The Solano County Registrar of Voters posted new daily vote totals at 5:21 PM tonight, giving Kari Birdseye a narrow lead of only 42 votes.
The good news is that outstanding mail-in ballots leaned in her favor today. If that trend continues over the next few days of ballot updates, we will celebrate her election to Benicia’s City Council, along with our friend Terry Scott, who continues to lead the field of 5 candidates.
Here is the current updated count:
Click to enlarge. Read the figures at right in green.
As it stands, only 57 votes separate third place Kari Birdseye from second place in Benicia’s City Council election, a 5-way contest where the top two vote-getters win a seat on Council.
Solano County Registrar of Voters office reports that there are 51,757 outstanding vote by mail ballots and another 1,671 provisional ballots yet to be counted.
Note that these are not Benicia ballots, but countywide. I’m working on a method of estimating the percentage of the 53,000 outstanding ballots that are Benicia voters.
It does seem to me completely possible to gain 57 votes out of over 53,000 county-wide.
Solano County Registrar John Gardner stated in an email that the County “will update totals at end of business day each day until complete, and will update these outstanding ballot numbers” daily at https://www.solanocounty.com/depts/rov/November_8_2022_Election_Results/election_results.asp. “The County is scheduled to certify our results on November 30th,” Gardner said.
In an earlier post, I was too quick to presume the outcome of the election, bemoaning that we would likely have an all-male Council when the vote was finalized.
Benicia City Council race too close to call as incumbents surge in Election Day results
Benicia City Council candidates Christina Strawbridge, Lionel Largaespada, William Innes, Terry Scott and Kari Birdseye appeared at a candidates forum at the Benicia Senior Center on Wednesday. Photo: Scott Morris.
BENICIA – Early results for the Benicia City Council election show a tight race with two challengers leading in early vote by mail results, but the two incumbents led in Election Day results.
Challengers Terry Scott and Kari Birdseye took the lead early in the evening, with Scott and Birdseye in first and second place. But incumbents Lionel Largaespada and Christina Strawbridge gained in Election Day results and Largaespada surged into second place late Tuesday.
Click image to enlarge. Read TOTALS at right in green.
By 10:28 p.m., the last results released by the Solano County Registrar of Voters on Tuesday, Scott still led with 25% of the vote, followed by Largaespada with 23.4%, Birdseye with 23%, and Strawbridge with 21%. Retired teacher William Innes — who said during a candidate forum he intended to vote for Scott and Birdseye — had 7% of the vote. The county said it will release further results late Wednesday.
Benicia’s council members are elected by the entire city and the top two vote-getters will be on the council for the next four years.
The race was hotly contested, particularly because of the influence of oil manufacturer Valero, the city’s largest employer that spent tens of thousands of dollars campaigning for the incumbents in the last days leading up to Election Day.
Valero previously campaigned for Largaespada and Strawbridge and against Birdseye in 2018. Birdseye narrowly lost that race. When Strawbridge ran for mayor two years later, Valero again supported her, but she lost badly to now-Mayor Steve Young.
This year, it appeared that Valero might sit out the race following a scandal when it was revealed that the refinery had allowed toxic gas to be released from a hydrogen vent for years. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District obtained an abatement order for Valero, but what penalties the refinery may face have yet to be determined.
Valero’s political meddling was a major issue at a candidates forum in October, where Scott and Birdseye called for greater oversight of the refinery in the wake of the emissions scandal.
But Valero did not take any action during the campaign until its final weeks, when a political action committee (PAC) receiving funding from Valero sent mailers on behalf of Largaespada and Strawbridge and spent $10,000 on Facebook ads. According to filings available by Tuesday’s election deadline, Valero had spent $89,507.71 supporting Largaespada and Strawbridge.
Largaespada and Strawbridge have both denounced Valero’s attempts to influence the city’s politics. By law, their campaigns cannot coordinate with the activities of Valero’s PAC.
Tax measure also falls behind
Measure R – which seeks to raise Benicia’s sales tax – also had an early lead in Tuesday night’s returns but fell behind in Election Day results. If passed, the measure would raise Bencia’s sales tax by three-quarters of a cent, to 9.125%.
As of 10:28 p.m., the measure was failing 48-52%.
The Benicia City Council voted 4-0 to place the tax measure on the ballot during its July 5 meeting. City manager Erik Upson argued the city needed the extra revenue as its infrastructure was aging and it lacked the funds to replace, repair or maintain it. Largaespada opposed it.
The council had originally considered making the ballot measure for a special tax that would only be for road repair, which would have required a two-thirds majority to pass. Measure R is a general tax that can be spent for any purpose and requires only a simple majority of voters.
Urban Growth Boundary measure passes by huge margin
Benicia also appeared to have voted to extend its Urban Growth Boundary — a historical decision that prevents the city from expanding into the hills north of the city. It’s a renewal of a 20-year stay that voters originally set in 2003.
It only needs a simple majority (50% and one more vote) to pass.
Late today, Benicia City Clerk Lisa Wolfe posted two more campaign finance reports submitted by the Valero PAC. These reports shed light on the expenditure of an additional $18,698.61 to elect their preferred candidates for Benicia City Council.
$10,000 of this amount is for a massive social media campaign. The PAC has already set up a Facebook page.
The remaining amount, approximately $8,700, is for another misleading mailer.
With this additional outlay, the PAC has spent a total of $73,095.83 just in the last week of October.
Disclosed in these two reports are the actual images – 8 new full color ads, once again including subtly deceptive positioning of photos of Benicia’s Mayor and Vice-Mayor, suggesting that they support Valero’s chosen candidates. Mayor Young and Vice-Mayor Campbell have not supported Valero’s candidates. Both have endorsed Kari Birdseye and Terry Scott.
The ads all portray Valero’s chosen two as significant players in a City Council that gets things done. “Christina Strawbridge, Lionel Largaespada, and City Councilmembers led Benicia through COVID-19.” “Christina Strawbridge, Lionel Largaespada, and City Councilmembers Support our first responders.”
Valero seems to have learned a lesson in 2020: wait to spend your fortune in the last few weeks, and don’t bash your opposition directly – only by hint and suggestion.
The PAC has now spent over $73,000, twice what any legitimate human resident candidate’s campaign can spend. And that leaves about $160,000 in their war chest. Who knows how much they will pay out in the final week before the November 8 election?
>> And that’s a question with no forthcoming answer.The PAC will not be required to file another report until after the election, covering the period 10/31/22 – 11/8/22. This form will be due in the Benicia City Clerk’s office on 11/11/22.
The following links go to the City of Benicia website, displaying the PAC’s 2 latest reports, including images of their ads:
Note that others in Benicia are keeping an eye on Valero’s meddling in our elections – check out Benicians For Clean Elections at https://www.beniciansforcleanelections.org/
See also my page of support for candidate Kari Birdseye here on the BenIndy.
Stay tuned. I’ll let you know if/when we learn more.
By Roger Straw, November 09, 2022
Disclosed in these two reports are the actual images – 8 new full color ads, once again including subtly deceptive positioning of photos of Benicia’s Mayor and Vice-Mayor, suggesting that they support Valero’s chosen candidates. Mayor Young and Vice-Mayor Campbell have not supported Valero’s candidates. Both have endorsed Kari Birdseye and Terry Scott.
Valero seems to have learned a lesson in 2020: wait to spend your fortune in the last few weeks, and don’t bash your opposition directly – only by hint and suggestion.
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