kept more for show than for driving these days.

Overhearing a few of the conversations, I was struck by how little I understood. But you didn’t have to be any kind of expert to enjoy the event.

The owners were mainly male. As a friend joked, strolling amidst so many hundreds-of-horsepower stallions made him feel a surge of testosterone.

Memories

It was tough to pick out favorites from the array of gleaming humdingers. But those that especially caught my eye included a cherry-red ‘31 Model A, a gorgeously detailed Caprice and my neighbor’s dazzling ’65 Mustang, which I’ve glimpsed when he occasionally takes it out for a spin around town.

Another ’65 model, an Impala, brought a flashback to my now-distant past. An Impala was the first car I ever drove, though it wasn’t quite as old or huge as this one. My memory of those good old days was also triggered by the scent of the fragrant combustibles wafting my way from behind the car.

The gathering was fun in other ways as well. It was a family affair, with a fair number of kids and dogs. There were also loads of great food trucks. I indulged in a delicious Louisiana hot link, smothered in onions, BBQ sauce and mustard, and washed down by some freshly made lemonade. The small “beer garden” enclosure was tempting, but at 11 am I wasn’t quite ready for that.

It was the kind of classic Benicia festival that the town is known for.

In sum, a good time was had by all, whether you were a classic car junkie or just an auto layperson like me, wandering around in wonderment.

Driving With Bruce

A record collection with Born in the U.S.A. by Bruce Springsteen.
Photo by Jose Antonio Gallego Vázquez on Unsplash

Bruce Springsteen fan that I am, I couldn’t help but recall the countless songs in which he references cars: Pink Cadillac, Cadillac Ranch, Born to Run, Thunder Road, Fire, Stolen Car, Used Cars, Ramrod, My Hometown and many more.

And then there are these lyrics from Racing in the Streets:

I got a sixty-nine Chevy with a three-ninety-six
Fuelie heads and a Hurst on the floor

I have no idea what he’s talking about.

But you don’t have to understand those words to know that cars are a part of our culture, our history and our evolution as a country and society.

The Future is (Almost) Now

Which brings me to electric vehicles (EVs) – or, for the sake of statistics discussed here: all-electric, plug-in, light vehicles (excluding hybrids).

While still only a small share of the global market, annual sales are surging exponentially, from one million in 2015 to 20 million as of a year ago.

I won’t delve into the massive and well-recognized environmental benefits of shifting to EVs. Suffice to say that they are a very good thing for combating climate change, improving our air quality and enhancing our health and well-being.

Before we get too charged up about the promise of EVs, though, a few additional considerations need to intrude. There’s the challenge of installing rapid charging stations across the country, though recent federal legislation funds a substantial increase in such facilities. Then there is also the matter of sourcing the materials crucial to for the cars’ batteries, including social and economic justice challenges that the process imposes.

In addition, it takes about 17,500 miles before American EVs reach the “break-even point,” where their cumulative carbon emissions start to compare favorably with those of their internal combustion engine counterparts. (The EVs pose a greater initial environmental cost due to carbon dispersals from their manufacture and related processes.)

But that initial emission burden is a relative drop in the bucket, in view of the average car’s lifespan (including for EVs) of well over 100,000 miles. And the break-even point is gradually decreasing, due to improved production practices and the shift toward power plants that source sun, wind, hydroelectric and other sustainable energy to power EV batteries.

In Norway, for example, where autos rely mostly on hydroelectric sources (and which boasts the highest EV per capita rate in the world), the environmental balance for EVs becomes preferable after barely 8,000 miles of use.

None of this is to deny that many Americans are still wedded to SUVs and pickup trucks. But there’s great progress in this regard as well, as more of them go electric. In addition, by virtue of their especially large batteries, the Ford F-150 Lightning and other electric pickups can become virtual power plants for homes, construction equipment and myriad other uses.

This change for the better is racing down the road pretty quickly. A poll of over 1,000 automobile executives yielded an average forecast that over half of U.S car sales will be EVs by 2030, consistent with President Biden’s sales goal. The survey produced similar predictions for the Japanese and huge China markets. Whether or not we meet that target, the evolution of our automobile industry is well underway.

The Market Speaks

Will consumers actually fulfill the automobile executives’ predictions? This is where the rubber hits the road. For many buyers, this will quite justifiably hinge on environmental considerations, in terms of cutting emissions of greenhouse gases and other forms of pollution.

For many others, it will come down to price. But with expensive gasoline, increased competition and government incentives accelerating the transition to EVs, the days of trendy Teslas dominating the field seem doomed. Lower EV maintenance costs will also help move the market away from internal combustion engines.

Speaking of price, China and India have EVs on their domestic markets that respectively cost $4,600 and $5,800. To be sure, their batteries are small, they are just runabouts for driving locally and they probably wouldn’t pass U.S. regulatory muster. But the point is that a burgeoning, global investment in EVs is producing a variety of cars for a variety of uses and societies.

Beyond the Pink Cadillac

Which brings me back to the vintage vehicles, muscle cars, Springsteen’s Pink Cadillacs and so many more of today’s collectors’ items. The past is past. We can admire the old while embracing the benefits of the new for our environment, our health, our pocketbooks and our planet.

I welcome such changes. I eagerly anticipate more yet to come. But I’m also looking forward to next year’s Classic Car Show.

(Hat tip: HL, CS)


Stephen Golub, Benicia – A Promised Land: Politics. Policy. America as a Developing Country.

Benicia resident Stephen Golub offers excellent perspective on his blog, A Promised Land:  Politics. Policy. America as a Developing Country.

To access his other posts or subscribe, please go to his blog site, A Promised Land.