Category Archives: Stephen Golub

Stephen Golub: The One Court That Will Decide Trump’s Fate

This post was produced by Benicia resident Stephen Golub. Steve blogs about domestic and international politics and policy, including lessons that the United States can learn from other nations, at A Promised Land: America as a Developing Country. If interested, you may sign up for future posts by subscribing to the blog.

The One Court That Will Decide Trump’s Fate

A US Courthouse in Lower Manhattan. | Image uncredited

It’s Not Any of the Usual Suspects

By Stephen Golub, July 3, 2023

Benicia resident and author Stephen Golub, A Promised Land

It seems like you can’t tell a Trump trial or investigation without a scorecard these days. There are dozens of them.

Regardless of what you think of him, you’d think that courts in Washington, Florida, Georgia or New York would determine Trump’s ultimate legal fate.

Think again.

Let’s Be Civil

To start with, two upcoming New York City trials are both noteworthy.

The New York State Attorney General’s suit against him for massive financial fraud is set for October. She’s seeking a $250 million fine and to bar him, his family and his firm from doing business in the state that serves as his headquarters.

Following the favorable verdict for E. Jean Carroll in May, in which she won a $5 million judgement against Trump for sexual abuse and defamation, he verbally slammed her for her victory. This in turn will be a focus of her related $10 million defamation suit against him, which is slated for trial in January.

However, as civil lawsuits, the fraud and Carroll cases don’t carry that ultimate penalty of potential imprisonment. There’s even the possibility of Trump raising enough funds from his followers to at least partly offset his financial penalties if found liable. Nonetheless…

The Current Criminal Cases

A threat of incarceration faces the ex-president, through two current criminal indictments.

There’s the Stormy Daniels hush money prosecution, brought by the Manhattan District Attorney in connection with Trump paying the adult film star on the cusp of the 2016 election, in return for her not revealing their affair. It starts next March in New York City.

Then there’s the pending trial most in the news recently: U.S. Department of Justice Special Counsel Jack Smith’s national security documents case, which will be held in Florida at some point. The DOJ has charged Trump with lying about and otherwise obstructing the return to the U.S. Government of classified materials.

As the indictment states, those papers pertain to “defense and weapons capabilities of both the United States and foreign countries; United States nuclear programs; potential vulnerabilities of the United States and its allies to military attack; and plans for possible retaliation in response to foreign attack.”

Furthermore, “The unauthorized disclosure of those classified documents could put at risk the national security of the United States, foreign relations, the safety of the United States military, and human sources and the continued viability of sensitive intelligence collection methods.”

Not exactly bathroom reading, eh? Though that’s where Trump reportedly stored some such items.

But Wait! There’s More!

Finally (for now, at least), there are two additional investigations which quite possibly will see Trump indicted this year.

It appears increasingly probable that, within the next several months, Special Counsel Smith will charge Trump in Washington, D.C. for activities connected to the January 6th insurrection or various other kinds of electoral interference pertaining to the 2020 election.

The Fulton County District Attorney, in Georgia, is expected to announce in August a decision regarding whether and whom to indict regarding 2020 electoral interference, possibly including multi-state racketeering chargesrelated to Trump pushing for the selection of “alternative electors” who could have subverted the Electoral College vote.

Image uncredited.

How Many Trials Was That?

From four to very possibly six major trials loom in Trump’s future.

Nonetheless, none of them seem likely to determine Trump’s legal fate and accountability in the most fundamental manner possible: whether he goes to prison. That decision rests in the hands of another court. Here’s why.

As I’ve noted, prison isn’t an option in a civil trial.

The New York hush money case is nothing to scoff at. But it’s arguably the toughest criminal case to win against him, and the one least likely to get him imprisoned even if he’s found guilty.

Instead, what becomes of Trump could conceivably hinge on the national security, insurrection and electoral theft trials that could consume much of next year. But whether the ultimate outcomes of those cases will actually be decided in Florida, Washington or Georgia courtrooms is another matter.

There already are indications that the national security documents case could be pushed back until after Election Day 2024. For one thing, the Trump-friendly judge presiding over the trial simply could decide to finalize the date for then or otherwise stymie the prosecution. For another, special considerations regarding national security trials also could delay the proceedings. And of course, there are the delaying tactics that Trump attorneys exploit in any litigation involving him.

The complexity of the potential, election-related federal and Georgia prosecutions could also delay the prosecutions of Trump for those crimes.

But such considerations are not the fundamental reasons why the courts hearing those cases might not decide Trump’s fate, unless of course they find him not guilty. This, it must be emphasized, is certainly possible. Such a verdict could be a legitimate outcome in a given case, as much as some might think or wish otherwise. Or, in a less legitimate vein, it could prove more probable by virtue of rulings that the Trumpist judge in the Florida documents trial could make.

Democracy in Action

But let’s put aside the potential “not guilty” outcomes for now.

Rather, Trump’s dodging the legal bullets rests on his getting re-elected (or perhaps another Republican winning in 2024, and then doing Trump some very big favors). Here’s how:

  • President Trump could in effect halt federal trials that haven’t started or been completed.
  • He could pardon himself if convicted.
  • He could similarly exert pressure to get a Georgia verdict in effect negated.

More specifically, Candidate Trump has made no secret of his plan to appoint an attorney general who will do his bidding, including halting a federal prosecution. If already convicted by the time he’s elected, he’ll seek to use his pardon power to spare himself.

Now, such scenarios are not a lock. Trump could of course lose the Republican nomination or the general election. A Democratic-controlled Senate could refuse to confirm his kind of compliant Attorney General, though that might only prove to be a stopgap measure. The Supreme Court could decide that a president can’t pardon himself. Many other twists and turns could take place.

Georgia on My Mind

But what about the potential Georgia case? It should be on our minds partly because the state prosecution there would not be controlled by the (potentially Trump-appointed) U.S. attorney general and a conviction there would not be subject to the possibility of a presidential pardon. But…

In May, Georgia’s governor signed into law the establishment of a commission with the power to remove local prosecutors who “refuse to uphold the law.”  There also is the possibility that a different Georgia law could be amended by the Republican-dominated state government to allow for a speedy state pardon of Trump even if he’s convicted.

Image uncredited.

The Court That Counts

So, both federal and state prosecutions could conceivably be halted, or their convictions effectively negated.

Which brings me back to my original point. As crucial as the actual and potential Trump trials are, they probably won’t ultimately determine whether he goes to prison. As much as we yearn for the rule of law to trump politics, these crucial outcomes might not be the product of what judges and juries decide.

Rather, Trump’s legal future hinges on the November 2024 election, and on all of the intensity that will entail. That’s so sobering for a nation that prides itself on its rule of law, on no person being above the law and on justice being beyond vote counts.

In other words, the crucial verdicts regarding these profoundly serious charges will not be decided by courts in Washington, Florida, Georgia or New York.

The verdicts will be rendered by the court of public opinion.


This post was produced by Benicia resident Stephen Golub. Steve blogs about domestic and international politics and policy, including lessons that the United States can learn from other nations, at A Promised Land: America as a Developing Country. If interested, you may sign up for future posts by subscribing to the blog.

Read more from Steve by visiting his blog or clicking any of the links below.

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Stephen Golub: Despite Its Problems, Benicians (Mostly) Really Like Benicia

Despite Its Problems, Benicians (Mostly) Really Like Benicia

Benicia’s Capitol State Historic Park. | Uncredited image.

By Stephen Golub, posted June 2, 2023

Benicia resident and author Stephen Golub, A Promised Land

If you’ve been following Benicia news and social media lately, you’d probably think that our city has a number of serious problems to contend with. And you’d be absolutely right. But there’s good news as well.

First, though, the bad news:

The Budget Challenge. It entails painful cuts and revenue-raising measures in order to balance our books. There have been City Council and other meetings on this in recent months. There doubtless will be more in the months to come.

The ‘La Migra’ Challenge. Named for a slang term applied to the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service, it’s a game that’s been played by Benicia high school students annually for years. But the very name has clear racist connotations. And while some students may play willingly, not all do so. Even worse, there have been reliable reports – including in the May 12 Benicia Herald and more recently on the Benicia Independent – of minority students being harassed and even subjected to attack. For a  discussion of the problem (including TV links), go to Sheri Leigh’s superb Benicia Independent post, which was also shared on Nextdoor. A couple of useful comments suggest that the “game” was somewhat limited this year due to police and school actions this year, but it remains a horrid pastime.

The Environmental Challenge. For one thing, there was the Thanksgiving release by the Martinez Refining Company of a toxic plume that drifted over parts of Benicia. The nature and danger of the residues in Martinez and here are now being tested. On a more regular basis, there are repeated violations by Valero, including but by no means limited to pouring toxic chemicals into our air for at least fifteen years without telling us. Valero has been compounding these actions, in a sense, by pouring many hundreds of thousands of dollars into our city council and mayoral elections in recent years (though unsuccessfully in 2020 and 2022), presumably to help elect Republican and Democratic candidates it finds favorable. Though we appreciate the jobs and donations Valero provides, being a good neighbor does not include polluting our skies, politics and perhaps even health.

So why the cheery title for this column, despite these challenges? Because Benicia has the community strength, resilience and pride to hopefully overcome or at least mitigate them, as suggested by a recent survey of Benicians’ attitudes and experiences, as part of the National Community Survey (NCS). Both Mayor Young and City Manager Giuliani have recently reported on the study. I’m here to supplement their efforts by summarizing some of its results.

For a link to the NCS methodology and findings, here’s Steve Young’s very useful Nextdoor post on the topic.

The survey focused on hundreds of communities across the country. It was conducted here in Benicia from January 20 to March 3 of this year.

Overall, the NCS found a good deal of satisfaction with our city’s “livability.” That all-purpose term includes survey results for numerous different categories of life here, including Economy; Mobility; Community Design; Parks and Recreation; Education, Arts and Culture; and Inclusivity and Engagement.

Benicia came out quite well, in many respects scoring at least 10 percent higher than the national “benchmarks” – basically the national average, though the study’s Methodology section does not make that clear.

For instance, “Over 9 in 10 residents favorably evaluated the overall quality of life in Benicia (95% excellent or good), Benicia as a place to live (96%), and Benicia as a place to raise children (94%); each of these ratings were higher than the national comparisons.” The same applies to the 95% who would recommend Benicia as a place to live. Eighty-eight percent plan to remain here for the next five years.

More from the report: “About 9 in 10 respondents were pleased with the city’s overall appearance, surpassing comparison communities around the country. In addition, 8 in 10 offered above-average reviews for both the preservation of the historical or cultural character of the community and Benicia’s public places where people want to spend time. Cleanliness (92%), water resources (80%), Benicia’s open space (87%), preservation of natural areas (86%), and the availability of paths and walking trails (84%) all received ratings that were higher than the national benchmarks.”

A smattering of other results:

  • In a result that obviously spans generations, Benicia scored at least 10% higher than the national benchmarks as a place to raise children (94% positive survey replies, ranking 51 out of 378 communities asked a similar question) and to retire (78% positive, ranking 59 out of 374).
  • Benicia is a happening, hopping place! (Well, at least in some ways.) We ranked at least 10 percent higher than the benchmarks regarding vibrancy of the downtown/commercial area (71% positive, ranking 65 out of 291), opportunities to participate in social events and activities (78% positive, ranking 37 out of 311), opportunities to attend special events and festivals (83% positive, ranking 18 out of 308) and community support for the arts (80% positive, ranking 22 out of 212).
  • For the many information-oriented folks among us, the library gets good ratings too (89% positive, ranking 109 out of 332). Though it’s interesting that only 24% of us share our opinions online (ranking 173 out of 211).
  • Benicia is a great place to drive! (At least according to the survey.) Traffic flow on major streets had an 83 percent positive response, ranking 6 (!) out of 341.
  • It’s fair to note that for the majority of the approximately 150 categories, Benicia was rated similarly to other cities. Still, the categories for which it was rated 10 percent higher than other communities greatly outnumbered the six categories for which it was rated 10 percent lower.
  • The leading negative category? You guessed it: street repair (26% positive, ranking 311 out of 357 -ouch!). Also, air quality (60% positive, ranking 271 out of 302 – wheeze! – which brings us back to the environmental challenge).
  • The other four negative categories? Utility billing, garbage collection and (for results that probably don’t reflect on Benicia itself) health care costs and preventive health services.

Finally, I should note that while I’m providing comparisons to national results here, Benicia scores similarly well when compared to other Western states’ cities with populations of 15,000 to 40,000.

Having said all this, I’m not saying that we’ll solve our problems simply by virtue of liking our city. And I’m certainly not saying that our financial, racial and environmental challenges become any less severe because, for many of us, Benicia is a fine place to live.

Quite the contrary: Cities inevitably change. We lose it if we don’t improve it. It’s up to us to address the problems that plague Benicia, precisely in order to make our catchphrase, “A Great Day by the Bay,” something to honor and preserve.


Benicia resident Stephen Golub offers excellent perspective on his blog, A Promised Land:  Politics. Policy. America as a Developing Country.

To access his other posts or subscribe, please go to his blog site, A Promised Land.


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Stephen Golub: Don’t Let Duck Hunting Ruin Benicia’s ‘Great Day by the Bay’

Fish and Game Commission, Don’t Let Duck Hunting Ruin Benicia’s Great Day by the Bay

By Stephen Golub, May 29, 2023
Benicia resident and author Stephen Golub, A Promised Land

As many know, Benicia’s catch-phrase is “A Great Day by the Bay.” Well, that great day – and great years, lives, livelihoods and life savings – is endangered by a practice that puts at risk the things that make Benicia great.

I’m talking about duck hunting, which in effect takes over much of Southampton Bay and potentially all Benicia residential shoreline waters for a good part of the year. It figuratively threatens to blast away the well-being of kids, seniors, all residents, boaters, kayakers, bicyclists, strollers, folks fishing, business owners, employees and visitors within earshot of their buckshot or otherwise harmed by the activity.

To be clear, I respect duck hunters and their enjoyment of the sport. As I’m sure most Benicians do, if the hunting takes place in appropriate, secluded, safe spots.

But we’re talking about thousands of Benicians already affected in their far-from-secluded homes, and potentially thousands more, by a relative handful of hunters.

Here’s why:

For at least the past several decades, and maybe much longer, Benicia had no history or tradition of duck hunting in its residential shoreline waters. But that changed in late 2020, as a few such hunters started doing their thing here, typically setting out from the 9th Street pier. Their shots can be heard at dawn and other times of day by hundreds of households nearby.

The duck hunting season runs from October through January. There is even the possibility that it could be extended.

Imagine waking to gunfire. And not knowing exactly when it might echo through your neighborhood. The shooting can reverberate very loudly. Think of how well many of us can hear Amtrak, all the way across the water. Then compare that with the sound of shots much closer by.

That’s a reality for many residents living near Southampton Bay.

It’s also a potential reality for many more of us. There’s nothing to stop the hunters from parking themselves on the waters near 1st Street or any other waterside location that we might reside near or otherwise enjoy. Or many more descending on Benicia in years to come.

However, this problem could end if enough of us act quickly enough.

A petition to change this situation was submitted to the California Fish and Game Commission (FGC) in January of 2022. Its core request was, “Make duck hunting off limits and not permissible along the shoreline of Benicia, the Benicia State [Recreation Area] waters, or the Southampton Bay waters.” Numerous Benicians have since contacted the Commission to back the petition.

On Tuesday, the Benicia City Council passed a unanimous resolution asking the FGC to approve the petition’s request at its upcoming meeting. In person or via email, about three dozen Benicians backed the move. A few folks emailed in opposition to it, though it’s not clear whether they all hailed from Benicia.

No one who spoke opposed duck hunting in general. But the practice steps on the freedom of Benicians and their children to enjoy peace, quiet and security in and around their homes. In addition, as demonstrated by various studies, excessive stress can have a demonstrated negative impact on the health of children, seniors and everyone in-between.

This activity also can block Benicians’ ability to benefit from their investments (even including their life savings) in their homes. If they sell their houses, they may be forced to disclose the fact of regular gunfire nearby or otherwise see their value plummet. That could even affect property values throughout town.

And what about the freedom of Benicians to own a business and earn a living? Benicia’s economy and vitality partly hinge on the many recreational, commercial, cultural, historic, entertainment and other attributes that make it special. Several months a year of nearby duck-hunting could damage all that, either directly or by harming the city’s reputation.

Again, in contrast with thousands of affected Benicians, we’re talking about a relative handful of hunters who can enjoy this pastime at any number of places in far more secluded areas, not too far a drive away. I’m sure that most duck hunters would not dream of firing their guns near their neighbors on a daily basis.

Nor would they want that done to them. Nor do we want it done to us.

I could raise other potential issues relating to this matter, such as the risk of a water sport enthusiast getting shot, or gunfire close to shipping lanes, or buckshot maiming ducks that don’t get killed.

But let’s leave it at that for now.

If you’d like to weigh in on this matter, here’s what you can do:

Contact the Fish and Game Commission

Contact the Fish and Game Commission, stating your support for petition number 2022-01, which seeks to prohibit duck hunting near Benicia. It would probably be useful to include that petition number and description in an email’s subject line. The FGC’s contact information is:

fgc@fgc.ca.gov
(916) 653-4899 or (916) 653-7229

Crucial FGC discussions of whether to ban duck hunting in Benicia’s waters could be occurring right now. So if you’re interested in taking action, it makes sense to reach out to the FGC at this time, as well as the following officials.

Contact Governor Gavin Newsom

Contact Governor Newsom by googling “Contact Governor Newsom,” which takes you to a link and then a form for emailing him. You can also click this link to reach the same form: https://www.gov.ca.gov/contact

Contact our elected state representatives

Contact State Senator Bill Dodd. His Capitol office can be reached at (916) 651-4003 and his Vallejo office at (707) 551-2389 . You may also send Senator Dodd a message via web form by clicking this link: https://sd03.senate.ca.gov/contact

Contact Assemblywoman Lori Wilson. Her Capitol office can be reached at (916) 319-2011 and her District office at (707) 438-7359. You may also send Assemblywoman Wilson a message via web form by clicking this link: https://a11.asmdc.org/contact-me-0

Contact our county supervisor

Contact Solano County Supervisor Monica Brown, at (707) 784-3031 or MEBrown@solanocounty.com.

Supervisor Brown has been extremely supportive of Benicia’s situation. Senator Brown and Assemblywoman Wilson have also been laudably sympathetic, but may be holding off on weighing in until the FGC makes a decision. Hearing from constituents could help buttress their positions now and down the line.

For what it’s worth . . .

For what it’s worth, I don’t live near or hear the gunfire myself.

And again, no one wants to interfere with duck-hunting in general.

But, as opposed to A Great Day by the Bay, we don’t want Benicia to become known as A Bad Day by the Buckshot.

We just want Benicia to remain a great place to live, work and visit.

 

[A version of this article first appeared in the May 28 edition of the Benicia Herald. Stephen Golub also writes about national and international affairs at his blog, https://apromisedland.org/]


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Stephen Golub: ‘We Got the [Bleep]!’ Trump Loses, Women & Justice Win

“We Got the Bastard!”

By Stephen Golub, May 11, 2023

S

Versions of this article have also appeared in Stephen Golub’s national and international affairs blog, A Promised Land: America as a Developing Country.

From Manila to Manhattan

Benicia resident and author Stephen Golub, A Promised Land

The same sentiments cross my mind as I reflect on the results of E. Jean Carroll’s case against Donald Trump. In the legal equivalent of a New York minute – less than three hours of deliberations – a Manhattan jury held him liable for sexual abuse and defamation.

Perhaps just as important: For the first time in his narcistic, bigotry-promoting, insurrection-igniting existence, Donald Trump has been held accountable.

Women and the justice system, two forces he’s spent his life thumbing his nose at (or worse, far worse) ushered in this accountability.

The $5 million fine awarded to Carroll can’t begin to compensate for the lifelong trauma Trump triggered through his sexual abuse. That trauma continued throughout the trial, as his lawyer’s brutish cross-examination featured such wince-worthy questions as asking her why she didn’t scream while being raped.

None of this is to cast Carroll as a victim. She braved the attacks. She showed what she’s made of. And without judging other women for whatever tough choices they make under such trying circumstances, she won simply by standing up to this spoiled brat of a man.

Explicitly supported by other witnesses who are women, implicitly so by countless others (as well as men) across the country and the world, Carroll withstood the waves of insults and threats from Trump and his supporters.

In fact, in the other significant trial outcome, Trump was also held accountable for the first time for his cruel barbs against women, in terms of his being found liable for defaming Carroll.

Analogously insulted, the justice system stood its ground against a man whose porcine personality reflects how accustomed he’s been to having his way with it.

Yet Again

Marcos comes to mind yet again at this moment. Just as Trump has done for decades, he manipulated the law throughout his life. This stretched back to evading a murder rap while still a law student, partly because the court considered him such a promising young man. Throughout his dictatorship, he operated under a veneer of legality, so that his defenders (not least the U.S. government) could argue that whatever he did – rampant corruption, atrocious human rights abuses – was not really his fault, or not so bad, or justified to combat a communist insurgency.

Until this week, Trump had been similarly successful in twisting the justice system to his desires. Through intimidation, delay, drowning opponents in litigation costs and many other tricks, he’d ruined lives, drained savings and scammed a variety of victims. He consistently got away with figurative murder.

True, he’d paid some prices at the margins. For instance, a court forced him to dismantle the Trump Foundation, one of his countless con jobs through which he helped himself rather than others. He was impeached twice, though never convicted. Thus, he never was brought to account in any fundamental sense.

Until now.

In addition to whining about his supposed victimization, Trump will brag that he wasn’t found liable for rape. He’ll seek to paper over the reality that sexual abuse constitutes forcible sexual contact without the victim’s consent.

So, rape or not, that reality is repugnant. Sexual Abuser is now his own scarlet letter.

Does This Make Any Difference?

As my old law school Torts professor used to ask, Is this a difference that makes a difference?

When applied to the verdict, the question makes sense for all sorts of reasons. After all…

There was the infamous Access Hollywood tape, in which Trump boasted that he could get away with grabbing women by their private parts against their will, employing (be forewarned) some very lewd language:

A month after the tape’s October 2016 release, he won the presidency, making many wonder whether he could get away with anything without paying a price. In addition…

The Republican Party’s leadership will likely continue to kowtow to him. The Republican base will probably continue to speak, see and hear no evil about its Feckless Leader. And…

A week is a short time in politics. Eighteen months until the 2024 presidential election is immeasurably longer. Other trials, scandals and events could make the Carroll case seem like a distant memory. Plus…

Those other, potentially more salient events could include the state of the economy, overseas crises, whether Joe Biden comes across as feeble or forceful on the campaign trail and matters we can’t even start to foresee.

What This Is All About

So why is this trial and verdict such a big deal? Especially if Republicans continue to rally around this flagrant abuser of women and all civilized norms?

Because it’s not about Trump’s lackeys and cultists.

It’s about us – that is, folks who value democracy over demagoguery and the rule of law over mob rule.

Seeing this scoundrel brought to some semblance of justice reminds us that he can be beaten, and not just in an election he refuses to concede. And though other issues could loom larger in next year’s presidential campaign, don’t underestimate the reality that the contest may well be won at the margins, by a relatively small swing of votes. Which in turn means that its outcome could be swayed by the lingering stink of this – say it again – proven sexual abuser.

His 2016 electoral success, despite the Access Hollywood video, may suggest otherwise. But a potential array of prosecutions of Trump could add to the weight of the Carroll verdict. And sometimes a specific, verified instance of abuse, as in Carroll’s case, can move the public – or at least the small slice that can determine even a presidential election’s outcome – more than a justified flood of trials or the Access Hollywood video’s more generalized misogyny.

Picking apart the particular is an art that Trump himself has mastered. He singles out an opponent’s alleged violation (as in the Hillary Clinton email “scandal”) such that it matters to the media and public more than his hundreds of misdeeds.

All of this brings us to Trump’s biggest trick. It’s not simply to convince his cultists of his appeal. It’s to demoralize his opponents. To cast doubt on the very viability of our institutions, our democracy, our justice system. To make us despair over the rot he’s promoted and revealed in our country.

A victory like the Carroll trial reaffirms that the rot is not irredeemable. That the rat can’t always wriggle through legal loopholes. That he can’t buy or bulldoze his way out of all accountability.

The impact of this trial, then, is not mainly about how it might affect Trump’s chances of securing the Republican nomination. It’s about what the verdict achieves against injustice, for women and for all of us battling this would-be despot’s desperate attempt to drown our democracy.

Because, for the first time, in the broadest sense of who we are…

We got the bastard.


Stephen Golub, Benicia – A Promised Land: Politics. Policy. America as a Developing Country.

Benicia resident Stephen Golub offers excellent perspective on his blog, A Promised Land:  Politics. Policy. America as a Developing Country.

To access his other posts or subscribe, please go to his blog site, A Promised Land.