All posts by Roger Straw

Editor, owner, publisher of The Benicia Independent
Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Solano County COVID update: 3 dead, alarming increase in cases and test rate

[Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard.  For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE.]

Friday, November 6: 136 (!) new cases overnight, 3 new deaths, 2 new hospitalizations.  Since the outbreak began: 8,132 cases, 535 hospitalized, 79 deaths.Compare previous report, Thursday, Nov. 5:Summary

  • Solano County reported 136 new cases overnight, the largest one-day increase ever.  Total of 8,132 cases since the outbreak started.
  • Deaths – 3 new deaths reported today, all 65 years or over.  Total of 79 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
  • Active cases – Solano reported an increase of 47 additional active cases today, total of 547.  This is in addition to 107 new active cases in the two previous days, 154 in 3 days.  Note that only 24 of these 547 individuals are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – Solano County reported the number of currently hospitalized persons increased by 3 overnight, total of 24.  TOTAL hospitalized since the outbreak began increased dramatically last week, adding 106 previously unreported hospitalizations!  Today the TOTAL numbers increased by 2, total of 535 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  For manual calculation of total, see age group stats below.
  • ICU Beds – The County reported fewer ICU beds available today, down from 57% to 52%.  (Still no information about availability of ventilators.)

Positive Test Rate – alarming 8.1%

Solano County reported that our 7-day average test rate rose today to a rate unseen since the outbreak following July 4.  Our rate rose from 7.2% to an alarming 8.1% today.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate has been on the rise lately, increasing today from 3.4% to 3.6%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 17 new cases overnight, total of 930 cases, representing 11.4% of the 8,132 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued just over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 14 youth have now been hospitalized.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 66 (!) new cases overnight, total of 4,767 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents just under 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  No new hospitalizations reported today, total of 178.  No new deaths in this young group today, total of 6 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 28 new cases overnight, total of 1,576 cases.  This age group represents over 19% of the 8,132 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today, total of 151.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 15 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 25 (!) new cases today, total of 855, representing 10.4% of Solano’s 8,132 total cases.  2 new hospitalizations reported today, total of 192 since the outbreak began.  3 new deaths in this age group today, total of 58 of our elders who died of COVID.  This group accounts for 58 of the 79 total deaths, or 73%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 3 new cases today, total of 210 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 8 new cases today, total of 539 cases.
  • Fairfield added 39 new cases today, total of 2,574 cases.
  • Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 63 cases.
  • Suisun City added 7 new cases today, total of 586 cases.
  • Vacaville added 30 new cases today, total of 1,516 cases.
  • Vallejo added 48 (!) new cases today, total of 2,617 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 27 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 23% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 27% of cases, 29% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 23% of cases, 25% of hospitalizations and 32% of deaths.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

2020 elections, Benicia City Council, Benicia Mayor, Benicia Mayor Steve Young, Cannabis, Solano County Registrar of Voters, Terry Scott, Tom Campbell, Trevor Macenski

UPDATED Benicia election results – Macenski overtakes Scott (Late on Nov. 5)

By Roger Straw, November 5, 2020, 7:00pm

Trevor Macenski now leading for second seat on Benicia City Council – leads Terry Scott by 60 votes – it’s not over yet!

Solano County updated its election results at 5:08pm tonight, reshuffling the candidates for Benicia City Council.  Unofficial results yesterday had Tom Campbell first with 7,245 votes and Terry Scott second with 6,269 votes, leading Trevor Macenski by 92 votes.  Tonight’s report gives Macenski a lead of 60 votes over Scott, taking second place and strengthening his hopes for gaining the second seat on Council.  But… the counting isn’t over yet.  Read on!

Outstanding votes as of Thurs. Nov. 5, 5pm

Solano County’s election result is still unofficial.  As of 5pm on Thurs. Nov. 5, the County reports an estimate of 6,000-10,000 additional County-wide vote-by-mail ballots to be received and processed, and 4,000-6,000 additional provisional ballots to be processed.  (In an email, Assistant Registrar of Voters John Gardner wrote that there are over 6,500 mail-in ballots yet to be counted.)  Benicia’s share of those 10,000-16,000 ballots has not been reported and remains unknown.  However, Benicia’s population is 7% of Solano population, and our voter turnout percentage of 88% is higher than countywide 74% – so we might count for 8% of the remaining ballots, or 800-1,280 votes.  The County will update its results at close of business tomorrow and I will report here on any significant changes in outcome.

Benicia races for Mayor and City Council – winners and losers…
Details and analysis…
  • UPDATE: 16,835 Benicia ballots were received, 82.6% of 20,393 registered voters.  Wow!
  • MAYOR results as of Thurs. Nov 5, 5pm:
    Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
    		8,245 50.95%
    		5,001 30.90%
    		2,896 17.90%
  • Steve Young continues with an insurmountable lead, winning vote-by-mail by a huge margin with 53% to Christina Strawbridge’s 31% and Jason Diavatis’ 16%.
  • Jason Diavatis (surprise!) won election-day voting with 36% (then Young at 34% and Strawbridge at 30%).  Close!
  • There were relatively few election-day votes, 1,746, compared to a whopping 14,396 vote-by-mail ballots.  Thus Steve Young’s incredible overall margin of 22 points.
  • CITY COUNCIL results as of Thurs. Nov. 5, 5pm:
    CANDIDATE NAME TOTAL VOTES PERCENTAGE
    		8,293 36.30%
    		7,220 31.60%
    		7,160 31.34%
  • Tom Campbell won re-election to City Council with the highest vote total among candidates and a margin now in excess of 1,000 votes.  By tradition, as top vote-getter, Campbell will be named Benicia’s Vice Mayor, replacing Christina Strawbridge in that role.
  • In an extremely tight race, Trevor Macenski overtook Terry Scott for second place, which, if held, would gain him the second seat on City Council.  Scott led by 135 votes in election-day voting, but now trails Macenski by 195 votes in vote-by-mail.  Macenski’s narrow final (unofficial) margin of 60 votes is subject to counting of more mail-in ballots and provisional ballots.  Stay tuned!
Cannabis results:

YES/NO TOTAL VOTES PERCENTAGE
8,269 51.53%
7,779 48.47%

Those voting YES gained a bit, winning vote-by-mail ballots by a margin of 613 votes.  Those voting NO took the election-day voting by a margin of 123 votes.  Mail-in voting far outnumbered election-day voting.  Voters cast 14,283 mail-in ballots and only 1,765 election-day ballots.  I expect that the final (unofficial) margin of 490 votes (87 more than yesterday), is likely to hold as the County counts additional mail-in ballots and provisional ballots.

Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Solano County reports 500 active COVID cases, highest number since outbreak began

[Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard.  For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE.]

Thursday, November 5: 56 new cases overnight, no new deaths, 1 new hospitalization.  Since the outbreak began: 7,996 cases, 533 hospitalized, 76 deaths.Compare previous report, Wednesday, Nov. 4:Summary

  • Solano County reported 56 new cases overnight, much higher than average of late.  Total of 7,996 cases since the outbreak started.
  • Deaths – no new deaths reported today.  Total of 76 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
  • Active cases – Solano reported an increase of 36 additional ACTIVE cases today, and 71 additional ACTIVE cases yesterday, total of 500, highest ever in Solano County.  Note that only 21 of these 500 individuals are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – Solano County reported the number of currently hospitalized persons increased by 3 overnight, total of 21.  TOTAL hospitalized since the outbreak began increased dramatically last week, adding 106 previously unreported hospitalizations!  Today the numbers increased by 1, total of 533 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  For manual calculation of total, see age group stats below.
  • ICU Beds – The County reported more ICU beds available today, up from 41% to 57%.  (Still no information about availability of ventilators.)

Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate fell today from 7.7% to a rather alarming 7.2%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate has been on the rise lately, rising slightly today, from 3.3% to 3.4%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 10 new cases overnight, total of 913 cases, representing 11.4% of the 7,996 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued just over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low.  The significance is this: 1) youth numbers increased steadily and at a faster rate than the other age groups, and 2) youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 14 youth have now been hospitalized.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 30 new cases overnight, total of 4,701 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents just under 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  No new hospitalizations reported today, total of 178.  No new deaths in this young group today, total of 6 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 7 new cases overnight, total of 1,548 cases.  This age group represents over 19% of the 7,996 total cases.  1 new hospitalization reported today, total of 151.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 15 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 9 new cases today, total of 830, representing 10.4% of Solano’s 7,996 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today, total of 190 since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, total of 55 of our elders who died of COVID.  This group accounts for 55 of the 76 total deaths, or 72%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 4 new cases today, total of 207 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 4 new cases today, total of 531 cases.
  • Fairfield added 17 new cases today, total of 2,535 cases.
  • Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 63 cases.
  • Suisun City added 4 new cases today, total of 579 cases.
  • Vacaville added 14 new cases today, total of 1,486 cases.
  • Vallejo added 14 new cases today, total of 2,569 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 27 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 10% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 20% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 24% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 27% of cases, 29% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 23% of cases, 25% of hospitalizations and 29% of deaths.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.