All posts by Roger Straw

Editor, owner, publisher of The Benicia Independent
Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Solano COVID OUTBREAK: positive test rate at shocking 11.4%, 234 new cases, 48 teens infected

[Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard.  For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE.]

Monday, November 9: 234 (!) new cases over the weekend, no new deaths, 1 new hospitalization.  Since the outbreak began: 8,366 cases, 536 hospitalized, 79 deaths.Compare previous report, Friday, Nov. 6:Summary

  • Solano County reported 234 new cases over the weekend, the third largest weekend increase ever (264 on July 6, 245 on August 10) .  Total of 8,366 cases since the outbreak started.
  • Deaths – no new deaths reported today, total of 79 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
  • Active cases – Solano reported an increase of 30 additional active cases today, total of 577.  The County has added 184 active cases since last Wednesday!  Note that only 31 of these 577 individuals are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – Solano County reported the number of CURRENTLY hospitalized persons increased by 7 over the weekend, total of 31.  According to a November 7 email from Dr. Bela Matyas, the County occasionally updates Age Group hospitalizations retroactively.  This accounts for the sudden 106 additions on October 29, a one-day increase of 25% in total hospitalizations.  These 106 had never been recorded as CURRENTLY hospitalized.  My take on this is that daily updates on current hospitalizations are nearly meaningless.  Nonetheless, I will continue to track both CURRENT hospitalizations and TOTAL hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  TOTAL hospitalized since the outbreak began supposedly increased by 1 today, total of 536 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  For manual calculation of total, see age group stats below.
  • ICU Beds – The County reported fewer ICU beds available today, down from 52% to 41%.  (Still no information about availability of ventilators.)

Positive Test Rate – a shocking 11.4%

Solano County reported that our 7-day average positive test rate rose today to it’s HIGHEST RATE EVER!  Our rate rose from 8.1% to an alarming 11.4% today.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate has also been on the rise lately, increasing today from 3.6% to 4.1%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 48 (!) new cases over the weekend, total of 978 cases, representing a jump from 11.4% to 11.7% of the 8,366 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 14 youth have now been hospitalized.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 125 new cases over the weekend, total of 4,892 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents just under 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  1 new hospitalization reported today, total of 179.  No new deaths in this young group today, total of 6 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 44 new cases over the weekend, total of 1,620 cases.  This age group represents over 19% of the 8,366 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today, total of 151.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 15 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 17 new cases today, total of 872, representing 10.4% of Solano’s 8,366 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today, total of 192 since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, total of 58 of our elders who died of COVID.  This group accounts for 58 of the 79 total deaths, or 73%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 5 new cases today, total of 215 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 8 new cases today, total of 547 cases.
  • Fairfield added 72 new cases today, total of 2,646 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 1 new case today, total of 64 cases.
  • Suisun City added 12 new cases today, total of 598 cases.
  • Vacaville added 56 new cases today, total of 1,572 cases.
  • Vallejo added 80 new cases today, total of 2,697 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 27 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 23% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 26% of cases, 29% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 23% of cases, 25% of hospitalizations and 32% of deaths.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

2020 elections, Benicia City Council, Benicia Mayor, Benicia Mayor Steve Young, Cannabis, Solano County Registrar of Voters, Terry Scott, Trevor Macenski

Nov. 9 Benicia election UPDATE: Macenski increases Council lead by 2, margin now 97 votes

By Roger Straw, November 9, 2020, 6:00pm

Trevor Macenski maintains lead for second seat on Benicia City Council – leads Terry Scott by 97 votes

Solano County updated its election results at 4:49pm tonight, with no changes in yesterday’s rankings.  Unofficial results today give Trevor Macenski a lead of 97 votes over Terry Scott, strengthening his hopes for gaining the second seat on Council.  Note that the counting isn’t over yet in this close race.

Outstanding votes as of Monday Nov. 9, 5pm

Solano County’s election result is still unofficial.  As of 5pm on Mon. Nov. 9, the County reports an estimate of 500-1,000 additional County-wide vote-by-mail ballots to be processed, and 2,000-4,000 additional provisional ballots to be processed.  Benicia’s share of those 2,500-5,000 ballots has not been reported and remains unknown.  However, Benicia’s population is 7% of Solano population, and our voter turnout percentage of 85% is higher than countywide 78% – so we might count for 8% of the remaining ballots, or 200-400 votes, enough to alter the vote for second seat on Council.  The County will update its results at close of business on Tuesday Nov. 10, and I will report here on any significant changes in outcome.

Benicia races for Mayor and City Council – winners and losers…
Details and analysis…
  • UPDATE: 17,341 Benicia ballots were received, 85.0% of 20,393 registered voters.  Wow!
  • MAYOR results as of Fri. Nov 6, 5pm:
    Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
    		8,467 50.96%
    		5,145 30.96%
    		3,004 18.08%
  • Steve Young continues with an insurmountable lead, winning vote-by-mail by a huge margin of 53% to Christina Strawbridge’s 31% and Jason Diavatis’ 16%.
  • Jason Diavatis won election-day voting with 36%, then Young at 34% and Strawbridge at 30%.
  • There were relatively few election-day votes, 1,746, compared to a whopping 14,866 vote-by-mail ballots as of tonight’s report.  Thus Steve Young’s substantial overall margin of 20 points.
  • CITY COUNCIL results as of Fri. Nov. 6, 5pm:
    CANDIDATE NAME TOTAL VOTES PERCENTAGE
    		8,529 36.58%
    		7,442 31.92%
    		7,345 31.50%
  • Tom Campbell won re-election to City Council with the highest vote total among candidates and a margin now in excess of 1,000 votes.  By tradition, as top vote-getter, Campbell will be named Benicia’s Vice Mayor, replacing Christina Strawbridge in that role.
  • In an extremely tight race, Trevor Macenski leads Terry Scott for second place, which, if held, would gain him the second seat on City Council.  Scott led by 135 votes in election-day voting, but trails Macenski by 230 votes in vote-by-mail.  Provisional ballots reported today went 3 for Macenski, 1 for Scott.  Macenski’s narrow overall margin of 97 votes tonight is subject to counting of more mail-in ballots and provisional ballots.  Stay tuned!
Cannabis results:

YES/NO TOTAL VOTES PERCENTAGE
8,537 51.62%
8,002 48.38%

Those voting YES gained a bit, winning 18 additional vote-by-mail ballots, now by a margin of 657 votes.  Provisional ballots went 3 YES, 2 NO.  Those voting NO took the election-day voting by a margin of 123 votes.  Mail-in voting far outnumbered election-day voting.  Voters cast 14,769 mail-in votes and only 1,765 election-day votes.  I expect that today’s (unofficial) margin of 535 votes is likely to hold as the County counts additional mail-in ballots and provisional ballots.

Kamala Harris, President Joe Biden

Anthem for the Biden / Harris era

I am in tears of joy (again) as I offer to you this moving piece.  Hearing it on our old CD earlier today, I was moved to tears, realizing it is the perfect anthem of hope for the years ahead.  Thank you in advance, Joe and Kamala!  And thank you Mamuse and Thrive.  Enjoy.  – Roger Straw

We Shall Be Known

Composed by Karisha Longaker of Mamuse, November 2016
Recorded by Mamuse  https://youtu.be/dX11MEtbkXI
Also recorded (and shared here) by the Thrive East Bay Choir  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKhjaN72dRQ

We shall be known by the company we keep
By the ones who circle round to tend these fires
We shall be known by the ones who sow and reap
The seeds of change, alive from deep within the earth

It is time now, it is time now that we thrive
It is time we lead ourselves into the well
It is time now, and what a time to be alive
In this Great Turning we shall learn to lead in love
In this Great Turning we shall learn to lead in love

We shall be known by the company we keep
By the ones who circle round to tend these fires
We shall be known by the ones who sow and reap
The seeds of change, alive from deep within the earth

It is time now, it is time now that we thrive
It is time we lead ourselves into the well
It is time now, and what a time to be alive
In this Great Turning we shall learn to lead in love
In this Great Turning we shall learn to lead in love

2020 elections, Benicia City Council, Benicia Mayor, Benicia Mayor Steve Young, Cannabis, Solano County Registrar of Voters, Terry Scott, Trevor Macenski

Nov. 6 Benicia election UPDATE: Macenski maintains Council lead

By Roger Straw, November 6, 2020, 7:00pm

Trevor Macenski maintains lead for second seat on Benicia City Council – leads Terry Scott by 95 votes

Solano County updated its election results at 5:51pm tonight, with no changes in yesterday’s rankings.  Unofficial results yesterday gave Trevor Macenski a lead of 60 votes over Terry Scott, taking second place and strengthening his hopes for gaining the second seat on Council.  Tonight that lead increased to 95 votes.  Note that the counting isn’t over yet in this close race.

Outstanding votes as of Friday Nov. 6, 7pm

Solano County’s election result is still unofficial.  As of 5pm on Fri. Nov. 6, the County reports an estimate of 500-1,000 additional County-wide vote-by-mail ballots to be processed, and 3,000-5,000 additional provisional ballots to be processed.  Benicia’s share of those 3,500-6,000 ballots has not been reported and remains unknown.  However, Benicia’s population is 7% of Solano population, and our voter turnout percentage of 85% is higher than countywide 76% – so we might count for 8% of the remaining ballots, or 280-480 votes, enough to alter the vote for second seat on Council.  The County will update its results at close of business on Monday Nov. 9, and I will report here on any significant changes in outcome.

Benicia races for Mayor and City Council – winners and losers…
Details and analysis…
  • UPDATE: 17,239 Benicia ballots were received, 84.5% of 20,393 registered voters.  Wow!
  • MAYOR results as of Fri. Nov 6, 5pm:
    Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
    		8,417 50.95%
    		5,121 31.00%
    		2,982 18.05%
  • Steve Young continues with an insurmountable lead, winning vote-by-mail by a huge margin of 53% to Christina Strawbridge’s 31% and Jason Diavatis’ 16%.
  • Jason Diavatis won election-day voting with 36%, then Young at 34% and Strawbridge at 30%.
  • There were relatively few election-day votes, 1,746, compared to a whopping 14,771 vote-by-mail ballots as of tonight’s report.  Thus Steve Young’s substantial overall margin of 20 points.
  • CITY COUNCIL results as of Fri. Nov. 6, 5pm:
    CANDIDATE NAME TOTAL VOTES PERCENTAGE
    		8,470 36.55%
    		7,399 31.93%
    		7,304 31.52%
  • Tom Campbell won re-election to City Council with the highest vote total among candidates and a margin now in excess of 1,000 votes.  By tradition, as top vote-getter, Campbell will be named Benicia’s Vice Mayor, replacing Christina Strawbridge in that role.
  • In an extremely tight race, Trevor Macenski leads Terry Scott for second place, which, if held, would gain him the second seat on City Council.  Scott led by 135 votes in election-day voting, but trails Macenski by 229 votes in vote-by-mail.  Macenski’s narrow overall margin of 95 votes tonight is subject to counting of more mail-in ballots and provisional ballots.  Stay tuned!
Cannabis results:

YES/NO TOTAL VOTES PERCENTAGE
8,478 51.57%
7,961 48.43%

Those voting YES gained a bit, winning vote-by-mail ballots by a margin of 639 votes.  Those voting NO took the election-day voting by a margin of 123 votes.  Mail-in voting far outnumbered election-day voting.  Voters cast 17,239 mail-in ballots and only 1,765 election-day ballots.  I expect that today’s (unofficial) margin of 517 votes (27 more than yesterday), is likely to hold as the County counts additional mail-in ballots and provisional ballots.